Rays

Rays CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 131 games played · View MLB standings →

+73
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Rays are riding sequencing luck. 76 wins from 68.9 expected by run differential — the kind of overperformance that usually regresses inside a month in baseball. Enjoy the view from up here. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+27.3 CLS impact). 7 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

76
Wins
Expected: 68.9
584
Runs Scored
542
Runs Allowed
7.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 39 · 2026-05-09 · vs Red Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against Red Sox

Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm39 · 2026-05-09 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm51 · 2026-05-23 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm59 · 2026-06-01 · vs Tigers · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Tigers (8-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm128 · 2026-08-19 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Blue Jays (8-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6
Gm126 · 2026-08-17 · vs Orioles · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Orioles. Orioles left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm115 · 2026-08-04 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Rockies 9-7 (12-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 9-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 more wins than their run differential predicts
+27.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.325 vs xwOBA 0.307 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+26.5
One-Run Game Record
18-13 in one-run games (58% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+10.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.93 vs xERA 4.17 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+7.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.6
Total CLS+73

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +73, Rays are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain. Their next 5 opponents average 19th in the league - a favorable stretch. Easier opponents might soften the landing, but the drop is still expected.

Next Matches
08-23
A
Orioles
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08-24
A
Tigers
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08-25
A
Tigers
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08-26
A
Tigers
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08-28
H
Padres
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