Guardians CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 52 games played · View MLB standings →
+8
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Guardians are getting what their run differential deserves. 29 wins vs 27.8 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
29
Wins
Expected: 27.8
225
Runs Scored
204
Runs Allowed
1.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Cubs
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm9 · 2026-04-04 · vs Cubs · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm19 · 2026-04-14 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 5-6 to Cardinals in 10 innings (9-8 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 5-6
Gm43 · 2026-05-10 · vs Twins · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Twins. Left 12 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 4-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm51 · 2026-05-19 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Tigers. Tigers left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Gm28 · 2026-04-24 · vs Blue Jays · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Blue Jays 8-6 (10-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Gm11 · 2026-04-05 · vs Cubs · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Cubs (9-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+6.9
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+4.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.314 vs xwOBA 0.320 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2.1
One-Run Game Record
6-7 in one-run games (46% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-1.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.87 vs xERA 3.97 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+0.2
Total CLS+8
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|110 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Guardians are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 17th).