Tigers

Tigers CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 164 games played · View MLB standings →

-58
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Tigers are cursed by baseball's most unforgiving luck signal: one-run games. 76 wins from 88.6 expected by Pythagorean run differential. They're outscoring opponents overall but losing the sequencing — tight games, bunched innings, BABIP variance. The regression is coming, and it usually comes fast. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-40.3 CLS impact). 13 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

76
Wins
Expected: 88.6
723
Runs Scored
652
Runs Allowed
12.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Orioles · away
0-0
Lost away against Orioles

Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Orioles · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm73 · 2026-06-14 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm111 · 2026-07-29 · vs Orioles · Home-0.5 pts
Fell 9-10 to Orioles in 12 innings (10-9 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 9-10

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm62 · 2026-06-01 · vs Rays · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Rays (14-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm19 · 2026-04-16 · vs Royals · Home+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Royals (14-13 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm163 · 2026-09-26 · vs Pirates · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Pirates (10-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
13 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-40.3
One-Run Game Record
17-27 in one-run games (39% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-16.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.82 vs xERA 3.97 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+4.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.321 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits
-3.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.5
Total CLS-58

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Tigers are deeply cursed at -58. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available