Blue Jays

Blue Jays CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 165 games played · View MLB standings →

+12
CLS Score
12th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Blue Jays are getting what their run differential deserves. 79 wins vs 75.9 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

79
Wins
Expected: 75.9
648
Runs Scored
694
Runs Allowed
3.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against White Sox

Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm79 · 2026-06-21 · vs Cubs · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm160 · 2026-09-22 · vs Orioles · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm163 · 2026-09-25 · vs Reds · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Reds (10-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm145 · 2026-09-05 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Royals. 2 Royals errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 4-3
Gm139 · 2026-08-29 · vs Mariners · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Mariners (5-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their run differential predicts
+11.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.304 vs xwOBA 0.297 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+8.8
One-Run Game Record
20-24 in one-run games (45% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-6.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.34 vs xERA 4.40 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1
Total CLS+12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Blue Jays are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available