Royals CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 51 games played · View MLB standings →
-6
CLS Score
12th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Royals are getting what their run differential deserves. 20 wins vs 21.7 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
20
Wins
Expected: 21.7
194
Runs Scored
224
Runs Allowed
1.7
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm20 · 2026-04-16 · vs Tigers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Tigers (13-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10
Gm17 · 2026-04-12 · vs White Sox · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to White Sox (6-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm40 · 2026-05-08 · vs Tigers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Tigers (8-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm33 · 2026-05-01 · vs Mariners · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Mariners (10-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6
Gm29 · 2026-04-26 · vs Angels · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Angels 11-9 despite being outhit 16-12. Won on timely hitting, not volume.
Score: 11-9
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
4-9 in one-run games (31% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-7.5
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.20 vs xERA 4.63 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+5.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.312 vs xwOBA 0.316 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.3
Total CLS-6
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|111 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Royals are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).