Monaco

Monaco CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 6 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+19
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Monaco have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+10.7 CLS impact). 6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

14
Points
Expected: 7.87
10
Goals Scored
xG: 6.62
5
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7
6.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-10-10 · vs Toulouse · at home
2-2
Drew at home against Toulouse

One of those games where nothing went right. Monaco generated 1.25 xG, comfortably more than the 1.49 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.2 points for Monaco. They got 1. That's 0.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
29'Edan Diop scores for Monaco (assist: Aleksandr Golovin)
38'Matthis Abline scores for Monaco (assist: Edan Diop)
48'Casper Tengstedt scores for Toulouse
59'Sion Oppong scores for Toulouse (assist: Casper Tengstedt)
1.25
xG Created
1.49
Opp. xG
-0.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-10-10 · vs Toulouse · Home-0.2 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.3-1.5.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.25-1.49
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Strasbourg · Away-0.0 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Le Havre · Away+1.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.39-0.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.51-2.32
MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Marseille · Home+1.4 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.72-1.4
MW5 · 2026-09-18 · vs Lens · Home+1.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.75-1.19

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+10.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 6.6 xG - clinical finishing
+5.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (40 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 7.0 xGA opponents generated
+1.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.5
Total CLS+19

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Monaco are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
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11-21
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