Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-27
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Mavericks can't seem to close games. 26 wins when their point differential predicts closer to 30.9. Not catastrophic, but the margins have consistently fallen the wrong way. Expect positive regression. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-13.3 CLS impact). 5 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

26
Wins
Expected: 30.9
9358
Points For
9810
Points Against
4.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Suns · at home
123-114
Lost at home against Suns

Lost 114-123 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

59.9%
Team eFG%
53.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Suns · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 114-123 to Phoenix Suns despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-123 | eFG%: 59.9-53.7
Gm29 · 2025-12-21 · vs 76ers · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 114-121 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-121 | eFG%: 56-49
Gm58 · 2026-02-27 · vs Kings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 121-130 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 62% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 121-130 | eFG%: 61.7-54.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm31 · 2025-12-24 · vs Nuggets · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Denver Nuggets 131-130 despite being outshot 63% to 69% eFG. Denver Nuggets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 131-130 | eFG%: 62.9-69
Gm37 · 2026-01-07 · vs Kings · Away+0.6 pts
Beat Sacramento Kings 100-98 as they shot 47% eFG (-5.3 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 100-98 | eFG%: 44.8-47.3
Gm56 · 2026-02-22 · vs Pacers · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Indiana Pacers 134-130 on hot shooting (60% eFG, +7.4 above season average).
Score: 134-130 | eFG%: 60.1-60.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-13.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (24 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-8.2
Off 3P Luck
Made 41 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.4% vs league)
-5.2
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 28 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.0% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+4.7
Off 2P Luck
Made 80 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.3% vs league)
-3.7
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.0% FT vs league average — 23 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+2.9
Close Game Record
33% win rate in 3 close games (-0.7 avg margin)
-2.8
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 42 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.9% vs league)
-1.4
Total CLS-27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -27, Mavericks are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available