Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+31
CLS Score

Denver Nuggets have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

54
Wins
Expected: 50
10010
Points For
9587
Points Against
4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2025-11-01 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · away
107-109
Lost away against Portland Trail Blazers

Lost 107-109 to Portland Trail Blazers shooting just 52% eFG (-5.7 below season avg), including 6/25 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.

51.9%
Team eFG%
47.8%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-11-01 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 107-109 to Portland Trail Blazers shooting just 52% eFG (-5.7 below season avg), including 6/25 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 107-109 | eFG%: 51.9-47.8
MW18 · 2025-11-29 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 136-139 to San Antonio Spurs in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 136-139 | eFG%: 61.5-58
MW29 · 2025-12-24 · vs Dallas Mavericks · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 130-131 to Dallas Mavericks despite winning the efficiency battle 69% to 63% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 130-131 | eFG%: 69-62.9

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW79 · 2026-04-07 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Portland Trail Blazers 137-132. Shot 57% eFG vs their 61%.
Score: 137-132 | eFG%: 57.4-61.2
MW39 · 2026-01-12 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Milwaukee Bucks 108-104. Shot 48% eFG vs their 53%.
Score: 108-104 | eFG%: 48.3-52.9
MW7 · 2025-11-06 · vs Miami Heat · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Miami Heat 122-112. Shot 48% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 122-112 | eFG%: 48-52.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+29.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (156 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+1.9
Total CLS+31

Rank Per Signal

Where Denver Nuggets ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

19
Injury Burden
1
30
+1.9
26
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
+29.1

Tank Watch

Competing (0/100)

Denver Nuggets have been consistently poor all season, but there's no second-half decline. Bad, not tanking.

First Half
29-13
0.7% win rate
Second Half
26-16
0.6% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
0.5pts/game
Late losing streaks
0 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
16%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Denver Nuggets are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available