Dallas Mavericks Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-25

Luck Index Score

Dallas Mavericks are getting roughly what they deserve. 24 points vs 25.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT

Wins

Expected: 25.8

8745

Points For

Expected: 25.8

9187

Points Against

1.8

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 62 · 2026-03-06 · vs Orlando Magic · away

114-115

Lost away against Orlando Magic

One of those games where nothing went right. Dallas Mavericks created 114 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 114 goals on an average day. They scored 114. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Dallas Mavericks. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

114

xG Created

115

Opp. xG

-0.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW62 · 2026-03-06 · vs Orlando Magic · Away-0.5 pts

Lost 114-115 to Orlando Magic. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 114-115 | xG: 114-115

MW8 · 2025-11-06 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Home-0.4 pts

Lost 99-101 to New Orleans Pelicans. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 99-101 | xG: 99-101

MW11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Home-0.4 pts

Lost 114-116 to Milwaukee Bucks. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 114-116 | xG: 114-116

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2025-12-24 · vs Denver Nuggets · Home+0.5 pts

Edged Denver Nuggets 131-130. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.

Score: 131-130 | xG: 131-130

MW56 · 2026-02-22 · vs Indiana Pacers · Away+0.4 pts

Beat Indiana Pacers 134-130.

Score: 134-130 | xG: 134-130

MW37 · 2026-01-07 · vs Sacramento Kings · Away+0.4 pts

Edged Sacramento Kings 100-98. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.

Score: 100-98 | xG: 100-98

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shot Quality Luck

Shooting 1.8% below expected from shot locations (52.8% eFG vs 54.6% xeFG)

-14

Pythagorean Delta

2 fewer wins than their point differential predicts

-9

Win% Gap

Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves

-5

Diff Consistency

Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots

Total Luck Index-25

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -25, Dallas Mavericks are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT