Red Sox CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
-6
CLS Score
Red Sox are getting what their run differential deserves. 9 wins vs 9.6 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
9
Wins
Expected: 9.6
89
Runs Scored
102
Runs Allowed
0.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Reds · away
5-6
Lost away against Reds
Lost 5-6 in 11 innings to Reds. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Reds · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 11 innings to Reds. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-6
MW9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Padres · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to Padres 6-8.
Score: 6-8
MW10 · 2026-04-06 · vs Brewers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to Brewers 6-8.
Score: 6-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW22 · 2026-04-20 · vs Tigers · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 8-6.
Score: 8-6
MW18 · 2026-04-15 · vs Twins · Away+0.3 pts
Beat Twins 9-5.
Score: 9-5
MW11 · 2026-04-07 · vs Brewers · Home+0.3 pts
Edged Brewers 3-2. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 3-2
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
2-4 in one-run games (33% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-3.4
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-3
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.14 vs xERA 5.61 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.305 vs xwOBA 0.309 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.1
Total CLS-6
Rank Per Signal
Where Red Sox ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
7-3.4
One-Run Game Record
1
30
10-0.7
Injury Burden
1
30
12-3
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
14+0.1
Batting Luck
1
30
19+1
Pitching Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|140 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Red Sox are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).