Red Sox

Red Sox CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 102 games played · View MLB standings →

-16
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Red Sox deserve more. 51 wins vs 54.7 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-17.4 CLS impact). 4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

51
Wins
Expected: 54.7
419
Runs Scored
373
Runs Allowed
3.7
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rays

Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm64 · 2026-06-06 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm102 · 2026-07-21 · vs Orioles · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm101 · 2026-07-20 · vs Orioles · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Orioles. 4 Orioles errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 6-5
Gm99 · 2026-07-18 · vs Rays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Rays despite being outhit 10-6. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 7-6
Gm90 · 2026-07-05 · vs Angels · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Angels 7-5 (10-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-17.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.59 vs xERA 3.96 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+9.6
One-Run Game Record
10-12 in one-run games (45% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-4.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.309 vs xwOBA 0.309 - hard contact not converting into hits
0
Total CLS-16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|60 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Red Sox are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 21th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

Next Matches
07-22
H
Orioles
Bet
07-22
H
Orioles
Bet
07-24
H
Blue Jays
Bet
07-25
H
Blue Jays
Bet
07-26
H
Blue Jays
Bet