Sassuolo

Sassuolo CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+24
CLS Score

Sassuolo have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

45
Points
Expected: 37.71
41
Goals Scored
xG: 34.83
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.3
7.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Napoli · away
0-1
Lost away against Napoli

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Sassuolo. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
7'S. Lobotka scores for Napoli
0.91
xG Created
0.58
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Napoli · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.91-0.58
MW32 · 2026-04-12 · vs Genoa · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.24-1.18
MW10 · 2025-11-03 · vs Genoa · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 1.1-1.8.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.15-1.76

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cagliari · Home+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.51-1.63
MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Atalanta · Home+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.52-3.18
MW9 · 2025-10-30 · vs Cagliari · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.56-0.72

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 34.8 xG - clinical finishing
+12.1
xPTS Gap
7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+11.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (155 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 48.3 xGA opponents generated
+3.3
Total CLS+24

Rank Per Signal

Where Sassuolo ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Discipline
1
20
-3.4
5
Injury Burden
1
20
-7.7
15
Defensive Luck
1
20
+3.3
15
Schedule Strength
1
20
+4.5
16
xPTS Gap
1
20
+11.2
17
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+4
19
Finishing Luck
1
20
+12.1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Inter
Inter
25W-3D-5L
+51Blessed
#1 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Sassuolo are riding their luck at +24. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

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