Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-14
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 are getting roughly what they deserve. 39 points vs 44.77 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

39
Points
Expected: 44.77
43
Goals Scored
xG: 45.12
55
Goals Conceded
xGA: 51.07
5.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Paris FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Stade Brestois 29 created 2.57 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Stade Brestois 29. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'W. Geubbels scores for Paris FC (assist: M. Lopez)
34'V. Marchetti scores for Paris FC (assist: W. Geubbels)
52'R. Del Castillo scores for Stade Brestois 29
84'Otávio (Paris FC) - Red Card
2.57
xG Created
1.55
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.57-1.55
MW33 · 2026-05-13 · vs Strasbourg · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 3.1 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.06-2.02
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Toulouse · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1-0.37

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Metz · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.87-1.52
MW23 · 2026-02-20 · vs Marseille · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-1.69
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Nice · Home+1.8 pts
Won 4-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.03-2.33

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-11.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (94 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 51.1 xGA opponents generated
-5.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 45.1 xG - wasting chances
-3.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.3
Total CLS-14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Stade Brestois 29 are right where they belong. Their CLS of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available