Blue Jays Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
-14
Luck Index Score
Blue Jays are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 1.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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3
Wins
Expected: 1.7
21
Runs Scored
Expected: 1.7
25
Runs Allowed
1.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.302 vs xwOBA 0.329 - hard contact not converting into hits
-27
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+19
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.86 vs xERA 3.99 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-13
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+6
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index-15
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Blue Jays are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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