Orioles CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 51 games played · View MLB standings →
-13
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Orioles are getting what their run differential deserves. 21 wins vs 19.5 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
21
Wins
Expected: 19.5
215
Runs Scored
274
Runs Allowed
1.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Astros · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Astros
Shut out by Astros 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Astros · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Astros 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Pirates · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Pirates (9-6 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm17 · 2026-04-14 · vs D-backs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to D-backs (7-10 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm37 · 2026-05-05 · vs Marlins · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Marlins 9-7. 2 Marlins errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 9-7
Gm25 · 2026-04-22 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Royals 8-6 (11-10 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Gm23 · 2026-04-20 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Royals 7-5 despite being outhit 14-6. Won on timely hitting, not volume.
Score: 7-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.91 vs xERA 4.28 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-11.8
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+5.5
One-Run Game Record
4-7 in one-run games (36% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-5.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (16 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.316 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits
+1.1
Total CLS-13
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|111 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Orioles are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 16th).