Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

-16
CLS Score
12th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Maple Leafs can't catch a break. 78 points vs 77.1 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help. Top driver: Shootout Record (-11.1 CLS impact). 1-4 in shootouts (net -3)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

78
Points
Expected: 77.1
253
Goals For
299
Goals Against
0.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 16 · 2025-11-09 · vs Hurricanes · at home
5-4
Lost at home against Hurricanes

Lost 4-5 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm16 · 2025-11-09 · vs Hurricanes · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
Gm81 · 2026-04-13 · vs Stars · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 5-6 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 5-6
Gm3 · 2025-10-13 · vs Red Wings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Detroit Red Wings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm75 · 2026-03-30 · vs Ducks · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Anaheim Ducks 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm73 · 2026-03-25 · vs Rangers · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Rangers 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm48 · 2026-01-17 · vs Jets · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Shootout Record
1-4 in shootouts (net -3)
-11.1
Close Games
14-18 in one-goal games (44% win rate vs expected 50%)
-7.7
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+4.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (18 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.5
OT Loss Rate
14 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+2.7
Total CLS-16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Maple Leafs are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available