Toronto Maple Leafs CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 4 games played · View NHL standings →
-4
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL
Maple Leafs are getting roughly what their play deserves. 4 points vs 4.4 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
4
Points
Expected: 4.4
11
Goals For
11
Goals Against
0.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2026-09-29 · vs Canadiens · at home
3-2
Lost at home against Canadiens
Lost 2-3 against Montréal Canadiens. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
2
Goals
3
Opp. Goals
-0.8
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm1 · 2026-09-29 · vs Canadiens · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Montréal Canadiens. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3
Gm3 · 2026-10-03 · vs Senators · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm4 · 2026-10-06 · vs Predators · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Nashville Predators 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm2 · 2026-09-30 · vs Islanders · Home+0.7 pts
Edged New York Islanders 2-1. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 2-1
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
0 more points than their goal differential predicts
-1.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (15 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.1
OT Loss Rate
No OT losses - losing in regulation when they lose
-1
Close Games
2-2 in one-goal games (50% win rate vs expected 50%)
0
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total CLS-4
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|78 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Maple Leafs are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).