Parma

Parma CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+5
CLS Score

Parma are getting roughly what they deserve. 39 points vs 34.4 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

39
Points
Expected: 34.4
24
Goals Scored
xG: 27.84
40
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.7
4.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Cagliari · away
0-2
Lost away against Cagliari

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Parma generated 1.96 xG, comfortably more than the 1.13 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Parma. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
33'Y. Mina scores for Cagliari
77'M. Felici scores for Cagliari
1.96
xG Created
1.13
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Cagliari · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.96-1.13
MW9 · 2025-10-29 · vs AS Roma · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.21-1.01
MW6 · 2025-10-04 · vs Lecce · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.59-0.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-08 · vs Bologna · Away+2.5 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.18-1.11
MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs AC Milan · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.46-1.54
MW16 · 2025-12-27 · vs Fiorentina · Home+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.95-1.23

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 46.7 xGA opponents generated
+5.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 27.8 xG - wasting chances
-4.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (132 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.2
Total CLS+5

Rank Per Signal

Where Parma ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

7
Schedule Strength
1
20
-3.5
8
Finishing Luck
1
20
-4.2
9
Injury Burden
1
20
-1.8
10
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+0.2
14
xPTS Gap
1
20
+6.6
16
Defensive Luck
1
20
+5.5
17
Discipline
1
20
+2.2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Juventus
Juventus
18W-9D-6L
+7Neutral
#4 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Parma are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

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