Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-18
CLS Score

Toronto Maple Leafs can't catch a break. 78 points vs 77.1 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

78
Points
Expected: 77.1
253
Goals For
299
Goals Against
0.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 16 · 2025-11-09 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · at home
4-5
Lost at home against Carolina Hurricanes

Lost 4-5 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-11-09 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
MW81 · 2026-04-13 · vs Dallas Stars · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 5-6 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 5-6
MW3 · 2025-10-13 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Detroit Red Wings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW75 · 2026-03-30 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Anaheim Ducks 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
MW73 · 2026-03-25 · vs New York Rangers · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Rangers 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW48 · 2026-01-17 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Shootout Record
1-4 in shootouts (net -3)
-11.5
Close Games
14-18 in one-goal games (44% win rate vs expected 50%)
-8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.1
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+4.8
OT Loss Rate
14 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+2.8
Total CLS-18

Rank Per Signal

Where Toronto Maple Leafs ranks among NHL teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Injury Burden
1
32
-6.1
6
Shootout Record
1
32
-11.5
11
Close Games
1
32
-8
19
Pythagorean Delta
1
32
+4.8
21
OT Loss Rate
1
32
+2.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Toronto Maple Leafs are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available