Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-2
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Mavericks are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 0 wins vs 30.9 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Wins
Expected: 30.9
0
Points For
0
Points Against
30.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Suns · at home
123-114
Lost at home against Suns

Lost 114-123 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

59.9%
Team eFG%
53.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Suns · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 114-123 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-123 | eFG%: 59.9-53.7
Gm29 · 2025-12-21 · vs 76ers · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 114-121 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-121 | eFG%: 56-49
Gm58 · 2026-02-27 · vs Kings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 121-130 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 62% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 121-130 | eFG%: 61.7-54.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm31 · 2025-12-24 · vs Nuggets · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Denver Nuggets 131-130 despite being outshot 63% to 69% eFG. Denver Nuggets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 131-130 | eFG%: 62.9-69
Gm37 · 2026-01-07 · vs Kings · Away+0.6 pts
Beat Sacramento Kings 100-98 as they shot 47% eFG (-5.3 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 100-98 | eFG%: 44.8-47.3
Gm56 · 2026-02-22 · vs Pacers · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Indiana Pacers 134-130 on hot shooting (60% eFG, +7.4 above season average).
Score: 134-130 | eFG%: 60.1-60.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
31 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-2
Off 3P Luck
Made 41 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.4% vs league)
-1.1
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 28 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.0% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+1
Off 2P Luck
Made 80 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.3% vs league)
-0.8
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.0% FT vs league average — 23 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+0.6
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 42 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.9% vs league)
-0.3
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS-2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Mavericks are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available