Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

0
Luck Index Score

Toronto Maple Leafs are getting roughly what they deserve. 77 points vs 75 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

77
Points
Expected: 75
236
Goals For
Expected: 75
268
Goals Against
2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 16 · 2025-11-09 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · at home
4-5
Lost at home against Carolina Hurricanes

One of those games where nothing went right. Toronto Maple Leafs created 4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 4. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Toronto Maple Leafs. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

4
xG Created
5
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-11-09 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5
MW3 · 2025-10-13 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Detroit Red Wings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3
MW8 · 2025-10-24 · vs Buffalo Sabres · Away-0.8 pts
Lost to Buffalo Sabres 3-5.
Score: 3-5 | xG: 3-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW75 · 2026-03-30 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Anaheim Ducks 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4
MW73 · 2026-03-25 · vs New York Rangers · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Rangers 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW48 · 2026-01-17 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 more points than their goal differential predicts
0
Close Games
14-16 in one-goal games (47% win rate vs expected 50%)
0
Shootout Record
1-4 in shootouts (net -3)
0
OT Loss Rate
13 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
0
Total Luck Index0

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Montréal Canadiens
Montréal Canadiens
44W-21L-10OTL
+22Lucky
#6 in league
Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins
43W-25L-8OTL
+11Neutral
#8 in league
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators
39W-26L-10OTL
-20Unlucky
#11 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Toronto Maple Leafs are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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