Union Berlin

Union Berlin Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

-15
Luck Index Score

Union Berlin are getting roughly what they deserve. 32 points vs 36.97 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

32
Points
Expected: 36.97
32
Goals Scored
xG: 35.44
47
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.72
5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 16 · 2026-01-10 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · at home
2-2
Drew at home against FSV Mainz 05

A draw that felt like a loss. Union Berlin created 3.35 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. FSV Mainz 05 generated just 1.01 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Union Berlin. They got 1. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
10'P. Wimmer scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: M. Amoura)
30'M. Amoura scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: S. Kumbedi)
59'L. Majer scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: C. Eriksen)
68'S. Nsoki scores for Union Berlin
3.35
xG Created
1.01
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.92-0.81
MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.84-1.37
MW12 · 2025-11-29 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.97-0.59

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.34-1.73
MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs SC Freiburg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.54-1.19
MW23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.55-0.94

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-8.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 35.4 xG - wasting chances
-7.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 41.7 xGA opponents generated
-3.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (104 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total Luck Index-15

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
16W-5D-7L
+3Neutral
#3 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Union Berlin are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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