Red Sox Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
+8
Luck Index Score
Red Sox are getting roughly what they deserve. 1 points vs 1.2 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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1
Wins
Expected: 1.2
11
Runs Scored
Expected: 1.2
17
Runs Allowed
0.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.298 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+11
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.90 vs xERA 6.28 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+10
Diff Consistency
Run differential per game says they should be winning more
-9
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-4
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index+8
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Red Sox are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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