SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+6
CLS Score

SC Freiburg are getting roughly what they deserve. 43 points vs 42.27 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

43
Points
Expected: 42.27
44
Goals Scored
xG: 45.22
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.34
0.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2025-08-23 · vs FC Augsburg · at home
1-3
Lost at home against FC Augsburg

A defeat that defied the run of play. SC Freiburg created 2.6 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for SC Freiburg. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'D. Giannoulis scores for FC Augsburg
42'C. Matsima scores for FC Augsburg (assist: M. Komur)
45'M. Wolf scores for FC Augsburg
58'V. Grifo scores for SC Freiburg
2.6
xG Created
1.34
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs FC Augsburg · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.6-1.34
MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs Union Berlin · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.19-0.54
MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.6-1.1.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.55-1.11

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.46-0.97
MW29 · 2026-04-12 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.56-0.55
MW30 · 2026-04-19 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.62-1.58

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (86 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 41.3 xGA opponents generated
-4.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 45.2 xG - wasting chances
-3.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.4
xPTS Gap
0.7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.1
Total CLS+6

Rank Per Signal

Where SC Freiburg ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Defensive Luck
1
18
-4.5
7
Finishing Luck
1
18
-3.6
8
Schedule Strength
1
18
+1.5
10
xPTS Gap
1
18
+1.1
12
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+1.4
16
Discipline
1
18
+2.8
17
Injury Burden
1
18
+7.3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

SC Freiburg are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

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