Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+11
CLS Score
13th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Magic are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 45 wins vs 41.5 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

45
Wins
Expected: 41.5
9491
Points For
9439
Points Against
3.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 55 · 2026-02-21 · vs Suns · away
113-110
Lost away against Suns

Lost 110-113 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 48% to 41% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

48%
Team eFG%
41%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm55 · 2026-02-21 · vs Suns · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 110-113 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 48% to 41% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 110-113 | eFG%: 48-41
Gm4 · 2025-10-27 · vs 76ers · Away-0.6 pts
Lost to Philadelphia 76ers 124-136. Shot 60% eFG vs their 57%.
Score: 124-136 | eFG%: 59.8-56.7
Gm14 · 2025-11-17 · vs Rockets · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 113-117 to Houston Rockets shooting just 48% eFG (-4.8 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 113-117 | eFG%: 48.4-46

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm40 · 2026-01-11 · vs Pelicans · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from New Orleans Pelicans 128-118 despite being outshot 59% to 66% eFG. New Orleans Pelicans were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 128-118 | eFG%: 59.1-66.3
Gm23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Heat · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 106-105 despite being outshot 48% to 54% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 106-105 | eFG%: 47.8-54.4
Gm20 · 2025-11-29 · vs Pistons · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Detroit Pistons 112-109 despite being outshot 44% to 51% eFG. Detroit Pistons were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 112-109 | eFG%: 43.8-50.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+10.5
Off 3P Luck
Made 46 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.3% vs league)
-6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+4.8
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 19 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.3% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+3.4
Off 2P Luck
Made 43 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (54.0% vs league)
-2.1
Close Game Record
53% win rate in 15 close games (-0.1 avg margin)
+0.7
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 20 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.5% vs league)
-0.7
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.1% FT vs league average — 3 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.4
Total CLS+11

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Magic are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available