Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-31
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Warriors can't seem to close games. 37 wins when their point differential predicts closer to 39.1. Not catastrophic, but the margins have consistently fallen the wrong way. Expect positive regression. Top driver: Injury Burden (-16.3 CLS impact). High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

37
Wins
Expected: 39.1
9398
Points For
9444
Points Against
2.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 51 · 2026-02-04 · vs 76ers · at home
113-94
Lost at home against 76ers

Lost 94-113 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

59.6%
Team eFG%
52.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm51 · 2026-02-04 · vs 76ers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 94-113 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 94-113 | eFG%: 59.6-52.2
Gm20 · 2025-11-27 · vs Rockets · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 100-104 to Houston Rockets despite winning the efficiency battle 50% to 45% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 100-104 | eFG%: 50-44.9
Gm67 · 2026-03-16 · vs Knicks · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 107-110 to New York Knicks in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 107-110 | eFG%: 57.3-52.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm72 · 2026-03-24 · vs Mavericks · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Dallas Mavericks 137-131 despite being outshot 59% to 68% eFG. Dallas Mavericks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 137-131 | eFG%: 58.9-67.8
Gm68 · 2026-03-16 · vs Wizards · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 125-117. Shot 55% eFG vs their 60%.
Score: 125-117 | eFG%: 55.5-59.6
Gm31 · 2025-12-25 · vs Mavericks · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Dallas Mavericks 126-116 despite being outshot 52% to 57% eFG. Dallas Mavericks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 126-116 | eFG%: 51.5-57.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-16.3
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-7.2
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 80.2% FT vs league average — 35 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-5.8
Off 2P Luck
Made 56 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (56.5% vs league)
+3.4
Off 3P Luck
Made 14 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-2.4
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 50 more 2s than league-avg would predict (56.2% vs league)
-2.3
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 2 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.0% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-0.4
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS-31

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -31, Warriors are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available