Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+22
Luck Index Score

Denver Nuggets are getting roughly what they deserve. 49 points vs 49 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

49
Wins
Expected: 49
9346
Points For
Expected: 49
8977
Points Against
0
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 29 · 2025-12-24 · vs Dallas Mavericks · away
130-131
Lost away against Dallas Mavericks

One of those games where nothing went right. Denver Nuggets created 130 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 130 goals on an average day. They scored 130. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Denver Nuggets. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

130
xG Created
131
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW29 · 2025-12-24 · vs Dallas Mavericks · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 130-131 to Dallas Mavericks. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 130-131 | xG: 130-131
MW31 · 2025-12-28 · vs Orlando Magic · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 126-127 to Orlando Magic. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 126-127 | xG: 126-127
MW56 · 2026-02-20 · vs LA Clippers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 114-115 to LA Clippers. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 114-115 | xG: 114-115

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW36 · 2026-01-06 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Philadelphia 76ers 125-124. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 125-124 | xG: 125-124
MW22 · 2025-12-06 · vs Atlanta Hawks · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Atlanta Hawks 134-133. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 134-133 | xG: 134-133
MW73 · 2026-03-25 · vs Phoenix Suns · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Phoenix Suns 125-123. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 125-123 | xG: 125-123

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 3.0% above expected from shot locations (57.5% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+23
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-3
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts
+1
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
+1
Total Luck Index+22

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
50W-27L
+93Blessed
#6 in league
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
46W-31L
+4Neutral
#10 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Denver Nuggets are riding their luck at +22. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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