Sassuolo

Sassuolo CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-7
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Sassuolo are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 8.03 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 8.03
9
Goals Scored
xG: 8.66
9
Goals Conceded
xGA: 6.63
1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Atalanta · away
1-2
Lost away against Atalanta

A defeat that defied the run of play. Sassuolo created 2.7 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Atalanta generated just 0.88 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Sassuolo. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'G. Raspadori scores for Atalanta (assist: G. Gaetano)
55'C. Odenthal scores for Sassuolo
65'N. Krstovic scores for Atalanta
2.7
xG Created
0.88
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Atalanta · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.7 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.7-0.88
MW5 · 2026-09-18 · vs Monza · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.47-1.51
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Bologna · Away-0.2 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.6-1.9.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.62-1.88

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Juventus · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.02-1.1
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Torino · Home+1.2 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.85-1.26
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Bologna · Away+-0.2 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.6-1.9.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.62-1.88

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (50 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 6.6 xGA opponents generated
-1.9
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.7
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 8.7 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.2
Total CLS-7

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Inter
Inter
4W-1D-0L
+3Neutral
#2 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Sassuolo are right where they belong. Their CLS of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 7th).

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