Udinese

Udinese CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-12
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Udinese are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 5.78 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 5.78
8
Goals Scored
xG: 7.02
11
Goals Conceded
xGA: 9.2
1.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Cagliari · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Cagliari

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Udinese created 2.13 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Udinese. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
54'D. Maldini scores for Cagliari
2.13
xG Created
1.12
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Cagliari · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.13-1.12
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Como · Home-0.8 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 2.1-1.5.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.14-1.5
MW3 · 2026-09-07 · vs Lazio · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 0.8-1.8.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.85-1.83

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Monza · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.98-1.7
MW4 · 2026-09-14 · vs Inter · Away+-0.4 pts
Lost 3-5 away. xG: 0.9-3.0.
Score: 3-5 | xG: 0.92-3.05
MW3 · 2026-09-07 · vs Lazio · Home+-0.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 0.8-1.8.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.85-1.83

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 1.0 more goals than their 7.0 xG - clinical finishing
+2.8
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (33 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 9.2 xGA opponents generated
-1.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.2
Total CLS-12

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Inter
Inter
4W-1D-0L
+3Neutral
#2 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Udinese are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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