Torino Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-31

Luck Index Score

Torino can't catch a break. 36 points when the data says they deserve closer to 38.67? 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 38.67

Goals Scored

xG: 35.97

Goals Conceded

xGA: 42.77

2.7

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 30 · 2026-03-21 · vs AC Milan · away

2-3

Lost away against AC Milan

One of those games where nothing went right. Torino created 2.25 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Torino. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

28'N. Vlasic scores for Torino (assist: C. Adams)

45'M. Prati scores for Cagliari (assist: L. Mazzitelli)

66'S. Kilicsoy scores for Cagliari (assist: A. Deiola)

2.25

xG Created

1.49

Opp. xG

-1.8

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW17 · 2025-12-27 · vs Cagliari · Home-2.0 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.6-0.77

MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Lecce · Away-1.9 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.74-1

MW30 · 2026-03-21 · vs AC Milan · Away-1.8 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.25-1.49

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-09-14 · vs AS Roma · Away+2.1 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.65-1.14

MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Genoa · Home+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.35-1.9

MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Lazio · Home+1.9 pts

Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.71-1.05

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck

Conceded 10 more goals than the 42.8 xGA opponents generated

-13

Injury Burden

High injury burden (154 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-10.4

xPTS Gap

3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-4.5

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-3.8

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+2.7

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2.3

Finishing Luck

Scored 1.0 more goals than their 36.0 xG - clinical finishing

+0.3

Total Luck Index-31

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -31, Torino are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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