Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+12

Luck Index Score

Orlando Magic are getting roughly what they deserve. 41 points vs 38.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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41

Wins

Expected: 38.5

8889

Points For

Expected: 38.5

8888

Points Against

2.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 33 · 2025-12-30 · vs Toronto Raptors · away

106-107

Lost away against Toronto Raptors

One of those games where nothing went right. Orlando Magic created 106 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 106 goals on an average day. They scored 106. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Orlando Magic. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

106

xG Created

107

Opp. xG

-0.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW33 · 2025-12-30 · vs Toronto Raptors · Away-0.5 pts

Lost 106-107 to Toronto Raptors. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 106-107 | xG: 106-107

MW70 · 2026-03-21 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · Home-0.5 pts

Lost 104-105 to Los Angeles Lakers. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 104-105 | xG: 104-105

MW2 · 2025-10-24 · vs Atlanta Hawks · Home-0.4 pts

Lost to Atlanta Hawks 107-111.

Score: 107-111 | xG: 107-111

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW61 · 2026-03-06 · vs Dallas Mavericks · Home+0.5 pts

Edged Dallas Mavericks 115-114. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.

Score: 115-114 | xG: 115-114

MW57 · 2026-02-25 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · Away+0.5 pts

Edged Los Angeles Lakers 110-109. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.

Score: 110-109 | xG: 110-109

MW38 · 2026-01-08 · vs Brooklyn Nets · Away+0.5 pts

Edged Brooklyn Nets 104-103. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.

Score: 104-103 | xG: 104-103

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

3 more wins than their point differential predicts

+15

Shot Quality Luck

Shooting 1.7% below expected from shot locations (52.9% eFG vs 54.6% xeFG)

-13

Win% Gap

Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports

+9

Diff Consistency

Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots

+1

Total Luck Index+12

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Miami Heat

Atlanta Hawks

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Orlando Magic are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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