Rays Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
-7
Luck Index Score
Rays are getting roughly what they deserve. 2 points vs 2.1 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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2
Wins
Expected: 2.1
26
Runs Scored
Expected: 2.1
24
Runs Allowed
0.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.339 vs xwOBA 0.321 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+20
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.57 vs xERA 4.90 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-10
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-9
Diff Consistency
Run differential per game says they should be winning more
-8
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index-7
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Rays are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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