Paris FC

Paris FC Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-7
Luck Index Score

Paris FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 31 points vs 30.94 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

31
Points
Expected: 30.94
32
Goals Scored
xG: 33.54
43
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.3
0.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-07 · vs Rennes · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Rennes

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Paris FC generated 1.98 xG, comfortably more than the 0.75 their opponent managed. Rennes generated just 0.75 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Paris FC. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
81'B. Embolo scores for Rennes (assist: V. Rongier)
1.98
xG Created
0.75
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-07 · vs Rennes · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.98-0.75
MW9 · 2025-10-24 · vs Nantes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.19-0.9
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Angers · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.92-0.97

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.55-2.57
MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Nice · Home+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.23-1.24
MW7 · 2025-10-03 · vs Lorient · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.02-0.97

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (164 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 46.3 xGA opponents generated
+3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 33.5 xG - wasting chances
-2
xPTS Gap
0 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1
Total Luck Index-8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
20W-3D-4L
+31Lucky
#1 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Paris FC are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
04-05
A
Lorient
Bet
04-10
H
Monaco
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04-19
A
Metz
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04-26
H
Lille
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05-03
H
Stade Brestois 29
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