Nice

Nice CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 36 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-31
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 21 in the Ligue 1

Nice can't catch a break. 36 points when the data says they deserve closer to 41.2? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-11.5 CLS impact). High injury burden (227 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

36
Points
Expected: 41.2
41
Goals Scored
xG: 43.57
61
Goals Conceded
xGA: 59.41
5.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 33 · 2026-05-10 · vs Auxerre · away
1-2
Lost away against Auxerre

One of those games where nothing went right. Nice generated 1.33 xG, comfortably more than the 0.84 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Nice. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'S. Diop scores for Nice
27'S. Mara scores for Auxerre
70'L. Sinayoko scores for Auxerre (assist: N. Ahamada)
1.33
xG Created
0.84
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-05-10 · vs Auxerre · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.33-0.84
MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Angers · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.31-0.83
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 2.33-2.03

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Lyon · Home+2.8 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.6-3.39
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Rennes · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-1.74
MW36 · 2026-05-29 · vs Saint Etienne · Home+2.0 pts
Won 4-1 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (227 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-11.5
xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-10.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 43.6 xG - wasting chances
-6.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 59.4 xGA opponents generated
-2.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS-31

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|2 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -31, Nice are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available