Toulouse

Toulouse CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-5
CLS Score

Toulouse are getting roughly what they deserve. 37 points vs 40.46 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

37
Points
Expected: 40.46
41
Goals Scored
xG: 39.04
42
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.73
3.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Angers · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Angers

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Toulouse generated 1.98 xG, comfortably more than the 0.43 their opponent managed. Angers created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Toulouse. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
16'Y. Belkhdim scores for Angers
1.98
xG Created
0.43
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Angers · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.98-0.43
MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Auxerre · Away-2.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.33-0.75
MW22 · 2026-02-15 · vs Le Havre · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.36-1.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.37-1
MW1 · 2025-08-16 · vs Nice · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.61-0.79
MW18 · 2026-01-17 · vs Nice · Home+1.7 pts
Won 5-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 5-1 | xG: 1.84-1.99

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 39.0 xG - clinical finishing
+8.3
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 40.7 xGA opponents generated
-2.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (145 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.8
Total CLS-5

Rank Per Signal

Where Toulouse ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Discipline
1
18
-2.1
6
xPTS Gap
1
18
-6.1
6
Defensive Luck
1
18
-2.8
6
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-2.6
8
Injury Burden
1
18
-1.8
11
Schedule Strength
1
18
+2.1
16
Finishing Luck
1
18
+8.3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Marseille
Marseille
16W-4D-10L
+16Lucky
#6 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Toulouse are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

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