Orioles Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
-21
Luck Index Score
Orioles are getting roughly what they deserve. 2 points vs 1.6 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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2
Wins
Expected: 1.6
13
Runs Scored
Expected: 1.6
16
Runs Allowed
0.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.42 vs xERA 4.30 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-15
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.315 vs xwOBA 0.311 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+5
Diff Consistency
Run differential per game says they should be winning more
-4
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index-21
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
At -21, Orioles are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 0 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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