Ottawa Senators

Ottawa Senators CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-17
CLS Score

Ottawa Senators can't catch a break. 99 points vs 103.6 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

99
Points
Expected: 103.6
278
Goals For
246
Goals Against
4.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2025-10-18 · vs New York Islanders · at home
4-5
Lost at home against New York Islanders

Lost 4-5 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2025-10-18 · vs New York Islanders · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
MW24 · 2025-11-28 · vs St. Louis Blues · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against St. Louis Blues. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW29 · 2025-12-09 · vs New Jersey Devils · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against New Jersey Devils. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW39 · 2026-01-01 · vs Washington Capitals · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Washington Capitals 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW23 · 2025-11-26 · vs Vegas Golden Knights · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW12 · 2025-10-30 · vs Calgary Flames · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Calgary Flames 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-23.2
Close Games
16-22 in one-goal games (42% win rate vs expected 50%)
-9.8
Shootout Record
3-1 in shootouts (net +2)
+7.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (220 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+4.6
OT Loss Rate
11 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+3.6
Total CLS-17

Rank Per Signal

Where Ottawa Senators ranks among NHL teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Pythagorean Delta
1
32
-23.2
8
Close Games
1
32
-9.8
23
Shootout Record
1
32
+7.8
24
OT Loss Rate
1
32
+3.6
27
Injury Burden
1
32
+4.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -17, Ottawa Senators are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available