Tigers CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
-9
CLS Score
Tigers are getting what their run differential deserves. 12 wins vs 13.4 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
12
Wins
Expected: 13.4
100
Runs Scored
83
Runs Allowed
1.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-31 · vs D-backs · away
5-7
Lost away against D-backs
Lost to D-backs 5-7.
5
Runs
7
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW5 · 2026-03-31 · vs D-backs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to D-backs 5-7.
Score: 5-7
MW12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Twins · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Twins 6-8.
Score: 6-8
MW23 · 2026-04-20 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Red Sox 6-8.
Score: 6-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW19 · 2026-04-16 · vs Royals · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Royals 10-9. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 10-9
MW18 · 2026-04-15 · vs Royals · Home+0.2 pts
Edged Royals 2-1. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 2-1
MW17 · 2026-04-14 · vs Royals · Home+0.2 pts
Edged Royals 2-1. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 2-1
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-7.1
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.328 vs xwOBA 0.349 - hard contact not converting into hits
-3.3
One-Run Game Record
3-2 in one-run games (60% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+1.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (16 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.21 vs xERA 3.71 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.2
Total CLS-9
Rank Per Signal
Where Tigers ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
4-3.3
Batting Luck
1
30
5-7.1
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
6-1.6
Injury Burden
1
30
20+1.8
One-Run Game Record
1
30
24+1.2
Pitching Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|139 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Tigers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 9th in the league - a tough run.