Union Berlin

Union Berlin CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-16
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

Union Berlin can't catch a break. 39 points when the data says they deserve closer to 45.99? 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-9.6 CLS impact). 7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

39
Points
Expected: 45.99
44
Goals Scored
xG: 45.92
58
Goals Conceded
xGA: 52.18
7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 30 · 2026-04-18 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · at home
1-2
Lost at home against VfL Wolfsburg

A defeat that defied the run of play. Union Berlin generated 1.79 xG, comfortably more than the 0.19 their opponent managed. VfL Wolfsburg created almost nothing - just 0.19 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Union Berlin. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
11'P. Wimmer scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: J. Maehle)
46'D. Pejcinovic scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: C. Eriksen)
85'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)
1.79
xG Created
0.19
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-04-18 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.79-0.19
MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.92-0.81
MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.84-1.37

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.34-1.73
MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs SC Freiburg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.54-1.19
MW23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.55-0.94

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 52.2 xGA opponents generated
-4.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 45.9 xG - wasting chances
-3.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (143 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.3
Total CLS-16

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
20W-5D-9L
+3Neutral
#3 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Union Berlin are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available