Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-37
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Rayo Vallecano can't catch a break. 47 points when the data says they deserve closer to 53.63? 12 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-19.3 CLS impact). Scored 13 fewer goals than their 51.6 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

47
Points
Expected: 53.63
39
Goals Scored
xG: 51.56
43
Goals Conceded
xGA: 47.6
6.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2025-09-28 · vs Sevilla · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Sevilla

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Rayo Vallecano generated 1.89 xG, comfortably more than the 0.63 their opponent managed. Sevilla generated just 0.63 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Rayo Vallecano. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
87'A. Adams scores for Sevilla (assist: J. A. Carmona)
90+7'Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano) - Red Card
1.89
xG Created
0.63
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-09-28 · vs Sevilla · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.89-0.63
MW31 · 2026-04-12 · vs Mallorca · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.95-1.68
MW29 · 2026-03-22 · vs Barcelona · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.56-1.39

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW34 · 2026-05-03 · vs Getafe · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.83-1.38
MW32 · 2026-04-23 · vs Espanyol · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.6-1.96
MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Real Sociedad · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.8-0.79

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 13 fewer goals than their 51.6 xG - wasting chances
-19.3
xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-11.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 47.6 xGA opponents generated
+5.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-4.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (160 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1
Total CLS-37

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -37, Rayo Vallecano are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
05-23
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