Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+1
CLS Score
15th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Mavericks are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 1 wins vs 0.8 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Wins
Expected: 0.8
249
Points For
250
Points Against
0.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Suns · at home
123-114
Lost at home against Suns

Lost 114-123 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

59.9%
Team eFG%
53.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Suns · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 114-123 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-123 | eFG%: 59.9-53.7
Gm29 · 2025-12-21 · vs 76ers · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 114-121 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-121 | eFG%: 56-49
Gm58 · 2026-02-27 · vs Kings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 121-130 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 62% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 121-130 | eFG%: 61.7-54.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm31 · 2025-12-24 · vs Nuggets · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Denver Nuggets 131-130 despite being outshot 63% to 69% eFG. Denver Nuggets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 131-130 | eFG%: 62.9-69
Gm37 · 2026-01-07 · vs Kings · Away+0.6 pts
Beat Sacramento Kings 100-98 as they shot 47% eFG (-5.3 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 100-98 | eFG%: 44.8-47.3
Gm56 · 2026-02-22 · vs Pacers · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Indiana Pacers 134-130 on hot shooting (60% eFG, +7.4 above season average).
Score: 134-130 | eFG%: 60.1-60.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Off 3P Luck
Made 41 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.4% vs league)
-1.4
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 28 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.0% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+1.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (4 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+1.2
Off 2P Luck
Made 80 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.3% vs league)
-1
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.0% FT vs league average — 23 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.8
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+0.5
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 42 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.9% vs league)
-0.4
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS+1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Mavericks are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available