Monaco

Monaco Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-6

Luck Index Score

Monaco have had fortune smiling on them. 4.75 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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46

Points

Expected: 41.25

47

Goals Scored

xG: 48.28

38

Goals Conceded

xGA: 39.78

4.8

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 7 · 2025-10-05 · vs Nice · at home

2-2

Drew at home against Nice

A draw that felt like a loss. Monaco created 2.98 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Nice generated just 1.15 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Monaco. They got 1. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

82'M. Greenwood scores for Marseille (assist: P. Hojbjerg)

2.98

xG Created

1.15

Opp. xG

-1.3

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Marseille · Away-1.6 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.21-1.79

MW7 · 2025-10-05 · vs Nice · Home-1.3 pts

Drew 2-2 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.98-1.15

MW18 · 2026-01-16 · vs Lorient · Home-1.3 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.25-1.38

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-11-29 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home+2.3 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-1.33

MW25 · 2026-03-06 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away+1.8 pts

Won 3-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.3-1.62

MW23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Lens · Away+1.7 pts

Won 3-2 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.7-1.79

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

High injury burden (205 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-14

xPTS Gap

5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+9

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+6

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-4

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-3

Finishing Luck

Scored 1 fewer goals than their 48.3 xG - wasting chances

-1

Defensive Luck

Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 39.8 xGA opponents generated

+1

Total Luck Index-6

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain

Nice

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Monaco are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

04-05

H

Marseille

04-10

A

Paris FC

04-19

H

Auxerre

04-25

A

Toulouse

05-03

A

Metz

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