Orioles

Orioles CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 92 games played · View MLB standings →

-24
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Orioles deserve more. 42 wins vs 42.4 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (-13.8 CLS impact). 6-13 in one-run games (32% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

42
Wins
Expected: 42.4
414
Runs Scored
441
Runs Allowed
0.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Astros · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Astros

Shut out by Astros 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Astros · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Astros 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Tigers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Tigers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Pirates · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Pirates (9-6 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm72 · 2026-06-11 · vs Mariners · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Mariners 7-5 (7-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm61 · 2026-05-30 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Blue Jays despite being outhit 11-7. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 6-5
Gm56 · 2026-05-25 · vs Rays · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Rays 9-7. 4 Rays errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 9-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
6-13 in one-run games (32% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-13.8
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.316 vs xwOBA 0.322 - hard contact not converting into hits
-5.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.29 vs xERA 4.23 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-4
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-1.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.7
Total CLS-24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|70 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -24, Orioles are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 0 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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