Parma CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →
+5
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A
Parma are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 3.89 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
4
Points
Expected: 3.89
4
Goals Scored
xG: 3.41
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.92
0.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Cagliari · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Cagliari
One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.2 points for Parma. They got 0. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
79'A. Romano scores for Cagliari (assist: M. Adopo)
0.75
xG Created
0.94
Opp. xG
-1.2
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Cagliari · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.75-0.94
MW4 · 2026-09-14 · vs Como · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 1.1-3.0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.15-2.98
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Juventus · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.3-1.6.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.25-1.58
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Genoa · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.53-0.7
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Monza · Home+0.3 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 0.7-1.7.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.73-1.72
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Juventus · Away+-0.4 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.3-1.6.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.25-1.58
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.6 more goals than their 3.4 xG - clinical finishing
+1.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (15 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.9 fewer goals than the 7.9 xGA opponents generated
+0.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.1
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.1 xPTS gap)
0
Total CLS+5
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Parma are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).