Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-10
CLS Score

Nottingham Forest are getting roughly what they deserve. 36 points vs 39.87 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

36
Points
Expected: 39.87
36
Goals Scored
xG: 38.18
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 47.07
3.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Chelsea · at home
0-3
Lost at home against Chelsea

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Nottingham Forest created 2.35 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Nottingham Forest. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
49'J. Acheampong scores for Chelsea (assist: P. Neto)
52'P. Neto scores for Chelsea (assist: R. James)
84'R. James scores for Chelsea
87'Malo Gusto (Chelsea) - Red Card
2.35
xG Created
1.67
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Chelsea · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 2.35-1.67
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Wolves · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.55-0.42
MW19 · 2025-12-30 · vs Everton · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.55-1.26

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Brentford · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.78-1.81
MW14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Wolves · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.74-0.91
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Liverpool · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.58-1.93

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (171 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 38.2 xG - wasting chances
-2.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 47.1 xGA opponents generated
+1.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.2
Total CLS-10

Rank Per Signal

Where Nottingham Forest ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-5.2
7
Injury Burden
1
20
-3.1
9
xPTS Gap
1
20
-5.4
9
Finishing Luck
1
20
-2.3
13
Schedule Strength
1
20
+3.1
14
Defensive Luck
1
20
+1.7
14
Discipline
1
20
+1.2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Nottingham Forest are right where they belong. Their CLS of -10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

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