Season

Sassuolo CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+14

CLS Score

8th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Sassuolo are getting roughly what they deserve. 49 points vs 43.85 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 43.85

Goals Scored

xG: 41.55

Goals Conceded

xGA: 54.6

5.2

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Lecce · at home

2-3

Lost at home against Lecce

A defeat that defied the run of play. Sassuolo created 2.02 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Lecce generated just 0.86 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Sassuolo. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

14'W. Cheddira scores for Lecce

20'A. Lauriente scores for Sassuolo (assist: Pedro Felipe)

25'W. Cheddira scores for Lecce (assist: L. Banda)

82'A. Pinamonti scores for Sassuolo (assist: U. Garcia)

90'N. Stulic scores for Lecce (assist: O. Gandelman)

2.02

xG Created

0.86

Opp. xG

-2.1

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Lecce · Home-2.1 pts

Lost 2-3 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.02-0.86

MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Napoli · Away-1.6 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.91-0.58

MW32 · 2026-04-12 · vs Genoa · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.24-1.18

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cagliari · Home+2.4 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.51-1.63

MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Atalanta · Home+2.4 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.52-3.18

MW9 · 2025-10-30 · vs Cagliari · Away+1.9 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.56-0.72

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

High injury burden (188 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-10.1

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 more goals than their 41.5 xG - clinical finishing

+8.8

xPTS Gap

5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+7.4

Defensive Luck

Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 54.6 xGA opponents generated

+4.3

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+3.2

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+2.1

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1.7

Total CLS+14

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Sassuolo are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

05-24

Parma

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