Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-18
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 21 in the Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 can't catch a break. 39 points when the data says they deserve closer to 44.77? 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-11.8 CLS impact). 6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

39
Points
Expected: 44.77
43
Goals Scored
xG: 45.12
55
Goals Conceded
xGA: 51.07
5.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Paris FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Stade Brestois 29 created 2.57 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Stade Brestois 29. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'W. Geubbels scores for Paris FC (assist: M. Lopez)
34'V. Marchetti scores for Paris FC (assist: W. Geubbels)
52'R. Del Castillo scores for Stade Brestois 29
84'Otávio (Paris FC) - Red Card
2.57
xG Created
1.55
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.57-1.55
MW33 · 2026-05-13 · vs Strasbourg · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 3.1 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.06-2.02
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Toulouse · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1-0.37

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Metz · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.87-1.52
MW23 · 2026-02-20 · vs Marseille · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-1.69
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Nice · Home+1.8 pts
Won 4-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.03-2.33

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-11.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (91 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 51.1 xGA opponents generated
-5.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 45.1 xG - wasting chances
-5.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.2
Total CLS-18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Stade Brestois 29 are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available