SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+8
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

SC Freiburg are getting roughly what they deserve. 47 points vs 45.81 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

47
Points
Expected: 45.81
51
Goals Scored
xG: 48.74
57
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.75
1.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2025-08-23 · vs FC Augsburg · at home
1-3
Lost at home against FC Augsburg

A defeat that defied the run of play. SC Freiburg created 2.6 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for SC Freiburg. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'D. Giannoulis scores for FC Augsburg
42'C. Matsima scores for FC Augsburg (assist: M. Komur)
45'M. Wolf scores for FC Augsburg
58'V. Grifo scores for SC Freiburg
2.6
xG Created
1.34
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs FC Augsburg · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.6-1.34
MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs Union Berlin · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.19-0.54
MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.6-1.1.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.55-1.11

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.46-0.97
MW29 · 2026-04-12 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.56-0.55
MW30 · 2026-04-19 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.62-1.58

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 more goals than the 48.8 xGA opponents generated
-7.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (95 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.6
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 48.7 xG - clinical finishing
+0.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.7
Total CLS+8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

SC Freiburg are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available