Red Sox

Red Sox CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 89 games played · View MLB standings →

-24
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Red Sox deserve more. 39 wins vs 43.8 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-19.5 CLS impact). 5 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

39
Wins
Expected: 43.8
350
Runs Scored
347
Runs Allowed
4.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rays

Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm64 · 2026-06-06 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Reds · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 11 innings to Reds. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm84 · 2026-06-28 · vs Yankees · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 in 10 innings against Yankees (6-3 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 5-4
Gm50 · 2026-05-20 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Royals (11-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm35 · 2026-05-04 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Tigers (12-3 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-19.5
One-Run Game Record
6-12 in one-run games (33% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-11.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.308 vs xwOBA 0.304 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+5.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.83 vs xERA 4.09 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+4.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3
Total CLS-24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|73 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -24, Red Sox are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 18th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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