Season

Parma CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

CLS Score

10th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Parma are getting roughly what they deserve. 42 points vs 36.61 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 36.61

Goals Scored

xG: 30.91

Goals Conceded

xGA: 55.89

5.4

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Cagliari · away

0-2

Lost away against Cagliari

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Parma generated 1.96 xG, comfortably more than the 1.13 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Parma. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

33'Y. Mina scores for Cagliari

77'M. Felici scores for Cagliari

1.96

xG Created

1.13

Opp. xG

-1.9

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Cagliari · Away-1.9 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.96-1.13

MW9 · 2025-10-29 · vs AS Roma · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.21-1.01

MW6 · 2025-10-04 · vs Lecce · Home-1.4 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.59-0.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-08 · vs Bologna · Away+2.5 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.18-1.11

MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs AC Milan · Away+2.4 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.46-1.54

MW16 · 2025-12-27 · vs Fiorentina · Home+1.9 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.95-1.23

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck

Conceded 10 fewer goals than the 55.9 xGA opponents generated

+8.5

xPTS Gap

5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+7.3

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-5.2

Injury Burden

High injury burden (163 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-4

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 30.9 xG - wasting chances

-3.1

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+1.6

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-0.1

Total CLS+5

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Parma are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

05-24

Sassuolo

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