San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 83 games played · View NBA standings →

-3
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Spurs are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 0 wins vs 56.3 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Wins
Expected: 56.3
0
Points For
0
Points Against
56.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2025-11-06 · vs Lakers · away
118-116
Lost away against Lakers

Lost 116-118 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 57% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

57.4%
Team eFG%
50.6%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm7 · 2025-11-06 · vs Lakers · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 116-118 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 57% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 116-118 | eFG%: 57.4-50.6
Gm49 · 2026-01-31 · vs Hornets · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Charlotte Hornets 106-111. Shot 56% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 106-111 | eFG%: 55.6-51.7
Gm11 · 2025-11-13 · vs Warriors · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Golden State Warriors 120-125. Shot 56% eFG vs their 55%.
Score: 120-125 | eFG%: 56.4-54.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm35 · 2026-01-03 · vs Pacers · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Indiana Pacers 123-113 despite being outshot 52% to 58% eFG. Indiana Pacers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 123-113 | eFG%: 51.5-58.1
Gm39 · 2026-01-11 · vs Celtics · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Boston Celtics 100-95 as they shot 49% eFG (-5.9 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 100-95 | eFG%: 45.3-49.5
Gm18 · 2025-11-29 · vs Nuggets · Away+0.7 pts
Edged Denver Nuggets 139-136 in a 3-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 139-136 | eFG%: 58-61.5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
56 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-5.2
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 144 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (51.8% vs league)
+1.1
Off 2P Luck
Made 101 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (57.4% vs league)
+1
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 22 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.2% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-0.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.0% FT vs league average — 12 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-0.3
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Off 3P Luck
Made 2 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.9% vs league)
0
Total CLS-3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Spurs are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available