Torino

Torino CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-3
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Torino are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 4.75 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 4.75
5
Goals Scored
xG: 5.13
8
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.44
0.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Sassuolo · away
1-2
Lost away against Sassuolo

One of those games where nothing went right. Torino generated 1.26 xG, comfortably more than the 1.85 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Torino. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'C. Volpato scores for Sassuolo (assist: V. Adzic)
45'P. Comuzzo scores for Torino (assist: A. Cacciamani)
78'D. Berardi scores for Sassuolo (assist: F. Leysen)
1.26
xG Created
1.85
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Sassuolo · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.26-1.85
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs AC Milan · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 1.3-2.1.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.29-2.15
MW4 · 2026-09-14 · vs AS Roma · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home. xG: 0.9-1.9.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.86-1.85

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Fiorentina · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.58-1.67
MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Bologna · Away+-0.5 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.1-0.9.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.14-0.92
MW4 · 2026-09-14 · vs AS Roma · Home+-0.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home. xG: 0.9-1.9.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.86-1.85

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
0.8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (27 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 5.1 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+0.2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 8.4 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+0.2
Total CLS-3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Juventus
Juventus
3W-1D-1L
-6Neutral
#6 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Torino are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).

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