Guardians CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
+10
CLS Score
Guardians are getting what their run differential deserves. 13 wins vs 11.2 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
13
Wins
Expected: 11.2
97
Runs Scored
104
Runs Allowed
1.8
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Cubs
Shut out at home by Cubs. 0 runs conceded, 0 scored.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out at home by Cubs. 0 runs conceded, 0 scored.
Score: 0-0
MW19 · 2026-04-14 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Cardinals. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-6
MW20 · 2026-04-15 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.3 pts
Lost to Cardinals 3-5.
Score: 3-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW11 · 2026-04-05 · vs Cubs · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Cubs 6-5. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 6-5
MW3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Mariners · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Mariners 6-5 in 10 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 6-5
MW1 · 2026-03-26 · vs Mariners · Away+0.3 pts
Beat Mariners 6-4.
Score: 6-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+8.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.315 vs xwOBA 0.332 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2.4
One-Run Game Record
3-2 in one-run games (60% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+1.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.21 vs xERA 4.26 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-0.7
Total CLS+10
Rank Per Signal
Where Guardians ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
5-2.4
Batting Luck
1
30
10-0.7
Pitching Luck
1
30
19+1.7
One-Run Game Record
1
30
24+8.4
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
29+3
Injury Burden
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|137 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Guardians are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 24th in the league - a favorable stretch.