Guardians

Guardians CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 134 games played · View MLB standings →

+15
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Guardians are getting what their run differential deserves. 64 wins vs 63.4 expected — the baseball gods are neutral. Top driver: Injury Burden (+11.2 CLS impact). High injury burden (4 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

64
Wins
Expected: 63.4
520
Runs Scored
534
Runs Allowed
0.6
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Cubs

Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm74 · 2026-06-14 · vs Tigers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Tigers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm100 · 2026-07-17 · vs Pirates · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Pirates 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm134 · 2026-08-22 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Rockies (7-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm112 · 2026-07-28 · vs Reds · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Reds (9-11 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm91 · 2026-07-03 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against White Sox (6-6 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (4 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+11.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.69 vs xERA 3.98 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+9.2
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.305 vs xwOBA 0.310 - hard contact not converting into hits
-8.6
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+3
One-Run Game Record
19-19 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
+0.2
Total CLS+15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|28 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Guardians are right where they belong. Their CLS of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 27th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches
08-23
A
Rockies
Bet
08-24
A
Angels
Bet
08-25
A
Angels
Bet
08-26
A
Angels
Bet
08-28
H
Royals
Bet