Orioles CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
-6
CLS Score
Orioles are getting what their run differential deserves. 11 wins vs 11 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
11
Wins
Expected: 11
98
Runs Scored
103
Runs Allowed
0
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Pirates · away
4-5
Lost away against Pirates
Lost 4-5 to Pirates. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
4
Runs
5
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Pirates · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Pirates. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-5
MW17 · 2026-04-14 · vs D-backs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to D-backs. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-4
MW5 · 2026-03-31 · vs Rangers · Home-0.3 pts
Lost to Rangers 5-8.
Score: 5-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW23 · 2026-04-20 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Outlasted Royals 7-5 in 12 innings. Extra baseball went their way.
Score: 7-5
MW16 · 2026-04-13 · vs D-backs · Home+0.4 pts
Beat D-backs 9-7.
Score: 9-7
MW3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Twins · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Twins 8-6.
Score: 8-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Injury Burden
High injury burden (18 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.6
One-Run Game Record
2-3 in one-run games (40% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-1.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.96 vs xERA 3.77 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-1.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.313 vs xwOBA 0.316 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.3
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-0.1
Total CLS-6
Rank Per Signal
Where Orioles ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
3-2.6
Injury Burden
1
30
6-1.7
Pitching Luck
1
30
11-1.9
One-Run Game Record
1
30
17+0.3
Batting Luck
1
30
18-0.1
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|139 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Orioles are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 26th in the league - a favorable stretch.