Blue Jays CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
-1
CLS Score
Blue Jays are getting what their run differential deserves. 9 wins vs 8.7 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
9
Wins
Expected: 8.7
88
Runs Scored
111
Runs Allowed
0.3
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against White Sox
Shut out on the road by White Sox. 0 runs conceded, 0 scored.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out on the road by White Sox. 0 runs conceded, 0 scored.
Score: 0-0
MW8 · 2026-04-03 · vs White Sox · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 in 10 innings to White Sox. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-5
MW15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Twins · Home-0.3 pts
Lost to Twins 4-7.
Score: 4-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW17 · 2026-04-14 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Outlasted Brewers 9-7 in 10 innings. Extra baseball went their way.
Score: 9-7
MW13 · 2026-04-08 · vs Dodgers · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Dodgers 4-3. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 4-3
MW2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Athletics · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Athletics 8-7 in 11 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 8-7
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
3-4 in one-run games (43% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-1.8
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
+1.5
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.314 vs xwOBA 0.311 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+1.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (15 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.80 vs xERA 3.79 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-1
Total CLS-1
Rank Per Signal
Where Blue Jays ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
7-1
Pitching Luck
1
30
7-1.2
Injury Burden
1
30
13-1.8
One-Run Game Record
1
30
21+1.5
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
22+1.5
Batting Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|139 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Blue Jays are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).