Red Sox

Red Sox CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 165 games played · View MLB standings →

-3
CLS Score
13th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Red Sox are getting what their run differential deserves. 87 wins vs 89.9 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

87
Wins
Expected: 89.9
689
Runs Scored
611
Runs Allowed
2.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rays

Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Rays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm64 · 2026-06-06 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm102 · 2026-07-21 · vs Orioles · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm117 · 2026-08-06 · vs White Sox · Home+0.5 pts
Won 12-11 in 13 innings against White Sox. White Sox left 14 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 12-11
Gm163 · 2026-09-25 · vs Cubs · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Cubs (9-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm156 · 2026-09-17 · vs Rangers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Rangers (5-4 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (20 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-10.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.321 vs xwOBA 0.315 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+8.2
Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-8.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.49 vs xERA 3.72 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+7.1
One-Run Game Record
21-21 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
+0.1
Total CLS-3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Red Sox are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available