San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 83 games played · View NBA standings →

+32
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Spurs have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+18.2 CLS impact). 6 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

62
Wins
Expected: 55.6
9826
Points For
9145
Points Against
6.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2025-11-06 · vs Lakers · away
118-116
Lost away against Lakers

Lost 116-118 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 57% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

57.4%
Team eFG%
50.6%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm7 · 2025-11-06 · vs Lakers · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 116-118 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 57% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 116-118 | eFG%: 57.4-50.6
Gm49 · 2026-01-31 · vs Hornets · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Charlotte Hornets 106-111. Shot 56% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 106-111 | eFG%: 55.6-51.7
Gm11 · 2025-11-13 · vs Warriors · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Golden State Warriors 120-125. Shot 56% eFG vs their 55%.
Score: 120-125 | eFG%: 56.4-54.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm35 · 2026-01-03 · vs Pacers · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Indiana Pacers 123-113 despite being outshot 52% to 58% eFG. Indiana Pacers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 123-113 | eFG%: 51.5-58.1
Gm39 · 2026-01-11 · vs Celtics · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Boston Celtics 100-95 as they shot 49% eFG (-5.9 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 100-95 | eFG%: 45.3-49.5
Gm18 · 2025-11-29 · vs Nuggets · Away+0.7 pts
Edged Denver Nuggets 139-136 in a 3-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 139-136 | eFG%: 58-61.5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+18.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+5.3
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 144 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (51.8% vs league)
+5
Off 2P Luck
Made 101 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (57.4% vs league)
+4.7
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 22 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.2% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+3.9
Close Game Record
44% win rate in 9 close games (-0.6 avg margin)
-3.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.0% FT vs league average — 12 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-1.5
Off 3P Luck
Made 2 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.9% vs league)
-0.2
Total CLS+32

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Spurs are riding their luck at +32. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available