Nice

Nice CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-43
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Nice: 32 points from 39 expected, a gap of 7.2. Finishing has cost them: 7 fewer goals than their 43.6 xG should produce. 16 losses, 11 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-16.4 CLS impact). Scored 7 fewer goals than their 43.6 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

32
Points
Expected: 39.18
37
Goals Scored
xG: 43.57
60
Goals Conceded
xGA: 59.41
7.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 33 · 2026-05-10 · vs Auxerre · away
1-2
Lost away against Auxerre

One of those games where nothing went right. Nice generated 1.33 xG, comfortably more than the 0.84 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Nice. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'S. Diop scores for Nice
27'S. Mara scores for Auxerre
70'L. Sinayoko scores for Auxerre (assist: N. Ahamada)
1.33
xG Created
0.84
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-05-10 · vs Auxerre · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.33-0.84
MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Angers · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.31-0.83
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 2.33-2.03

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Lyon · Home+2.8 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.6-3.39
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Rennes · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-1.74
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nantes · Away+1.9 pts
Won 4-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.12-1.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 7 fewer goals than their 43.6 xG - wasting chances
-16.4
xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-14.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (206 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-8.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.6 more goals than the 59.4 xGA opponents generated
-1.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.2
Total CLS-43

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Nice are deeply cursed at -43. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches
05-26
A
Saint Etienne
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05-29
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Saint Etienne
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