Royals

Royals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 163 games played · View MLB standings →

-24
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Royals deserve more. 69 wins vs 69.2 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (-7.7 CLS impact). 21-26 in one-run games (45% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

69
Wins
Expected: 69.2
690
Runs Scored
810
Runs Allowed
0.2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers

Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm20 · 2026-04-16 · vs Tigers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Tigers (13-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10
Gm17 · 2026-04-12 · vs White Sox · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to White Sox (6-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm159 · 2026-09-23 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against White Sox (12-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm129 · 2026-08-19 · vs Athletics · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Athletics 9-7 (11-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 9-7
Gm128 · 2026-08-18 · vs Athletics · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Athletics (9-5 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
21-26 in one-run games (45% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-7.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.83 vs xERA 4.71 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-6.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (16 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.2
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.316 vs xwOBA 0.315 - hard contact not converting into hits
-3.6
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
+0.3
Total CLS-24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -24, Royals are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 0 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available