Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+46
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Nuggets are riding the coin flips. 54 wins from 50 expected — that 4-game gap is the kind of luck that doesn't last. When the close-game variance evens out, the record follows. Top driver: Off 3P Luck (+13.4 CLS impact). Made 106 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (39.6% vs league)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

54
Wins
Expected: 50
10010
Points For
9587
Points Against
4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 5 · 2025-11-01 · vs Trail Blazers · away
109-107
Lost away against Trail Blazers

Lost 107-109 to Portland Trail Blazers shooting just 52% eFG (-5.9 below season avg), including 6/25 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.

51.9%
Team eFG%
47.8%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm5 · 2025-11-01 · vs Trail Blazers · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 107-109 to Portland Trail Blazers shooting just 52% eFG (-5.9 below season avg), including 6/25 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 107-109 | eFG%: 51.9-47.8
Gm18 · 2025-11-29 · vs Spurs · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 136-139 to San Antonio Spurs in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 136-139 | eFG%: 61.5-58
Gm29 · 2025-12-24 · vs Mavericks · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 130-131 to Dallas Mavericks despite winning the efficiency battle 69% to 63% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 130-131 | eFG%: 69-62.9

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm79 · 2026-04-07 · vs Trail Blazers · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Portland Trail Blazers 137-132. Shot 57% eFG vs their 61%.
Score: 137-132 | eFG%: 57.4-61.2
Gm39 · 2026-01-12 · vs Bucks · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Milwaukee Bucks 108-104. Shot 48% eFG vs their 53%.
Score: 108-104 | eFG%: 48.3-52.9
Gm7 · 2025-11-06 · vs Heat · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Miami Heat 122-112. Shot 48% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 122-112 | eFG%: 48-52.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Off 3P Luck
Made 106 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (39.6% vs league)
+13.4
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+11.4
Close Game Record
63% win rate in 8 close games (+0.9 avg margin)
+6
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 35 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (34.9% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+4.5
Off 2P Luck
Made 65 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (56.5% vs league)
+3
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.1% FT vs league average — 23 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+2.9
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 34 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.8% vs league)
-1.2
Total CLS+46

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +46, Nuggets are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available