Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+4
CLS Score

Stade Brestois 29 are getting roughly what they deserve. 37 points vs 39.66 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

37
Points
Expected: 39.66
38
Goals Scored
xG: 39.28
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 42.26
2.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Paris FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Stade Brestois 29 created 2.57 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Stade Brestois 29. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'W. Geubbels scores for Paris FC (assist: M. Lopez)
34'V. Marchetti scores for Paris FC (assist: W. Geubbels)
52'R. Del Castillo scores for Stade Brestois 29
84'Otávio (Paris FC) - Red Card
2.57
xG Created
1.55
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.57-1.55
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Toulouse · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1-0.37
MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Nantes · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.51-0.15

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Metz · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.87-1.52
MW23 · 2026-02-20 · vs Marseille · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-1.69
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Nice · Home+1.8 pts
Won 4-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.03-2.33

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (75 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+11
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 42.3 xGA opponents generated
-3.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 39.3 xG - wasting chances
-0.1
Total CLS+4

Rank Per Signal

Where Stade Brestois 29 ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Defensive Luck
1
18
-3.7
7
xPTS Gap
1
18
-5.3
8
Finishing Luck
1
18
-0.1
9
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+0.5
9
Discipline
1
18
-0.7
12
Schedule Strength
1
18
+2.3
18
Injury Burden
1
18
+11

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Stade Brestois 29 are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 7th).

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