Royals CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 132 games played · View MLB standings →
-14
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Royals are getting what their run differential deserves. 57 wins vs 56 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
57
Wins
Expected: 56
549
Runs Scored
644
Runs Allowed
1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm20 · 2026-04-16 · vs Tigers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Tigers (13-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10
Gm17 · 2026-04-12 · vs White Sox · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to White Sox (6-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm129 · 2026-08-19 · vs Athletics · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Athletics 9-7 (11-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 9-7
Gm128 · 2026-08-18 · vs Athletics · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Athletics (9-5 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm124 · 2026-08-14 · vs Angels · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Angels (10-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
18-22 in one-run games (45% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-6.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.82 vs xERA 4.72 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-5.6
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+4.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.2
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.313 vs xwOBA 0.312 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2.1
Total CLS-14
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Royals are right where they belong. Their CLS of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 17th).