Season

Paris FC CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

CLS Score

10th luckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Paris FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 44 points vs 41.75 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 41.75

Goals Scored

xG: 45

Goals Conceded

xGA: 55.83

2.3

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-07 · vs Rennes · at home

0-1

Lost at home against Rennes

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Paris FC generated 1.98 xG, comfortably more than the 0.75 their opponent managed. Rennes generated just 0.75 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Paris FC. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

81'B. Embolo scores for Rennes (assist: V. Rongier)

1.98

xG Created

0.75

Opp. xG

-2.2

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-07 · vs Rennes · Home-2.2 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.98-0.75

MW9 · 2025-10-24 · vs Nantes · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.19-0.9

MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Angers · Away-1.3 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.92-0.97

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away+2.2 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.55-2.57

MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Nice · Home+1.6 pts

Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.23-1.24

MW7 · 2025-10-03 · vs Lorient · Home+1.6 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.02-0.97

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 more goals than their 45.0 xG - clinical finishing

+6.7

Defensive Luck

Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 55.8 xGA opponents generated

+5.8

Injury Burden

High injury burden (191 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-5.7

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-4.2

xPTS Gap

2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+3.8

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-1.9

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-0.5

Total CLS+4

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Paris FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available