Paris FC

Paris FC CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+8
CLS Score

Paris FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 38 points vs 35.31 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

38
Points
Expected: 35.31
40
Goals Scored
xG: 38.68
46
Goals Conceded
xGA: 50.95
2.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-07 · vs Rennes · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Rennes

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Paris FC generated 1.98 xG, comfortably more than the 0.75 their opponent managed. Rennes generated just 0.75 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Paris FC. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
81'B. Embolo scores for Rennes (assist: V. Rongier)
1.98
xG Created
0.75
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-07 · vs Rennes · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.98-0.75
MW9 · 2025-10-24 · vs Nantes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.19-0.9
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Angers · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.92-0.97

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.55-2.57
MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Nice · Home+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.23-1.24
MW7 · 2025-10-03 · vs Lorient · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.02-0.97

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 38.7 xG - clinical finishing
+6.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (171 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.7
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 51.0 xGA opponents generated
+3.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.6
Total CLS+8

Rank Per Signal

Where Paris FC ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Discipline
1
18
-2.4
6
Injury Burden
1
18
-5.7
8
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-0.6
11
xPTS Gap
1
18
+4.1
13
Schedule Strength
1
18
+2.7
14
Defensive Luck
1
18
+3.8
15
Finishing Luck
1
18
+6.1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

PAR
Paris Saint Germain
20W-3D-5L
+16Lucky
#1 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Paris FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 4 opponents average 5th in the league - a tough run.

Next Matches
04-26
H
Lille
Bet
05-03
H
Stade Brestois 29
Bet
05-10
A
Rennes
Bet
05-17
H
Paris Saint Germain
Bet