Udinese CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+20

CLS Score

Udinese have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Points

Expected: 39.32

Goals Scored

xG: 34.85

Goals Conceded

xGA: 45.57

3.7

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 5 · 2025-09-28 · vs Sassuolo · away

1-3

Lost away against Sassuolo

One of those games where nothing went right. Udinese generated 1.32 xG, comfortably more than the 1.24 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Udinese. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

8'A. Lauriente scores for Sassuolo (assist: D. Berardi)

12'I. Kone scores for Sassuolo (assist: A. Lauriente)

56'K. Davis scores for Udinese

81'E. Iannoni scores for Sassuolo (assist: A. Fadera)

1.32

xG Created

1.24

Opp. xG

-1.4

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs Sassuolo · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 1-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.32-1.24

MW6 · 2025-10-05 · vs Cagliari · Home-1.3 pts

Drew 1-1 home despite 2.7 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.68-0.97

MW33 · 2026-04-18 · vs Parma · Home-1.3 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.13-1.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-31 · vs Inter · Away+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.21-1.97

MW32 · 2026-04-11 · vs AC Milan · Away+2.0 pts

Won 3-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.19-1.78

MW23 · 2026-02-02 · vs AS Roma · Home+1.9 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.54-0.74

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 more goals than their 34.9 xG - clinical finishing

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (94 player-games missed) - squad depth available

xPTS Gap

4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+5.5

Defensive Luck

Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 45.6 xGA opponents generated

+1.5

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1.2

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+0.8

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-0.6

Total CLS+20

Rank Per Signal

Where Udinese ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

Discipline

-1.2

Schedule Strength

-0.6

Shot Volume Gap

+0.8

Defensive Luck

+1.5

xPTS Gap

+5.5

Finishing Luck

Injury Burden

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Udinese are riding their luck at +20. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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