SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+19
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

SC Freiburg have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Finishing Luck (+5.3 CLS impact). Scored 4 more goals than their 10.4 xG - clinical finishing

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

13
Points
Expected: 10.83
14
Goals Scored
xG: 10.45
4
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4
2.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · away
2-2
Drew away against Eintracht Frankfurt

A draw that felt like a loss. SC Freiburg created 3.09 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for SC Freiburg. They got 1. That's 0.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
10'Y. Ebnoutalib scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: R. Doan)
34'D. Scherhant scores for SC Freiburg (assist: J. Makengo)
36'J. Burkardt scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: R. Koch)
48'Y. Suzuki scores for SC Freiburg (assist: D. Scherhant)
3.09
xG Created
2.18
Opp. xG
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away-0.8 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 3.1-2.2.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.09-2.18
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+0.3 pts
Won 5-0 home. xG: 2.6-0.2.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 2.6-0.19
MW1 · 2026-08-30 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+0.5 pts
Won 4-1 home. xG: 2.4-0.5.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.37-0.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs SC Paderborn 07 · Away+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.24-0.77
MW5 · 2026-10-11 · vs FC Schalke 04 · Home+0.9 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 1.1-0.3.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.15-0.32
MW1 · 2026-08-30 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+0.5 pts
Won 4-1 home. xG: 2.4-0.5.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.37-0.54

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 10.4 xG - clinical finishing
+5.3
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (12 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 4.0 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+0.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.5
Total CLS+19

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

SC Freiburg are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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