Udinese Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+17

Luck Index Score

Udinese have had fortune smiling on them. The Luck Index says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 37.12

Goals Scored

xG: 32.55

Goals Conceded

xGA: 42.49

2.9

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 6 · 2025-10-05 · vs Cagliari · at home

1-1

Drew at home against Cagliari

A draw that felt like a loss. Udinese created 2.68 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Cagliari generated just 0.97 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Udinese. They got 1. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

8'A. Lauriente scores for Sassuolo (assist: D. Berardi)

12'I. Kone scores for Sassuolo (assist: A. Lauriente)

56'K. Davis scores for Udinese

81'E. Iannoni scores for Sassuolo (assist: A. Fadera)

2.68

xG Created

0.97

Opp. xG

-1.3

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs Sassuolo · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 1-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.32-1.24

MW6 · 2025-10-05 · vs Cagliari · Home-1.3 pts

Drew 1-1 home despite 2.7 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.68-0.97

MW14 · 2025-12-08 · vs Genoa · Home-1.1 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.17-1.57

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-31 · vs Inter · Away+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.21-1.97

MW23 · 2026-02-02 · vs AS Roma · Home+1.9 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.54-0.74

MW30 · 2026-03-20 · vs Genoa · Away+1.8 pts

Won 2-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.03-1.19

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (84 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+8.8

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 more goals than their 32.5 xG - clinical finishing

+7.4

xPTS Gap

3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-3.2

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1

Defensive Luck

Conceding almost exactly at the 42.5 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way

-0.7

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+0.7

Total Luck Index+17

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Udinese are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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