Red Sox CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 132 games played · View MLB standings →
-12
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Red Sox are getting what their run differential deserves. 70 wins vs 75.2 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
70
Wins
Expected: 75.2
584
Runs Scored
486
Runs Allowed
5.2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rays
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm64 · 2026-06-06 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm102 · 2026-07-21 · vs Orioles · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm117 · 2026-08-06 · vs White Sox · Home+0.5 pts
Won 12-11 in 13 innings against White Sox. White Sox left 14 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 12-11
Gm111 · 2026-07-30 · vs Athletics · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Athletics (8-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm101 · 2026-07-20 · vs Orioles · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Orioles. 4 Orioles errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-19
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.324 vs xwOBA 0.316 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+10.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.47 vs xERA 3.69 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+6.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6
One-Run Game Record
14-16 in one-run games (47% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-4.1
Total CLS-12
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Red Sox are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 14th).