Parma

Parma Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+2
Luck Index Score

Parma are getting roughly what they deserve. 35 points vs 32.49 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

35
Points
Expected: 32.49
22
Goals Scored
xG: 26.42
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.35
2.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-29 · vs AS Roma · away
1-2
Lost away against AS Roma

One of those games where nothing went right. Parma generated 1.21 xG, comfortably more than the 1.01 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Parma. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
33'Y. Mina scores for Cagliari
77'M. Felici scores for Cagliari
1.21
xG Created
1.01
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Cagliari · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.96-1.13
MW9 · 2025-10-29 · vs AS Roma · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.21-1.01
MW6 · 2025-10-04 · vs Lecce · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.59-0.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-08 · vs Bologna · Away+2.5 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.18-1.11
MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs AC Milan · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.46-1.54
MW16 · 2025-12-27 · vs Fiorentina · Home+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.95-1.23

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 26.4 xG - wasting chances
-6.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 44.4 xGA opponents generated
+4.9
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (131 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.4
Total Luck Index+2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Juventus
Juventus
16W-9D-6L
-2Neutral
#5 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Parma are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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