Blue Jays CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 51 games played · View MLB standings →
-12
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Blue Jays are getting what their run differential deserves. 23 wins vs 23.9 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
23
Wins
Expected: 23.9
202
Runs Scored
212
Runs Allowed
0.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against White Sox
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm8 · 2026-04-03 · vs White Sox · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 in 10 innings to White Sox. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 4-5
Gm26 · 2026-04-24 · vs Guardians · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Guardians (9-10 H). Guardians were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm17 · 2026-04-14 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Brewers 9-7 (13-12 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 9-7
Gm13 · 2026-04-08 · vs Dodgers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Dodgers. Dodgers left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Athletics · Home+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 in 11 innings against Athletics (14-8 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 8-7
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
5-10 in one-run games (33% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-6.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (19 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-2.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.301 vs xwOBA 0.301 - hard contact not converting into hits
+2.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.66 vs xERA 3.74 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-0.3
Total CLS-12
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|111 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Blue Jays are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 15th).