Torino

Torino CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-16
CLS Score

Torino can't catch a break. 40 points when the data says they deserve closer to 40.65? 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

40
Points
Expected: 40.65
37
Goals Scored
xG: 37.42
54
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.89
0.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 17 · 2025-12-27 · vs Cagliari · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Cagliari

One of those games where nothing went right. Torino generated 1.6 xG, comfortably more than the 0.77 their opponent managed. Cagliari generated just 0.77 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Torino. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
28'N. Vlasic scores for Torino (assist: C. Adams)
45'M. Prati scores for Cagliari (assist: L. Mazzitelli)
66'S. Kilicsoy scores for Cagliari (assist: A. Deiola)
1.6
xG Created
0.77
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW17 · 2025-12-27 · vs Cagliari · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.6-0.77
MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Lecce · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.74-1
MW30 · 2026-03-21 · vs AC Milan · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.25-1.49

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-09-14 · vs AS Roma · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.65-1.14
MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Genoa · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.35-1.9
MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Lazio · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.71-1.05

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 9 more goals than the 44.9 xGA opponents generated
-10.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (160 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-8.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.3
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 37.4 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1.2
xPTS Gap
0.6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.8
Total CLS-16

Rank Per Signal

Where Torino ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Defensive Luck
1
20
-10.7
3
Discipline
1
20
-3.3
3
Injury Burden
1
20
-8.9
9
xPTS Gap
1
20
-1
9
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-0.8
12
Finishing Luck
1
20
+1.2
18
Schedule Strength
1
20
+7.5

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Torino are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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