Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-16
CLS Score

Golden State Warriors can't seem to close games. 37 wins when their point differential predicts closer to 39.1. Not catastrophic, but the margins have consistently fallen the wrong way. Expect positive regression.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

37
Wins
Expected: 39.1
9398
Points For
9444
Points Against
2.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 51 · 2026-02-04 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · at home
94-113
Lost at home against Philadelphia 76ers

Lost 94-113 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

59.6%
Team eFG%
52.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW51 · 2026-02-04 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 94-113 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 94-113 | eFG%: 59.6-52.2
MW20 · 2025-11-27 · vs Houston Rockets · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 100-104 to Houston Rockets despite winning the efficiency battle 50% to 45% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 100-104 | eFG%: 50-44.9
MW67 · 2026-03-16 · vs New York Knicks · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 107-110 to New York Knicks in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 107-110 | eFG%: 57.3-52.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW72 · 2026-03-24 · vs Dallas Mavericks · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Dallas Mavericks 137-131 despite being outshot 59% to 68% eFG. Dallas Mavericks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 137-131 | eFG%: 58.9-67.8
MW68 · 2026-03-16 · vs Washington Wizards · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 125-117. Shot 55% eFG vs their 60%.
Score: 125-117 | eFG%: 55.5-59.6
MW31 · 2025-12-25 · vs Dallas Mavericks · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Dallas Mavericks 126-116 despite being outshot 52% to 57% eFG. Dallas Mavericks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 126-116 | eFG%: 51.5-57.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-14.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (195 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-1.2
Total CLS-16

Rank Per Signal

Where Golden State Warriors ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

10
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-14.8
13
Injury Burden
1
30
-1.2

Tank Watch

On the Fence (22/100)

Golden State Warriors are on the fence. Some decline but nothing conclusive.

First Half
22-19
0.5% win rate
Second Half
15-26
0.4% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
-0pp
Point differential decline
5.7pts/game
Late losing streaks
1 losing streak
Roster turnover (2H)
27%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Golden State Warriors are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available