Los Angeles Lakers

Los Angeles Lakers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+1
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Lakers are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 1 wins vs 1.1 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Wins
Expected: 1.1
225
Points For
227
Points Against
0.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 57 · 2026-02-25 · vs Magic · at home
110-109
Lost at home against Magic

Lost 109-110 to Orlando Magic in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.

53.6%
Team eFG%
49.5%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm57 · 2026-02-25 · vs Magic · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 109-110 to Orlando Magic in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 109-110 | eFG%: 53.6-49.5
Gm72 · 2026-03-23 · vs Pistons · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 110-113 to Detroit Pistons shooting just 53% eFG (-4.2 below season avg), including 8/29 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 110-113 | eFG%: 53.2-51.7
Gm1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Warriors · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 109-119 to Golden State Warriors as they shot 60% eFG and hit 17/40 from three, well above their 55% season average. Got shot out of the building.
Score: 109-119 | eFG%: 59.7-59.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm25 · 2025-12-15 · vs Suns · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Phoenix Suns 116-114 despite being outshot 47% to 57% eFG. Phoenix Suns were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-114 | eFG%: 47.2-56.7
Gm11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Hornets · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Charlotte Hornets 121-111 despite being outshot 58% to 64% eFG. Charlotte Hornets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 121-111 | eFG%: 57.8-64.1
Gm9 · 2025-11-06 · vs Spurs · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from San Antonio Spurs 118-116 despite being outshot 51% to 57% eFG. San Antonio Spurs were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-116 | eFG%: 50.6-57.4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Off 2P Luck
Made 189 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (59.5% vs league)
+1.1
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (7 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-0.8
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 23 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.2% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.5
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 104 more 2s than league-avg would predict (57.4% vs league)
-0.5
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.2% FT vs league average — 16 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-0.3
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Off 3P Luck
Made 1 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.9% vs league)
0
Total CLS+1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lakers are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available