Rays

Rays CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 49 games played · View MLB standings →

+53
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Rays are riding sequencing luck. 33 wins from 28.1 expected by run differential — the kind of overperformance that usually regresses inside a month in baseball. Enjoy the view from up here. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+17.6 CLS impact). 5 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

33
Wins
Expected: 28.1
232
Runs Scored
192
Runs Allowed
4.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 39 · 2026-05-09 · vs Red Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against Red Sox

Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm39 · 2026-05-09 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm1 · 2026-03-26 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Cardinals. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 7-9
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 5-6 to Cardinals in 10 innings (7-6 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm42 · 2026-05-12 · vs Blue Jays · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Blue Jays (13-7 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 7-6
Gm35 · 2026-05-05 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Blue Jays (11-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm20 · 2026-04-18 · vs Pirates · Away+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 in 13 innings against Pirates. Pirates left 12 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 8-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 more wins than their run differential predicts
+17.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.326 vs xwOBA 0.308 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+17
One-Run Game Record
9-1 in one-run games (90% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+13.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.44 vs xERA 3.98 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+7.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (16 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.7
Total CLS+53

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|113 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +53, Rays are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

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