Sacramento Kings

Sacramento Kings CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-40
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Kings have been systematically robbed. 22 wins from 26.3 expected — a 4.3-game gap between what their point differential says they deserve and what the standings show. 60 losses, a meaningful slice of them stolen in tight fourth quarters. The Pythagorean math is brutal on them: regression is almost certainly coming. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-11.7 CLS impact). 4 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

22
Wins
Expected: 26.3
9102
Points For
9922
Points Against
4.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2025-10-23 · vs Suns · away
120-116
Lost away against Suns

Lost to Phoenix Suns 116-120. Shot 55% eFG vs their 53%.

54.8%
Team eFG%
52.6%
Opp. eFG%
-0.6
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm1 · 2025-10-23 · vs Suns · Away-0.6 pts
Lost to Phoenix Suns 116-120. Shot 55% eFG vs their 53%.
Score: 116-120 | eFG%: 54.8-52.6
Gm37 · 2026-01-07 · vs Mavericks · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 98-100 to Dallas Mavericks shooting just 47% eFG (-5.3 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 98-100 | eFG%: 47.3-44.8
Gm43 · 2026-01-19 · vs Trail Blazers · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Portland Trail Blazers 110-117. Shot 55% eFG vs their 53%.
Score: 110-117 | eFG%: 55.2-53

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm6 · 2025-11-01 · vs Bucks · Away+0.9 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 135-133 despite being outshot 57% to 69% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 135-133 | eFG%: 57.5-68.9
Gm77 · 2026-04-02 · vs Raptors · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Toronto Raptors 123-115 despite being outshot 52% to 60% eFG. Toronto Raptors were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 123-115 | eFG%: 52.2-60.4
Gm61 · 2026-02-27 · vs Mavericks · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Dallas Mavericks 130-121 despite being outshot 54% to 62% eFG. Dallas Mavericks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 130-121 | eFG%: 54.5-61.7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-11.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (27 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-10.5
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 58 more threes than league-avg would predict (37.9% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-10.1
Close Game Record
67% win rate in 6 close games (+1.5 avg margin)
+7.5
Off 3P Luck
Made 47 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.0% vs league)
-6
Off 2P Luck
Made 88 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.2% vs league)
-4.1
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 104 more 2s than league-avg would predict (57.4% vs league)
-3.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.9% FT vs league average — 12 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-1.5
Total CLS-40

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Kings are deeply cursed at -40. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available