Udinese

Udinese CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-17
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Udinese can't catch a break. 4 points when the data says they deserve closer to 6.42? 3 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-7.0 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 6.42
8
Goals Scored
xG: 6.1
11
Goals Conceded
xGA: 6.15
2.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Cagliari · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Cagliari

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Udinese created 2.13 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Udinese. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
54'D. Maldini scores for Cagliari
2.13
xG Created
1.12
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Cagliari · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.13-1.12
MW4 · 2026-09-14 · vs Inter · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 3-5 away despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-5 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Como · Home-0.8 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 2.1-1.5.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.14-1.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Monza · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.98-1.7
MW3 · 2026-09-07 · vs Lazio · Home+-0.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 0.8-1.8.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.85-1.83
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Como · Home+-0.8 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 2.1-1.5.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.14-1.5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 6.2 xGA opponents generated
-2.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (45 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 6.1 xG - clinical finishing
0
Total CLS-17

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Inter
Inter
5W-1D-0L
+23Lucky
#1 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -17, Udinese are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
10-12
A
Torino
Bet
10-18
H
Lecce
Bet
10-25
H
AC Milan
Bet
10-28
A
Parma
Bet
10-31
H
AS Roma
Bet