Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-47
Luck Index Score

Rayo Vallecano are the definition of "we deserved more." With 35 points from 43.56 expected, they've been robbed of 8.56 points this season. 11 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 12 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

35
Points
Expected: 43.56
29
Goals Scored
xG: 40.95
35
Goals Conceded
xGA: 37.64
8.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2025-09-28 · vs Sevilla · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Sevilla

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Rayo Vallecano generated 1.89 xG, comfortably more than the 0.63 their opponent managed. Sevilla generated just 0.63 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Rayo Vallecano. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
87'A. Adams scores for Sevilla (assist: J. A. Carmona)
90+7'Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano) - Red Card
1.89
xG Created
0.63
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-09-28 · vs Sevilla · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.89-0.63
MW29 · 2026-03-22 · vs Barcelona · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.56-1.39
MW13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Oviedo · Away-1.3 pts
Drew 0-0 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.74-0.43

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Real Sociedad · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.8-0.79
MW10 · 2025-10-26 · vs Alaves · Home+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.18-0.84
MW9 · 2025-10-19 · vs Levante · Away+1.2 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.55-0.91

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 12 fewer goals than their 41.0 xG - wasting chances
-21
xPTS Gap
9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-17
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 37.6 xGA opponents generated
+3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (105 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3
Total Luck Index-47

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
17W-6D-6L
+54Blessed
#4 in league
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
22W-3D-4L
+28Lucky
#2 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Rayo Vallecano are deeply cursed at -47. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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