Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-4

Luck Index Score

Stade Brestois 29 are getting roughly what they deserve. 36 points vs 38.44 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT

36

Points

Expected: 38.44

34

Goals Scored

xG: 37.57

39

Goals Conceded

xGA: 37.94

2.4

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Paris FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Stade Brestois 29 created 2.57 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Stade Brestois 29. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

14'W. Geubbels scores for Paris FC (assist: M. Lopez)

34'V. Marchetti scores for Paris FC (assist: W. Geubbels)

52'R. Del Castillo scores for Stade Brestois 29

84'Otávio (Paris FC) - Red Card

2.57

xG Created

1.55

Opp. xG

-2.0

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · Home-2.0 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.57-1.55

MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Toulouse · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1-0.37

MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Nantes · Home-1.4 pts

Drew 0-0 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.51-0.15

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Metz · Away+2.1 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.87-1.52

MW23 · 2026-02-20 · vs Marseille · Home+1.9 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-1.69

MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Nice · Home+1.8 pts

Won 4-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.03-2.33

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (74 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+10

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 37.6 xG - wasting chances

-7

xPTS Gap

2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-5

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 more goals than the 37.9 xGA opponents generated

-2

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+1

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+1

Total Luck Index-3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Rennes

Nantes

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Stade Brestois 29 are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

04-04

H

Rennes

04-19

A

Nantes

04-24

H

Lens

05-03

A

Paris FC

05-09

A

Paris Saint Germain

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT