Toronto Maple Leafs CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · View NHL standings →
-13
CLS Score
13th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL
Maple Leafs are getting roughly what their play deserves. 78 points vs 77.1 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
78
Points
Expected: 77.1
253
Goals For
299
Goals Against
0.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Shootout Record
1-4 in shootouts (net -3)
-15.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (18 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.8
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+6.2
OT Loss Rate
14 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+3.7
Close Games
Not enough one-goal games to measure
0
Total CLS-13
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|81 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Maple Leafs are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 14th).