SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+15
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

SC Freiburg are getting roughly what they deserve. 10 points vs 8.78 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one. Top driver: Finishing Luck (+3.8 CLS impact). Scored 3 more goals than their 9.3 xG - clinical finishing

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

10
Points
Expected: 8.78
12
Goals Scored
xG: 9.3
3
Goals Conceded
xGA: 3.68
1.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · away
2-2
Drew away against Eintracht Frankfurt

A draw that felt like a loss. SC Freiburg created 3.09 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for SC Freiburg. They got 1. That's 0.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
10'Y. Ebnoutalib scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: R. Doan)
34'D. Scherhant scores for SC Freiburg (assist: J. Makengo)
36'J. Burkardt scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: R. Koch)
48'Y. Suzuki scores for SC Freiburg (assist: D. Scherhant)
3.09
xG Created
2.18
Opp. xG
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away-0.8 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 3.1-2.2.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.09-2.18
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+0.3 pts
Won 5-0 home. xG: 2.6-0.2.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 2.6-0.19
MW1 · 2026-08-30 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+0.5 pts
Won 4-1 home. xG: 2.4-0.5.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.37-0.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs SC Paderborn 07 · Away+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.24-0.77
MW1 · 2026-08-30 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+0.5 pts
Won 4-1 home. xG: 2.4-0.5.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.37-0.54
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+0.3 pts
Won 5-0 home. xG: 2.6-0.2.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 2.6-0.19

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 9.3 xG - clinical finishing
+3.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (8 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.6
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.3
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.7 fewer goals than the 3.7 xGA opponents generated
+0.9
Total CLS+15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

SC Freiburg are right where they belong. Their CLS of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

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