Royals CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
-9
CLS Score
Royals are getting what their run differential deserves. 7 wins vs 7.8 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
7
Wins
Expected: 7.8
76
Runs Scored
110
Runs Allowed
0.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers
Shut out at home by Brewers. 0 runs conceded, 0 scored.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out at home by Brewers. 0 runs conceded, 0 scored.
Score: 0-0
MW20 · 2026-04-16 · vs Tigers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Tigers. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 9-10
MW17 · 2026-04-12 · vs White Sox · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to White Sox. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-6
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW5 · 2026-04-01 · vs Twins · Home+0.3 pts
Beat Twins 13-9.
Score: 13-9
MW11 · 2026-04-06 · vs Guardians · Away+0.2 pts
Beat Guardians 4-2.
Score: 4-2
MW9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Brewers · Home+0.1 pts
Blew out Brewers 8-2. A dominant performance.
Score: 8-2
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
0-5 in one-run games (0% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-8.6
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-3.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.79 vs xERA 4.94 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+3.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.292 vs xwOBA 0.305 - hard contact not converting into hits
-1.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.4
Total CLS-9
Rank Per Signal
Where Royals ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
1-8.6
One-Run Game Record
1
30
8-1.7
Batting Luck
1
30
10-3.8
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
23+1.4
Injury Burden
1
30
29+3.7
Pitching Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|138 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Royals are right where they belong. Their CLS of -9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 17th).