Royals

Royals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →

-32
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Royals deserve more. 35 wins vs 35.8 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Batting Luck (-9.6 CLS impact). wOBA 0.309 vs xwOBA 0.319 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

35
Wins
Expected: 35.8
364
Runs Scored
452
Runs Allowed
0.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers

Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm20 · 2026-04-16 · vs Tigers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Tigers (13-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10
Gm17 · 2026-04-12 · vs White Sox · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to White Sox (6-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm86 · 2026-06-28 · vs White Sox · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against White Sox (11-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm78 · 2026-06-19 · vs Cardinals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Cardinals (9-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm67 · 2026-06-07 · vs Twins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Twins (9-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.309 vs xwOBA 0.319 - hard contact not converting into hits
-9.6
One-Run Game Record
9-14 in one-run games (39% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-8.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.84 vs xERA 4.69 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-6.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.3
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-3.1
Total CLS-32

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|72 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -32, Royals are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 19th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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