Nottingham Forest Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-22

Luck Index Score

Nottingham Forest can't catch a break. 32 points when they deserve 36.32? That's 4.32 points stolen by the football gods. 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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Points

Expected: 36.32

Goals Scored

xG: 35.8

Goals Conceded

xGA: 45.73

4.3

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Wolves · at home

0-0

Drew at home against Wolves

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Nottingham Forest created 2.55 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Wolves generated just 0.42 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Nottingham Forest. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

49'J. Acheampong scores for Chelsea (assist: P. Neto)

52'P. Neto scores for Chelsea (assist: R. James)

84'R. James scores for Chelsea

87'Malo Gusto (Chelsea) - Red Card

2.55

xG Created

0.42

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Chelsea · Home-1.8 pts

Lost 0-3 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-3 | xG: 2.35-1.67

MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Wolves · Home-1.6 pts

Drew 0-0 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.55-0.42

MW19 · 2025-12-30 · vs Everton · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.55-1.26

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Brentford · Away+2.3 pts

Won 2-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.78-1.81

MW14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Wolves · Away+1.8 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.74-0.91

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Liverpool · Away+1.8 pts

Won 3-0 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.58-1.93

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 5 fewer goals than their 35.8 xG - wasting chances

-8

xPTS Gap

4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-7

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-7

Defensive Luck

Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 45.7 xGA opponents generated

Injury Burden

High injury burden (149 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-2

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-2

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Total Luck Index-22

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -22, Nottingham Forest are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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