Ottawa Senators CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · View NHL standings →
-18
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL
Senators can't catch a break. 99 points vs 103.6 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-31.0 CLS impact). 5 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
99
Points
Expected: 103.6
278
Goals For
246
Goals Against
4.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-31
Shootout Record
3-1 in shootouts (net +2)
+10.4
OT Loss Rate
11 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+4.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.2
Close Games
Not enough one-goal games to measure
0
Total CLS-18
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|81 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
At -18, Senators are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.