Tigers

Tigers CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 51 games played · View MLB standings →

-34
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Tigers deserve more. 20 wins vs 22.9 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-9.9 CLS impact). 3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

20
Wins
Expected: 22.9
196
Runs Scored
219
Runs Allowed
2.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 5 · 2026-03-31 · vs D-backs · away
7-5
Lost away against D-backs

Lost 5-7 to D-backs (6-8 H). D-backs were the better team on the day.

5
Runs
7
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm5 · 2026-03-31 · vs D-backs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-7 to D-backs (6-8 H). D-backs were the better team on the day.
Score: 5-7
Gm12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Twins · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Twins (12-11 H). Twins were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8
Gm23 · 2026-04-20 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Red Sox (10-12 H). Red Sox were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm19 · 2026-04-16 · vs Royals · Home+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Royals (14-13 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm26 · 2026-04-23 · vs Brewers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Brewers (7-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm45 · 2026-05-15 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.3 pts
Won 3-2 against Blue Jays (7-5 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 3-2

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-9.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.312 vs xwOBA 0.328 - hard contact not converting into hits
-9.7
One-Run Game Record
5-11 in one-run games (31% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-7.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.92 vs xERA 3.74 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-4.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (15 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.1
Total CLS-34

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|111 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -34, Tigers are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 26th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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