Nice

Nice CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-39
CLS Score

Nice can't catch a break. 29 points when the data says they deserve closer to 33.57? 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

29
Points
Expected: 33.57
34
Goals Scored
xG: 38.07
56
Goals Conceded
xGA: 53.87
4.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Angers · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Angers

One of those games where nothing went right. Nice generated 1.31 xG, comfortably more than the 0.83 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Nice. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
33'Y. Belkhdim scores for Angers (assist: C. Arcus)
53'Tom Louchet (Nice) - Red Card
1.31
xG Created
0.83
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Angers · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.31-0.83
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 2.33-2.03
MW18 · 2026-01-17 · vs Toulouse · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-5 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-5 | xG: 1.99-1.84

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Lyon · Home+2.8 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.6-3.39
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Rennes · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-1.74
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nantes · Away+1.9 pts
Won 4-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.12-1.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (196 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-10
xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 38.1 xG - wasting chances
-7.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 53.9 xGA opponents generated
-3.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.3
Total CLS-39

Rank Per Signal

Where Nice ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Injury Burden
1
18
-10
3
Finishing Luck
1
18
-7.2
4
Defensive Luck
1
18
-3.7
4
Schedule Strength
1
18
-5.6
5
xPTS Gap
1
18
-7.9
5
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-3.3
7
Discipline
1
18
-1.3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -39, Nice are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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