Orioles

Orioles CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 166 games played · View MLB standings →

-33
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Orioles deserve more. 79 wins vs 78.4 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Batting Luck (-19.9 CLS impact). wOBA 0.306 vs xwOBA 0.315 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

79
Wins
Expected: 78.4
718
Runs Scored
739
Runs Allowed
0.6
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Astros · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Astros

Shut out by Astros 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Astros · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Astros 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Tigers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Tigers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm104 · 2026-07-21 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm112 · 2026-07-29 · vs Tigers · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 in 12 innings against Tigers (9-10 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 10-9
Gm160 · 2026-09-21 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Blue Jays (6-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm155 · 2026-09-15 · vs Mets · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Mets 7-5 despite being outhit 12-8. Won on timely hitting, not volume.
Score: 7-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.306 vs xwOBA 0.315 - hard contact not converting into hits
-19.9
One-Run Game Record
18-24 in one-run games (43% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-10.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.8
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+2.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.10 vs xERA 4.11 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-1.9
Total CLS-33

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -33, Orioles are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available