Blue Jays CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 123 games played · View MLB standings →
+7
CLS Score
13th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Blue Jays are getting what their run differential deserves. 58 wins vs 54.4 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
58
Wins
Expected: 54.4
476
Runs Scored
532
Runs Allowed
3.6
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against White Sox
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm79 · 2026-06-21 · vs Cubs · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm8 · 2026-04-03 · vs White Sox · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 in 10 innings to White Sox. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 4-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm120 · 2026-08-08 · vs Phillies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Phillies 7-5 (10-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm119 · 2026-08-07 · vs Phillies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Phillies. Phillies left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 5-4
Gm117 · 2026-08-05 · vs Astros · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 in 10 innings against Astros despite being outhit 10-5. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 5-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+16.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (15 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9.5
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.299 vs xwOBA 0.294 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+5.6
One-Run Game Record
16-19 in one-run games (46% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-5.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.16 vs xERA 4.22 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+0.1
Total CLS+7
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|39 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Blue Jays are right where they belong. Their CLS of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 6th in the league - a tough run.