San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 83 games played · View NBA standings →

+14
CLS Score
11th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Spurs are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 62 wins vs 55.6 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

62
Wins
Expected: 55.6
9826
Points For
9145
Points Against
6.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2025-11-06 · vs Lakers · away
118-116
Lost away against Lakers

Lost 116-118 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 57% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

57.4%
Team eFG%
50.6%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm7 · 2025-11-06 · vs Lakers · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 116-118 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 57% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 116-118 | eFG%: 57.4-50.6
Gm49 · 2026-01-31 · vs Hornets · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Charlotte Hornets 106-111. Shot 56% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 106-111 | eFG%: 55.6-51.7
Gm11 · 2025-11-13 · vs Warriors · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Golden State Warriors 120-125. Shot 56% eFG vs their 55%.
Score: 120-125 | eFG%: 56.4-54.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm35 · 2026-01-03 · vs Pacers · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Indiana Pacers 123-113 despite being outshot 52% to 58% eFG. Indiana Pacers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 123-113 | eFG%: 51.5-58.1
Gm39 · 2026-01-11 · vs Celtics · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Boston Celtics 100-95 as they shot 49% eFG (-5.9 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 100-95 | eFG%: 45.3-49.5
Gm18 · 2025-11-29 · vs Nuggets · Away+0.7 pts
Edged Denver Nuggets 139-136 in a 3-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 139-136 | eFG%: 58-61.5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Game Record
14% win rate in 7 close games (-1.7 avg margin)
-23.9
Pythagorean Delta
6 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+20.7
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 144 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (51.8% vs league)
+5.7
Off 2P Luck
Made 101 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (57.4% vs league)
+5.3
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 22 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.2% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+4.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+3.8
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.0% FT vs league average — 12 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-1.7
Off 3P Luck
Made 2 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.9% vs league)
-0.3
Total CLS+14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Spurs are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available