Ottawa Senators CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 3 games played · View NHL standings →
+1
CLS Score
15th luckiest of 32 in the NHL
Senators are getting roughly what their play deserves. 4 points vs 4 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
4
Points
Expected: 4
10
Goals For
8
Goals Against
0
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 3 · 2026-10-06 · vs Red Wings · away
5-3
Lost away against Red Wings
Lost to Detroit Red Wings 3-5.
3
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.8
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm3 · 2026-10-06 · vs Red Wings · Away-0.8 pts
Lost to Detroit Red Wings 3-5.
Score: 3-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm1 · 2026-10-03 · vs Maple Leafs · Away+0.8 pts
Edged Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-2
Gm2 · 2026-10-05 · vs Bruins · Away+0.4 pts
Dominated Boston Bruins 4-1. A convincing win that the scoreline reflects.
Score: 4-1
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Close Games
1-0 in one-goal games (100% win rate vs expected 50%)
+2.7
OT Loss Rate
No OT losses - losing in regulation when they lose
-0.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.8
Pythagorean Delta
0 more points than their goal differential predicts
0
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total CLS+1
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|79 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Senators are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 26th in the league - a favorable stretch.