Guardians

Guardians CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 166 games played · View MLB standings →

+34
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Guardians have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+10.1 CLS impact). 3 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

85
Wins
Expected: 82.2
678
Runs Scored
667
Runs Allowed
2.8
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Cubs

Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm74 · 2026-06-14 · vs Tigers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Tigers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm100 · 2026-07-17 · vs Pirates · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Pirates 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm164 · 2026-09-25 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Royals 12-9 despite being outhit 14-9. Won on timely hitting, not volume.
Score: 12-9
Gm156 · 2026-09-15 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against White Sox (8-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6
Gm146 · 2026-09-04 · vs Tigers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Tigers (6-9 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their run differential predicts
+10.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.72 vs xERA 3.99 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+9.2
One-Run Game Record
27-22 in one-run games (55% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+7.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+7.2
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.311 vs xwOBA 0.310 - batters outperforming their contact quality
-0.1
Total CLS+34

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Guardians are riding their luck at +34. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available