Season

Toulouse CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-12

CLS Score

4th unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Toulouse are getting roughly what they deserve. 5 points vs 8.45 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 8.45

Goals Scored

xG: 10.95

Goals Conceded

xGA: 8.22

3.4

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Lyon · at home

0-2

Lost at home against Lyon

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Toulouse created 2.77 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Lyon generated just 0.7 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Toulouse. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

68'N. Nartey scores for Lyon (assist: P. Sulc)

85'M. Fofana scores for Lyon (assist: C. Tolisso)

2.77

xG Created

0.7

Opp. xG

-2.5

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Lyon · Home-2.5 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.77-0.7

MW3 · 2026-09-03 · vs Lille · Home-2.4 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 3.5 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 3.46-1.21

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Lorient · Away-0.9 pts

Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.6-0.9.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.63-0.93

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Le Havre · Home+1.8 pts

Won 3-2 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.95-2.34

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away+0.5 pts

Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.1-3.0.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.14-3.04

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Lorient · Away+-0.9 pts

Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.6-0.9.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.63-0.93

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-6.3

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 10.9 xG - wasting chances

-6.3

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+2.3

Defensive Luck

Conceded 0.8 more goals than the 8.2 xGA opponents generated

-1.8

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (20 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+1.8

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-1.1

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.6

Total CLS-12

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: declining|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Toulouse are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

Next Matches

10-10

Monaco

Bet

10-16

Le Mans

Bet

10-24

Estac Troyes

Bet

11-01