Blue Jays CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 92 games played · View MLB standings →
+4
CLS Score
15th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Blue Jays are getting what their run differential deserves. 42 wins vs 40.4 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
42
Wins
Expected: 40.4
356
Runs Scored
398
Runs Allowed
1.6
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against White Sox
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-02 · vs White Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm79 · 2026-06-21 · vs Cubs · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm8 · 2026-04-03 · vs White Sox · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 in 10 innings to White Sox. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 4-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm78 · 2026-06-20 · vs Cubs · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Cubs 8-6 (9-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Gm76 · 2026-06-18 · vs Red Sox · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Red Sox (10-5 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm59 · 2026-05-29 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Orioles (10-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+7.3
One-Run Game Record
11-15 in one-run games (42% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.305 vs xwOBA 0.301 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+5.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (11 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.05 vs xERA 4.05 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-1.1
Total CLS+4
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|70 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Blue Jays are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 24th in the league - a favorable stretch.