RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-2
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

RB Leipzig are getting roughly what they deserve. 6 points vs 7.08 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 7.08
9
Goals Scored
xG: 8.86
5
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.41
1.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Werder Bremen · away
1-3
Lost away against Werder Bremen

One of those games where nothing went right. RB Leipzig generated 1.5 xG, comfortably more than the 0.95 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for RB Leipzig. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
4'E. Dinkci scores for Werder Bremen (assist: Chuki)
68'N. Fullkrug scores for Werder Bremen (assist: M. Grull)
80'M. Grull scores for Werder Bremen
90'R. Baku scores for RB Leipzig (assist: A. Maksimovic)
1.5
xG Created
0.95
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Werder Bremen · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.5-0.95
MW4 · 2026-09-20 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 1.0-2.3.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.97-2.27
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+0.5 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 4.0-1.1.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 3.96-1.09

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-13 · vs Hamburger SV · Home+0.8 pts
Won 5-0 home. xG: 2.4-1.1.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 2.43-1.1
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+0.5 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 4.0-1.1.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 3.96-1.09
MW4 · 2026-09-20 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Away+-0.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 1.0-2.3.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.97-2.27

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.4
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 5.4 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+0.8
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 8.9 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-0.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (30 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS-2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

RB Leipzig are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

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