Toulouse

Toulouse Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-3
Luck Index Score

Toulouse are getting roughly what they deserve. 37 points vs 39.82 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

37
Points
Expected: 39.82
39
Goals Scored
xG: 37.72
35
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.51
2.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Angers · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Angers

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Toulouse generated 1.98 xG, comfortably more than the 0.43 their opponent managed. Angers created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Toulouse. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
16'Y. Belkhdim scores for Angers
1.98
xG Created
0.43
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Angers · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.98-0.43
MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Auxerre · Away-2.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.33-0.75
MW22 · 2026-02-15 · vs Le Havre · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.36-1.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.37-1
MW1 · 2025-08-16 · vs Nice · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.61-0.79
MW18 · 2026-01-17 · vs Nice · Home+1.7 pts
Won 5-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 5-1 | xG: 1.84-1.99

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 37.7 xG - clinical finishing
+6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0 more goals than the 34.5 xGA opponents generated
-2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (138 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1
Total Luck Index-3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Marseille
Marseille
15W-4D-8L
+36Lucky
#3 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Toulouse are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

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