Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+7
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Nuggets are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 1 wins vs 1.2 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Wins
Expected: 1.2
214
Points For
215
Points Against
0.2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 5 · 2025-11-01 · vs Trail Blazers · away
109-107
Lost away against Trail Blazers

Lost 107-109 to Portland Trail Blazers shooting just 52% eFG (-5.9 below season avg), including 6/25 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.

51.9%
Team eFG%
47.8%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm5 · 2025-11-01 · vs Trail Blazers · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 107-109 to Portland Trail Blazers shooting just 52% eFG (-5.9 below season avg), including 6/25 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 107-109 | eFG%: 51.9-47.8
Gm18 · 2025-11-29 · vs Spurs · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 136-139 to San Antonio Spurs in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 136-139 | eFG%: 61.5-58
Gm29 · 2025-12-24 · vs Mavericks · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 130-131 to Dallas Mavericks despite winning the efficiency battle 69% to 63% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 130-131 | eFG%: 69-62.9

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm79 · 2026-04-07 · vs Trail Blazers · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Portland Trail Blazers 137-132. Shot 57% eFG vs their 61%.
Score: 137-132 | eFG%: 57.4-61.2
Gm39 · 2026-01-12 · vs Bucks · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Milwaukee Bucks 108-104. Shot 48% eFG vs their 53%.
Score: 108-104 | eFG%: 48.3-52.9
Gm7 · 2025-11-06 · vs Heat · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Miami Heat 122-112. Shot 48% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 122-112 | eFG%: 48-52.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Off 3P Luck
Made 106 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (39.6% vs league)
+2.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (1 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+1.4
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+1.3
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 35 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (34.9% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+1.1
Off 2P Luck
Made 65 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (56.5% vs league)
+0.5
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.1% FT vs league average — 23 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.5
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 34 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.8% vs league)
-0.2
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS+7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Nuggets are right where they belong. Their CLS of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available