Tigers

Tigers CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 92 games played · View MLB standings →

-53
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Tigers are cursed by baseball's most unforgiving luck signal: one-run games. 40 wins from 46.2 expected by Pythagorean run differential. They're outscoring opponents overall but losing the sequencing — tight games, bunched innings, BABIP variance. The regression is coming, and it usually comes fast. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-28.3 CLS impact). 6 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

40
Wins
Expected: 46.2
379
Runs Scored
368
Runs Allowed
6.2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Orioles · away
0-0
Lost away against Orioles

Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Orioles · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm73 · 2026-06-14 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm5 · 2026-03-31 · vs D-backs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-7 to D-backs (6-8 H). D-backs were the better team on the day.
Score: 5-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm62 · 2026-06-01 · vs Rays · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Rays (14-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm19 · 2026-04-16 · vs Royals · Home+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Royals (14-13 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm79 · 2026-06-21 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 in 10 innings against White Sox (13-6 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-28.3
One-Run Game Record
9-16 in one-run games (36% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-11.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.313 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits
-7.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.81 vs xERA 3.78 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-2.1
Total CLS-53

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|70 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Tigers are deeply cursed at -53. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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