Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+12
CLS Score

Orlando Magic are getting roughly what their point differential says they deserve. 45 wins vs 41.9 expected — neutral territory.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

45
Wins
Expected: 41.9
9491
Points For
9439
Points Against
3.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 55 · 2026-02-21 · vs Phoenix Suns · away
110-113
Lost away against Phoenix Suns

Lost 110-113 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 48% to 41% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

48%
Team eFG%
41%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW55 · 2026-02-21 · vs Phoenix Suns · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 110-113 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 48% to 41% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 110-113 | eFG%: 48-41
MW4 · 2025-10-27 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Away-0.6 pts
Lost to Philadelphia 76ers 124-136. Shot 60% eFG vs their 57%.
Score: 124-136 | eFG%: 59.8-56.7
MW14 · 2025-11-17 · vs Houston Rockets · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 113-117 to Houston Rockets shooting just 48% eFG (-4.8 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 113-117 | eFG%: 48.4-46

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW40 · 2026-01-11 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from New Orleans Pelicans 128-118 despite being outshot 59% to 66% eFG. New Orleans Pelicans were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 128-118 | eFG%: 59.1-66.3
MW23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Miami Heat · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 106-105 despite being outshot 48% to 54% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 106-105 | eFG%: 47.8-54.4
MW20 · 2025-11-29 · vs Detroit Pistons · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Detroit Pistons 112-109 despite being outshot 44% to 51% eFG. Detroit Pistons were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 112-109 | eFG%: 43.8-50.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+8.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+5.8
Off 3P Luck
Made 46 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.3% vs league)
-5.5
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 20 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.3% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+3.3
Close Game Record
56% win rate in 16 close games (+0.1 avg margin)
+2.2
Off 2P Luck
Made 43 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (54.0% vs league)
-1.9
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 18 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.4% vs league)
-0.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.1% FT vs league average — 3 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.4
Total CLS+12

Rank Per Signal

Where Orlando Magic ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Off 3P Luck
1
30
-5.5
12
Off 2P Luck
1
30
-1.9
13
Def 2P Luck
1
30
-0.6
18
Close Game Record
1
30
+2.2
18
Opp FT Luck
1
30
+0.4
19
Injury Burden
1
30
+5.8
20
Def 3P Luck
1
30
+3.3
22
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
+8.3

Tank Watch

Competing (9/100)

Orlando Magic have been consistently poor all season, but there's no second-half decline. Bad, not tanking.

First Half
23-18
0.6% win rate
Second Half
23-19
0.5% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
1.2pts/game
Late losing streaks
1 losing streak
Roster turnover (2H)
22%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Orlando Magic are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available