Season

Torino CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-26

CLS Score

4th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Torino can't catch a break. 44 points when the data says they deserve closer to 46.15? 17 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Defensive Luck (-11.5 CLS impact). Conceded 9 more goals than the 52.0 xGA opponents generated

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 46.15

Goals Scored

xG: 44.96

Goals Conceded

xGA: 52.05

2.1

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 17 · 2025-12-27 · vs Cagliari · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Cagliari

One of those games where nothing went right. Torino generated 1.6 xG, comfortably more than the 0.77 their opponent managed. Cagliari generated just 0.77 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Torino. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

28'N. Vlasic scores for Torino (assist: C. Adams)

45'M. Prati scores for Cagliari (assist: L. Mazzitelli)

66'S. Kilicsoy scores for Cagliari (assist: A. Deiola)

1.6

xG Created

0.77

Opp. xG

-2.0

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW17 · 2025-12-27 · vs Cagliari · Home-2.0 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.6-0.77

MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Lecce · Away-1.9 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.74-1

MW30 · 2026-03-21 · vs AC Milan · Away-1.8 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.25-1.49

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-09-14 · vs AS Roma · Away+2.1 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.65-1.14

MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Genoa · Home+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.35-1.9

MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Lazio · Home+1.9 pts

Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.71-1.05

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck

Conceded 9 more goals than the 52.0 xGA opponents generated

-11.5

Injury Burden

High injury burden (176 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-7.2

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-3.2

xPTS Gap

2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-2.9

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 fewer goals than their 45.0 xG - wasting chances

-1.9

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-1.3

Total CLS-26

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -26, Torino are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

05-24