Royals

Royals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 103 games played · View MLB standings →

-18
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Royals deserve more. 42 wins vs 41.7 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Injury Burden (-5.6 CLS impact). High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

42
Wins
Expected: 41.7
433
Runs Scored
530
Runs Allowed
0.3
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers

Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm20 · 2026-04-16 · vs Tigers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Tigers (13-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10
Gm17 · 2026-04-12 · vs White Sox · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to White Sox (6-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm102 · 2026-07-20 · vs Giants · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Giants (8-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm99 · 2026-07-17 · vs Padres · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Padres. 2 Padres errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 7-6
Gm93 · 2026-07-07 · vs Mets · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Mets 16-12 (19-13 H). Dominated with the bat (19 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 16-12

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.313 vs xwOBA 0.317 - hard contact not converting into hits
-5.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.92 vs xERA 4.84 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-5.1
One-Run Game Record
12-14 in one-run games (46% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-4.1
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
+2.2
Total CLS-18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|59 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Royals are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 0 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 23th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

Next Matches
07-22
H
Giants
Bet
07-23
A
Tigers
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07-24
A
Tigers
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07-25
A
Tigers
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07-26
A
Tigers
Bet