Rays

Rays CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 88 games played · View MLB standings →

+58
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Rays are riding sequencing luck. 52 wins from 46.8 expected by run differential — the kind of overperformance that usually regresses inside a month in baseball. Enjoy the view from up here. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+22.0 CLS impact). 5 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

52
Wins
Expected: 46.8
396
Runs Scored
359
Runs Allowed
5.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 39 · 2026-05-09 · vs Red Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against Red Sox

Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm39 · 2026-05-09 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm51 · 2026-05-23 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm59 · 2026-06-01 · vs Tigers · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Tigers (8-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm76 · 2026-06-21 · vs Nationals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Nationals (10-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm67 · 2026-06-10 · vs Red Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Red Sox 7-5 (13-6 H). Dominated with the bat (13 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 7-5
Gm66 · 2026-06-09 · vs Red Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Red Sox (12-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 more wins than their run differential predicts
+22
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.62 vs xERA 4.36 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+17.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.325 vs xwOBA 0.311 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+14.9
One-Run Game Record
11-9 in one-run games (55% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.5
Total CLS+58

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|74 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +58, Rays are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain. Their next 5 opponents average 8th in the league - a tough run. The schedule only makes the cliff steeper.

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