Rays CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
+19
CLS Score
Rays have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
12
Wins
Expected: 10
104
Runs Scored
115
Runs Allowed
2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-03-26 · vs Cardinals · away
7-9
Lost away against Cardinals
Lost to Cardinals 7-9.
7
Runs
9
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW1 · 2026-03-26 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Cardinals 7-9.
Score: 7-9
MW2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Cardinals. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-6
MW7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Twins · Away-0.2 pts
Blown out by Twins 4-10. Tough day at the ballpark.
Score: 4-10
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW20 · 2026-04-18 · vs Pirates · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Pirates 8-7 in 13 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 8-7
MW15 · 2026-04-12 · vs Yankees · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Yankees 5-4. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 5-4
MW14 · 2026-04-11 · vs Yankees · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Yankees 5-4 in 10 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 5-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+9.5
One-Run Game Record
4-1 in one-run games (80% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+5.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.320 vs xwOBA 0.307 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+3.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.60 vs xERA 5.13 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.3
Total CLS+19
Rank Per Signal
Where Rays ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
13-0.3
Injury Burden
1
30
25+9.5
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
25+1.3
Pitching Luck
1
30
26+5.3
One-Run Game Record
1
30
28+3.2
Batting Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|140 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Rays are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.