Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-11
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 are getting roughly what they deserve. 5 points vs 8.64 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

5
Points
Expected: 8.64
7
Goals Scored
xG: 9.71
8
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.95
3.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Le Mans · away
2-2
Drew away against Le Mans

A draw that felt like a loss. Stade Brestois 29 created 2.72 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Le Mans generated just 0.67 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Stade Brestois 29. They got 1. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
31'R. Del Castillo scores for Stade Brestois 29 (assist: K. Doumbia)
45'D. Gueye scores for Le Mans (assist: L. Mafouta)
55'L. Mafouta scores for Le Mans (assist: A. Bourabaa)
62'K. Doumbia scores for Stade Brestois 29
2.72
xG Created
0.67
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Le Mans · Away-1.5 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 2.7 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.72-0.67
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.24-1.16
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Toulouse · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.04-1.14

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Le Havre · Away+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.37-2.02
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Auxerre · Away+-0.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.3-1.0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.34-0.96
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Toulouse · Home+-1.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.04-1.14

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 9.7 xG - wasting chances
-4.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 6.0 xGA opponents generated
-3.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (25 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.6
Total CLS-11

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Rennes
Rennes
3W-1D-1L
+18Lucky
#5 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Stade Brestois 29 are right where they belong. Their CLS of -11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

Next Matches
10-10
H
Angers
Bet
10-17
A
Lille
Bet
10-23
H
Nice
Bet
10-31
A
Lorient
Bet
11-08
H
Lyon
Bet