Los Angeles Lakers

Los Angeles Lakers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+32
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Lakers have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+19.2 CLS impact). 7 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

53
Wins
Expected: 46.3
9540
Points For
9395
Points Against
6.7
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 57 · 2026-02-25 · vs Magic · at home
110-109
Lost at home against Magic

Lost 109-110 to Orlando Magic in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.

53.6%
Team eFG%
49.5%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm57 · 2026-02-25 · vs Magic · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 109-110 to Orlando Magic in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 109-110 | eFG%: 53.6-49.5
Gm72 · 2026-03-23 · vs Pistons · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 110-113 to Detroit Pistons shooting just 53% eFG (-4.2 below season avg), including 8/29 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 110-113 | eFG%: 53.2-51.7
Gm1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Warriors · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 109-119 to Golden State Warriors as they shot 60% eFG and hit 17/40 from three, well above their 55% season average. Got shot out of the building.
Score: 109-119 | eFG%: 59.7-59.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm25 · 2025-12-15 · vs Suns · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Phoenix Suns 116-114 despite being outshot 47% to 57% eFG. Phoenix Suns were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-114 | eFG%: 47.2-56.7
Gm11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Hornets · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Charlotte Hornets 121-111 despite being outshot 58% to 64% eFG. Charlotte Hornets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 121-111 | eFG%: 57.8-64.1
Gm9 · 2025-11-06 · vs Spurs · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from San Antonio Spurs 118-116 despite being outshot 51% to 57% eFG. San Antonio Spurs were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-116 | eFG%: 50.6-57.4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+19.2
Off 2P Luck
Made 189 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (59.5% vs league)
+8.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+6.8
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 23 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.2% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+3.9
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 104 more 2s than league-avg would predict (57.4% vs league)
-3.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.2% FT vs league average — 16 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-2.1
Close Game Record
50% win rate in 8 close games (-0.3 avg margin)
-0.8
Off 3P Luck
Made 1 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.9% vs league)
-0.2
Total CLS+32

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lakers are riding their luck at +32. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available