Sassuolo Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+34

Luck Index Score

Sassuolo have had fortune smiling on them. The Luck Index says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 34.34

Goals Scored

xG: 32.21

Goals Conceded

xGA: 46.53

7.7

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Napoli · away

0-1

Lost away against Napoli

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Sassuolo. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

7'S. Lobotka scores for Napoli

0.91

xG Created

0.58

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Napoli · Away-1.6 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.91-0.58

MW10 · 2025-11-03 · vs Genoa · Home-1.0 pts

Lost 1-2 home. xG: 1.1-1.8.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.15-1.76

MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs AS Roma · Home-0.9 pts

Lost 0-1 home. xG: 1.1-1.7.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.06-1.74

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cagliari · Home+2.4 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.51-1.63

MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Atalanta · Home+2.4 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.52-3.18

MW9 · 2025-10-30 · vs Cagliari · Away+1.9 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.56-0.72

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 6 more goals than their 32.2 xG - clinical finishing

+14.2

xPTS Gap

8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+13.3

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+7.4

Injury Burden

High injury burden (141 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-6.8

Defensive Luck

Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 46.5 xGA opponents generated

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+4.5

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-3.6

Total Luck Index+34

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Sassuolo are riding their luck at +34. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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