SC Freiburg Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

-1

Luck Index Score

SC Freiburg are getting roughly what they deserve. 37 points vs 39.57 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 39.57

Goals Scored

xG: 43.04

Goals Conceded

xGA: 39.21

2.6

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 1 · 2025-08-23 · vs FC Augsburg · at home

1-3

Lost at home against FC Augsburg

A defeat that defied the run of play. SC Freiburg created 2.6 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for SC Freiburg. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

32'D. Giannoulis scores for FC Augsburg

42'C. Matsima scores for FC Augsburg (assist: M. Komur)

45'M. Wolf scores for FC Augsburg

58'V. Grifo scores for SC Freiburg

2.6

xG Created

1.34

Opp. xG

-2.1

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs FC Augsburg · Home-2.1 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.6-1.34

MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs Union Berlin · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.19-0.54

MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.6-1.1.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.55-1.11

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+2.1 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.46-0.97

MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC St. Pauli · Away+1.3 pts

Won 2-1 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.96-1.41

MW10 · 2025-11-09 · vs FC St. Pauli · Home+1.3 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.02-0.53

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (76 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+9.7

Defensive Luck

Conceded 8 more goals than the 39.2 xGA opponents generated

-6.4

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 fewer goals than their 43.0 xG - wasting chances

-6

xPTS Gap

3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-4.5

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+3.9

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+2.2

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+0.1

Total Luck Index-1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: declining|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

SC Freiburg are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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