Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-38
CLS Score
📉 Tank Mode

Dallas Mavericks can't seem to close games. 26 wins when their point differential predicts closer to 30.9. Not catastrophic, but the margins have consistently fallen the wrong way. Expect positive regression.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

26
Wins
Expected: 30.9
9358
Points For
9810
Points Against
4.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Phoenix Suns · at home
114-123
Lost at home against Phoenix Suns

Lost 114-123 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

59.9%
Team eFG%
53.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Phoenix Suns · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 114-123 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-123 | eFG%: 59.9-53.7
MW29 · 2025-12-21 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 114-121 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-121 | eFG%: 56-49
MW58 · 2026-02-27 · vs Sacramento Kings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 121-130 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 62% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 121-130 | eFG%: 61.7-54.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2025-12-24 · vs Denver Nuggets · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Denver Nuggets 131-130 despite being outshot 63% to 69% eFG. Denver Nuggets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 131-130 | eFG%: 62.9-69
MW37 · 2026-01-07 · vs Sacramento Kings · Away+0.6 pts
Beat Sacramento Kings 100-98 as they shot 47% eFG (-5.3 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 100-98 | eFG%: 44.8-47.3
MW56 · 2026-02-22 · vs Indiana Pacers · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Indiana Pacers 134-130 on hot shooting (60% eFG, +7.4 above season average).
Score: 134-130 | eFG%: 60.1-60.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-34.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (219 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-3.1
Total CLS-38

Rank Per Signal

Where Dallas Mavericks ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

7
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-34.9
8
Injury Burden
1
30
-3.1

Tank Watch

Tank Mode (47/100)

Dallas Mavericks show some tank-like patterns. Second-half decline is notable.

First Half
15-26
0.4% win rate
Second Half
11-30
0.3% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
3.1pts/game
Late losing streaks
3 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
33%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -38, Dallas Mavericks are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available