Rays

Rays CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 164 games played · View MLB standings →

+85
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Rays are riding sequencing luck. 98 wins from 90.2 expected by run differential — the kind of overperformance that usually regresses inside a month in baseball. Enjoy the view from up here. Top driver: Batting Luck (+28.3 CLS impact). wOBA 0.322 vs xwOBA 0.304 - batters outperforming their contact quality

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

98
Wins
Expected: 90.2
736
Runs Scored
650
Runs Allowed
7.8
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 39 · 2026-05-09 · vs Red Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against Red Sox

Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm39 · 2026-05-09 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm51 · 2026-05-23 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm59 · 2026-06-01 · vs Tigers · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Tigers (8-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm153 · 2026-09-16 · vs Athletics · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Athletics (9-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm143 · 2026-09-04 · vs Rangers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Rangers (12-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way. Read match report →
Score: 7-6
Gm138 · 2026-08-30 · vs Padres · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 in 11 innings against Padres (7-6 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.322 vs xwOBA 0.304 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+28.3
Pythagorean Delta
8 more wins than their run differential predicts
+26.7
One-Run Game Record
25-14 in one-run games (64% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+20.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.76 vs xERA 3.98 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+7.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2.4
Total CLS+85

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +85, Rays are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available