Los Angeles Lakers

Los Angeles Lakers Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+93
Luck Index Score

Los Angeles Lakers have had fortune smiling on them. 7.9 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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50
Wins
Expected: 42.1
8974
Points For
Expected: 42.1
8855
Points Against
7.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 57 · 2026-02-25 · vs Orlando Magic · at home
109-110
Lost at home against Orlando Magic

One of those games where nothing went right. Los Angeles Lakers created 109 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 109 goals on an average day. They scored 109. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Los Angeles Lakers. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

109
xG Created
110
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW57 · 2026-02-25 · vs Orlando Magic · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 109-110 to Orlando Magic. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 109-110 | xG: 109-110
MW36 · 2026-01-10 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to Milwaukee Bucks 101-105.
Score: 101-105 | xG: 101-105
MW58 · 2026-02-27 · vs Phoenix Suns · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 110-113 to Phoenix Suns. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 110-113 | xG: 110-113

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW71 · 2026-03-21 · vs Orlando Magic · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Orlando Magic 105-104. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 105-104 | xG: 105-104
MW5 · 2025-10-30 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Minnesota Timberwolves 116-115. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 116-115 | xG: 116-115
MW67 · 2026-03-15 · vs Denver Nuggets · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Denver Nuggets 127-125. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 127-125 | xG: 127-125

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
8 more wins than their point differential predicts
+44
Win% Gap
Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports
+28
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 2.5% above expected from shot locations (57.1% eFG vs 54.6% xeFG)
+19
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+2
Total Luck Index+93

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +93, Los Angeles Lakers are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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