Nice

Nice CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-4
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Nice are getting roughly what they deserve. 5 points vs 5.19 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

5
Points
Expected: 5.19
3
Goals Scored
xG: 5.53
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.26
0.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Auxerre · away
0-1
Lost away against Auxerre

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Nice. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
74'C. Archer scores for Auxerre (assist: C. Makosso)
1.08
xG Created
1.74
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Auxerre · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 1.1-1.7.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.08-1.74
MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Paris FC · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.8-2.4.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.78-2.38
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Le Mans · Home-0.3 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.1-1.3.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.12-1.28

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Lille · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.5-1.58
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Lorient · Home+-0.2 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.1-1.3.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.05-1.28
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Le Mans · Home+-0.3 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.1-1.3.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.12-1.28

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 5.5 xG - wasting chances
-4.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 8.3 xGA opponents generated
+2.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.6
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.2 xPTS gap)
-0.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (27 player-games missed) - squad depth available
0
Total CLS-4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Nice are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 7th).

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