Utah Jazz

Utah Jazz CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-2
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Jazz are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 1 wins vs 0.7 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Wins
Expected: 0.7
215
Points For
214
Points Against
0.3
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 26 · 2025-12-19 · vs Lakers · at home
143-135
Lost at home against Lakers

Lost to Los Angeles Lakers 135-143. Shot 63% eFG vs their 60%.

62.7%
Team eFG%
59.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.6
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm26 · 2025-12-19 · vs Lakers · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Los Angeles Lakers 135-143. Shot 63% eFG vs their 60%.
Score: 135-143 | eFG%: 62.7-59.7
Gm36 · 2026-01-08 · vs Thunder · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 125-129 to Oklahoma City Thunder shooting just 49% eFG (-4.7 below season avg), including 11/41 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 125-129 | eFG%: 49.1-47
Gm53 · 2026-02-08 · vs Magic · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 117-120 to Orlando Magic in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 117-120 | eFG%: 53.3-50.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm54 · 2026-02-10 · vs Heat · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Miami Heat 115-111. Shot 48% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 115-111 | eFG%: 47.8-51.3
Gm37 · 2026-01-09 · vs Mavericks · Home+0.7 pts
Edged Dallas Mavericks 116-114 in a 2-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 116-114 | eFG%: 56.3-60.6
Gm3 · 2025-10-28 · vs Suns · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Phoenix Suns 138-134. Shot 48% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 138-134 | eFG%: 48.1-51.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+1.6
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 42 more threes than league-avg would predict (37.2% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-1.6
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 179 more 2s than league-avg would predict (59.4% vs league)
-1.3
Off 3P Luck
Made 45 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.5% vs league)
-1.2
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.7% FT vs league average — 13 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (4 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+0.1
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Off 2P Luck
Made 2 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.0% vs league)
0
Total CLS-2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Jazz are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available