Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-5
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Magic are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 0 wins vs 41.5 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Wins
Expected: 41.5
0
Points For
0
Points Against
41.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 55 · 2026-02-21 · vs Suns · away
113-110
Lost away against Suns

Lost 110-113 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 48% to 41% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

48%
Team eFG%
41%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm55 · 2026-02-21 · vs Suns · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 110-113 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 48% to 41% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 110-113 | eFG%: 48-41
Gm4 · 2025-10-27 · vs 76ers · Away-0.6 pts
Lost to Philadelphia 76ers 124-136. Shot 60% eFG vs their 57%.
Score: 124-136 | eFG%: 59.8-56.7
Gm14 · 2025-11-17 · vs Rockets · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 113-117 to Houston Rockets shooting just 48% eFG (-4.8 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 113-117 | eFG%: 48.4-46

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm40 · 2026-01-11 · vs Pelicans · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from New Orleans Pelicans 128-118 despite being outshot 59% to 66% eFG. New Orleans Pelicans were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 128-118 | eFG%: 59.1-66.3
Gm23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Heat · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 106-105 despite being outshot 48% to 54% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 106-105 | eFG%: 47.8-54.4
Gm20 · 2025-11-29 · vs Pistons · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Detroit Pistons 112-109 despite being outshot 44% to 51% eFG. Detroit Pistons were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 112-109 | eFG%: 43.8-50.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
41 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-2.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (7 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-1.2
Off 3P Luck
Made 46 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.3% vs league)
-1.1
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 19 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.3% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.6
Off 2P Luck
Made 43 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (54.0% vs league)
-0.4
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 20 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.5% vs league)
-0.1
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.1% FT vs league average — 3 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.1
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS-5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Magic are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available