Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-9
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Warriors are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 37 wins vs 39.1 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

37
Wins
Expected: 39.1
9398
Points For
9444
Points Against
2.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 51 · 2026-02-04 · vs 76ers · at home
113-94
Lost at home against 76ers

Lost 94-113 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

59.6%
Team eFG%
52.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm51 · 2026-02-04 · vs 76ers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 94-113 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 94-113 | eFG%: 59.6-52.2
Gm20 · 2025-11-27 · vs Rockets · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 100-104 to Houston Rockets despite winning the efficiency battle 50% to 45% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 100-104 | eFG%: 50-44.9
Gm67 · 2026-03-16 · vs Knicks · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 107-110 to New York Knicks in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 107-110 | eFG%: 57.3-52.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm72 · 2026-03-24 · vs Mavericks · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Dallas Mavericks 137-131 despite being outshot 59% to 68% eFG. Dallas Mavericks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 137-131 | eFG%: 58.9-67.8
Gm68 · 2026-03-16 · vs Wizards · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 125-117. Shot 55% eFG vs their 60%.
Score: 125-117 | eFG%: 55.5-59.6
Gm31 · 2025-12-25 · vs Mavericks · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Dallas Mavericks 126-116 despite being outshot 52% to 57% eFG. Dallas Mavericks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 126-116 | eFG%: 51.5-57.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-5.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 80.2% FT vs league average — 35 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-4.5
Off 2P Luck
Made 56 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (56.5% vs league)
+2.6
Close Game Record
50% win rate in 10 close games (+0.4 avg margin)
+2.1
Off 3P Luck
Made 14 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-1.8
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 50 more 2s than league-avg would predict (56.2% vs league)
-1.8
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 2 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.0% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-0.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+0.3
Total CLS-9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Warriors are right where they belong. Their CLS of -9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available