Season

Toulouse CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 33 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-5

CLS Score

10th unluckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Toulouse are getting roughly what they deserve. 44 points vs 45.74 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 45.74

Goals Scored

xG: 43.28

Goals Conceded

xGA: 43.42

1.7

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Angers · at home

0-1

Lost at home against Angers

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Toulouse generated 1.98 xG, comfortably more than the 0.43 their opponent managed. Angers created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Toulouse. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

16'Y. Belkhdim scores for Angers

1.98

xG Created

0.43

Opp. xG

-2.4

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Angers · Home-2.4 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.98-0.43

MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Auxerre · Away-2.3 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.33-0.75

MW22 · 2026-02-15 · vs Le Havre · Away-2.1 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.36-1.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away+2.2 pts

Won 2-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.37-1

MW33 · 2026-05-10 · vs Lyon · Home+1.9 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.13-1.54

MW1 · 2025-08-16 · vs Nice · Away+1.9 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.61-0.79

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 more goals than their 43.3 xG - clinical finishing

+13.7

Defensive Luck

Conceded 3 more goals than the 43.4 xGA opponents generated

-4.5

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-4.4

xPTS Gap

2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-3.9

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-2.4

Injury Burden

High injury burden (159 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-2.3

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-1.2

Total CLS-5

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Toulouse are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available