Guardians

Guardians CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 92 games played · View MLB standings →

+29
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Guardians have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+12.4 CLS impact). 3 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

47
Wins
Expected: 44.1
356
Runs Scored
364
Runs Allowed
2.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Cubs

Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm74 · 2026-06-14 · vs Tigers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Tigers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm19 · 2026-04-14 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 5-6 to Cardinals in 10 innings (9-8 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm91 · 2026-07-03 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against White Sox (6-6 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3
Gm90 · 2026-07-02 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against White Sox (9-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm86 · 2026-06-28 · vs Mariners · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Mariners. Mariners left 14 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their run differential predicts
+12.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (2 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+9.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.82 vs xERA 4.14 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+6.6
One-Run Game Record
16-14 in one-run games (53% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+2.8
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.300 vs xwOBA 0.303 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2.3
Total CLS+29

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|70 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Guardians are riding their luck at +29. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
07-05
H
White Sox
Bet
07-07
A
Twins
Bet
07-08
A
Twins
Bet
07-09
A
Twins
Bet
07-10
A
Marlins
Bet