Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-1
Luck Index Score

Oklahoma City Thunder are getting roughly what they deserve. 61 points vs 61.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

61
Wins
Expected: 61.8
9153
Points For
Expected: 61.8
8276
Points Against
0.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 9 · 2025-11-06 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · away
119-121
Lost away against Portland Trail Blazers

One of those games where nothing went right. Oklahoma City Thunder created 119 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 119 goals on an average day. They scored 119. The model valued this match at 0.4 points for Oklahoma City Thunder. They got 0. That's 0.4 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

119
xG Created
121
Opp. xG
-0.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-11-06 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 119-121 to Portland Trail Blazers. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 119-121 | xG: 119-121
MW26 · 2025-12-14 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 109-111 to San Antonio Spurs. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 109-111 | xG: 109-111
MW36 · 2026-01-05 · vs Phoenix Suns · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 105-108 to Phoenix Suns. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 105-108 | xG: 105-108

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW39 · 2026-01-10 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Memphis Grizzlies 117-116. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 117-116 | xG: 117-116
MW1 · 2025-10-21 · vs Houston Rockets · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Houston Rockets 125-124. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 125-124 | xG: 125-124
MW76 · 2026-03-31 · vs Detroit Pistons · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Detroit Pistons 114-110.
Score: 114-110 | xG: 114-110

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.6% above expected from shot locations (56.1% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+10
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-7
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-3
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-2
Total Luck Index-2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
48W-29L
-21Unlucky
#8 in league
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
24W-53L
-25Unlucky
#25 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Oklahoma City Thunder are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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