Union Berlin

Union Berlin CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-14
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Union Berlin are getting roughly what they deserve. 1 points vs 2.95 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Points
Expected: 2.95
4
Goals Scored
xG: 4.52
17
Goals Conceded
xGA: 10.81
1.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-11 · vs FC Schalke 04 · at home
1-3
Lost at home against FC Schalke 04

One of those games where nothing went right. Union Berlin generated 1.95 xG, comfortably more than the 2.52 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.1 points for Union Berlin. They got 0. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
25'R. Gosens scores for FC Schalke 04
46'A. Aouchiche scores for FC Schalke 04 (assist: J. Adamu)
90'T. Skarke scores for Union Berlin (assist: T. Rothe)
90'M. Wober scores for FC Schalke 04 (assist: Hwang Hee-Chan)
1.95
xG Created
2.52
Opp. xG
-1.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-11 · vs FC Schalke 04 · Home-1.1 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.95-2.52
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Home-0.6 pts
Drew 3-3 home. xG: 1.8-1.5.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 1.84-1.47
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Away-0.1 pts
Lost 0-4 away. xG: 0.4-3.1.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.39-3.11

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-18 · vs Bayern München · Away+-0.1 pts
Lost 0-7 away. xG: 0.3-3.7.
Score: 0-7 | xG: 0.34-3.71
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Away+-0.1 pts
Lost 0-4 away. xG: 0.4-3.1.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.39-3.11
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Home+-0.6 pts
Drew 3-3 home. xG: 1.8-1.5.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 1.84-1.47

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 10.8 xGA opponents generated
-4.1
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.5 fewer goals than their 4.5 xG - wasting chances
-1.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (35 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.4
Total CLS-14

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
2W-0D-2L
-2Neutral
#9 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Union Berlin are right where they belong. Their CLS of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 6th).

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