Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+39
CLS Score

Oklahoma City Thunder have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

64
Wins
Expected: 58.3
9760
Points For
8846
Points Against
5.7
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 43 · 2026-01-18 · vs Miami Heat · away
120-122
Lost away against Miami Heat

Lost 120-122 to Miami Heat despite winning the efficiency battle 63% to 46% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

63%
Team eFG%
45.9%
Opp. eFG%
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW43 · 2026-01-18 · vs Miami Heat · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 120-122 to Miami Heat despite winning the efficiency battle 63% to 46% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 120-122 | eFG%: 63-45.9
MW47 · 2026-01-26 · vs Toronto Raptors · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 101-103 to Toronto Raptors shooting just 51% eFG (-4.9 below season avg), including 11/43 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 101-103 | eFG%: 51.3-50
MW9 · 2025-11-06 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 119-121 to Portland Trail Blazers shooting just 50% eFG (-6.2 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 119-121 | eFG%: 50-51.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW68 · 2026-03-15 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Minnesota Timberwolves 116-103 despite being outshot 49% to 56% eFG. Minnesota Timberwolves were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-103 | eFG%: 49-56.5
MW40 · 2026-01-12 · vs Miami Heat · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 124-112 despite being outshot 56% to 64% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 124-112 | eFG%: 55.9-64
MW63 · 2026-03-04 · vs Chicago Bulls · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Chicago Bulls 116-108. Shot 48% eFG vs their 53%.
Score: 116-108 | eFG%: 48.5-52.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+41.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (213 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-2.6
Total CLS+39

Rank Per Signal

Where Oklahoma City Thunder ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

9
Injury Burden
1
30
-2.6
27
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
+41.6

Tank Watch

Competing (3/100)

Oklahoma City Thunder have been consistently poor all season, but there's no second-half decline. Bad, not tanking.

First Half
34-7
0.8% win rate
Second Half
31-11
0.7% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
-0pp
Point differential decline
3.5pts/game
Late losing streaks
0 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
20%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Oklahoma City Thunder are riding their luck at +39. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available