Paris FC

Paris FC CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-1
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Paris FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 11 points vs 10.05 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

11
Points
Expected: 10.05
8
Goals Scored
xG: 8.82
3
Goals Conceded
xGA: 3.36
1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Estac Troyes · away
0-0
Drew away against Estac Troyes

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Paris FC generated 1.8 xG, comfortably more than the 0.42 their opponent managed. Estac Troyes generated just 0.42 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Paris FC. They got 1. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

1.8
xG Created
0.42
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Estac Troyes · Away-1.4 pts
Drew 0-0 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.8-0.42
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Lyon · Home-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.3-0.5.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.3-0.5
MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Nice · Home+0.7 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 2.4-0.8.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 2.38-0.78

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Strasbourg · Home+0.9 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 1.1-0.2.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.05-0.24
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Marseille · Away+0.7 pts
Won 3-2 away. xG: 3.3-1.4.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 3.29-1.42
MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Nice · Home+0.7 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 2.4-0.8.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 2.38-0.78

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.6
xPTS Gap
0.9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (25 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.7
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 3.4 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-0.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.8 fewer goals than their 8.8 xG - wasting chances
-0.4
Total CLS-1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

PAR
Paris Saint Germain
2W-2D-1L
+1Neutral
#6 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Paris FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

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