Utah Jazz

Utah Jazz CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-45
CLS Score

Utah Jazz have been systematically robbed. 22 wins from 27.6 expected — a 5.6-game gap between what their point differential says they deserve and what the standings show. 60 losses, a meaningful slice of them stolen in tight fourth quarters. The Pythagorean math is brutal on them: regression is almost certainly coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

22
Wins
Expected: 27.6
9641
Points For
10333
Points Against
5.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2025-12-19 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · at home
135-143
Lost at home against Los Angeles Lakers

Lost to Los Angeles Lakers 135-143. Shot 63% eFG vs their 60%.

62.7%
Team eFG%
59.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2025-12-19 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Los Angeles Lakers 135-143. Shot 63% eFG vs their 60%.
Score: 135-143 | eFG%: 62.7-59.7
MW36 · 2026-01-08 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 125-129 to Oklahoma City Thunder shooting just 49% eFG (-4.7 below season avg), including 11/41 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 125-129 | eFG%: 49.1-47
MW53 · 2026-02-08 · vs Orlando Magic · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 117-120 to Orlando Magic in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 117-120 | eFG%: 53.3-50.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW54 · 2026-02-10 · vs Miami Heat · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Miami Heat 115-111. Shot 48% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 115-111 | eFG%: 47.8-51.3
MW37 · 2026-01-09 · vs Dallas Mavericks · Home+0.7 pts
Edged Dallas Mavericks 116-114 in a 2-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 116-114 | eFG%: 56.3-60.6
MW3 · 2025-10-28 · vs Phoenix Suns · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Phoenix Suns 138-134. Shot 48% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 138-134 | eFG%: 48.1-51.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-40.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (240 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-4.8
Total CLS-45

Rank Per Signal

Where Utah Jazz ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-40.2
5
Injury Burden
1
30
-4.8

Tank Watch

On the Fence (29/100)

Utah Jazz are on the fence. Some decline but nothing conclusive.

First Half
14-27
0.3% win rate
Second Half
8-33
0.2% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
0.8pts/game
Late losing streaks
2 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
27%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Utah Jazz are deeply cursed at -45. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available