Red Sox CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →
+3
CLS Score
13th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Red Sox are getting what their run differential deserves. 22 wins vs 23.2 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
22
Wins
Expected: 23.2
181
Runs Scored
192
Runs Allowed
1.2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rays
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Reds · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 11 innings to Reds. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 5-6
Gm9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Padres · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Padres. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 6-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm50 · 2026-05-20 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Royals (11-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm35 · 2026-05-04 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Tigers (12-3 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm22 · 2026-04-20 · vs Tigers · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 8-6 (12-10 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.85 vs xERA 4.56 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+9.1
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-3.6
One-Run Game Record
5-6 in one-run games (45% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-1.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.1
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.305 vs xwOBA 0.308 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.3
Total CLS+3
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|112 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Red Sox are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).