Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-6
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Rayo Vallecano are getting roughly what they deserve. 8 points vs 8.08 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

8
Points
Expected: 8.08
11
Goals Scored
xG: 8.87
16
Goals Conceded
xGA: 12.35
0.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-15 · vs Sevilla · away
1-2
Lost away against Sevilla

One of those games where nothing went right. Rayo Vallecano generated 1.89 xG, comfortably more than the 2.19 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.2 points for Rayo Vallecano. They got 0. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
4'A. Garcia scores for Rayo Vallecano
52'J. Guridi scores for Sevilla
88'Kike Salas (Sevilla) - Red Card
90'Peque scores for Sevilla
1.89
xG Created
2.19
Opp. xG
-1.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-15 · vs Sevilla · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.89-2.19
MW7 · 2026-09-19 · vs Osasuna · Away-0.7 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.0-0.5.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.01-0.53
MW5 · 2026-09-12 · vs Real Madrid · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 1-4 away. xG: 1.2-2.6.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.21-2.62

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-09-15 · vs Espanyol · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.52-1.49
MW4 · 2026-09-05 · vs Racing Santander · Home+0.8 pts
Won 3-2 home. xG: 1.6-0.5.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.61-0.48
MW2 · 2026-08-20 · vs Alaves · Home+0.6 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 0.4-2.0.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.42-2

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 12.3 xGA opponents generated
-3.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 8.9 xG - clinical finishing
+3.5
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (37 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.5
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.1 xPTS gap)
-0.2
Total CLS-6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Rayo Vallecano are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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