Ottawa Senators

Ottawa Senators CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

-22
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Senators can't catch a break. 99 points vs 103.6 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-24.3 CLS impact). 5 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

99
Points
Expected: 103.6
278
Goals For
246
Goals Against
4.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 6 · 2025-10-18 · vs Islanders · at home
5-4
Lost at home against Islanders

Lost 4-5 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm6 · 2025-10-18 · vs Islanders · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
Gm24 · 2025-11-28 · vs Blues · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against St. Louis Blues. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm29 · 2025-12-09 · vs Devils · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against New Jersey Devils. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm39 · 2026-01-01 · vs Capitals · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Washington Capitals 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm23 · 2025-11-26 · vs Golden Knights · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm12 · 2025-10-30 · vs Flames · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Calgary Flames 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-24.3
Close Games
16-21 in one-goal games (43% win rate vs expected 50%)
-8.8
Shootout Record
3-1 in shootouts (net +2)
+8.2
OT Loss Rate
11 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+3.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.8
Total CLS-22

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -22, Senators are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available