RB Leipzig Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

Luck Index Score

RB Leipzig are getting roughly what they deserve. 53 points vs 46.19 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 46.19

Goals Scored

xG: 54.51

Goals Conceded

xGA: 41.13

6.8

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 22 · 2026-02-15 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · at home

2-2

Drew at home against VfL Wolfsburg

A draw that felt like a loss. RB Leipzig created 2.94 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. VfL Wolfsburg generated just 0.62 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for RB Leipzig. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

52'M. Amoura scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: A. Daghim)

70'Y. Diomande scores for RB Leipzig (assist: B. Gruda)

78'M. Svanberg scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: J. Belocian)

89'B. Gruda scores for RB Leipzig

2.94

xG Created

0.62

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-15 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Home-1.6 pts

Drew 2-2 home despite 2.9 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.94-0.62

MW10 · 2025-11-08 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 1-3 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.81-1.82

MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away-1.2 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-1.45

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 home from 2.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.26-3.24

MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs Hamburger SV · Home+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.06-1.53

MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+1.9 pts

Won 1-0 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 2.41-3.05

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-16.4

xPTS Gap

7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+10.6

Defensive Luck

Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 41.1 xGA opponents generated

+6.8

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Injury Burden

High injury burden (132 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-2.5

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+2.4

Finishing Luck

Scoring almost exactly at their 54.5 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful

-1.9

Total Luck Index+3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

RB Leipzig are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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