RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+6
CLS Score

RB Leipzig are getting roughly what they deserve. 59 points vs 49.72 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

59
Points
Expected: 49.72
59
Goals Scored
xG: 59.03
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.36
9.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 22 · 2026-02-15 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · at home
2-2
Drew at home against VfL Wolfsburg

A draw that felt like a loss. RB Leipzig created 2.94 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. VfL Wolfsburg generated just 0.62 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for RB Leipzig. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
52'M. Amoura scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: A. Daghim)
70'Y. Diomande scores for RB Leipzig (assist: B. Gruda)
78'M. Svanberg scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: J. Belocian)
89'B. Gruda scores for RB Leipzig
2.94
xG Created
0.62
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-15 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 2.9 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.94-0.62
MW10 · 2025-11-08 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.81-1.82
MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-1.45

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 2.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.26-3.24
MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs Hamburger SV · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.06-1.53
MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 2.41-3.05

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-16.7
xPTS Gap
9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+13.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 44.4 xGA opponents generated
+8.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (154 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.4
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 59.0 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-2.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.7
Total CLS+6

Rank Per Signal

Where RB Leipzig ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Schedule Strength
1
18
-16.7
4
Injury Burden
1
18
-3.4
11
Finishing Luck
1
18
-2.2
13
Discipline
1
18
+1.7
15
xPTS Gap
1
18
+13.3
16
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+4.9
18
Defensive Luck
1
18
+8.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

RB Leipzig are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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