Monaco

Monaco CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-13
CLS Score

Monaco are getting roughly what they deserve. 50 points vs 45.89 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

50
Points
Expected: 45.89
52
Goals Scored
xG: 54.41
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.27
4.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Marseille · away
0-1
Lost away against Marseille

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Monaco created 2.21 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Monaco. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
82'M. Greenwood scores for Marseille (assist: P. Hojbjerg)
2.21
xG Created
1.79
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Marseille · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.21-1.79
MW30 · 2026-04-19 · vs Auxerre · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.24-0.65
MW7 · 2025-10-05 · vs Nice · Home-1.3 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.98-1.15

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-11-29 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-1.33
MW28 · 2026-04-05 · vs Marseille · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.58-2.23
MW25 · 2026-03-06 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.3-1.62

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (215 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-12.7
xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 54.4 xG - wasting chances
-2.9
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 45.3 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-1
Total CLS-13

Rank Per Signal

Where Monaco ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Discipline
1
18
-3.1
1
Injury Burden
1
18
-12.7
6
Finishing Luck
1
18
-2.9
6
Schedule Strength
1
18
-4.7
9
Defensive Luck
1
18
-1
13
xPTS Gap
1
18
+6.5
16
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+4.9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Monaco are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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