Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+62
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Thunder are riding the coin flips. 64 wins from 58.1 expected — that 5.9-game gap is the kind of luck that doesn't last. When the close-game variance evens out, the record follows. Top driver: Close Game Record (+19.7 CLS impact). 100% win rate in 6 close games (+3.7 avg margin)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

64
Wins
Expected: 58.1
9760
Points For
8846
Points Against
5.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 43 · 2026-01-18 · vs Heat · away
122-120
Lost away against Heat

Lost 120-122 to Miami Heat despite winning the efficiency battle 63% to 46% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

63%
Team eFG%
45.9%
Opp. eFG%
-1.0
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm43 · 2026-01-18 · vs Heat · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 120-122 to Miami Heat despite winning the efficiency battle 63% to 46% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 120-122 | eFG%: 63-45.9
Gm47 · 2026-01-26 · vs Raptors · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 101-103 to Toronto Raptors shooting just 51% eFG (-4.9 below season avg), including 11/43 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 101-103 | eFG%: 51.3-50
Gm9 · 2025-11-06 · vs Trail Blazers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 119-121 to Portland Trail Blazers shooting just 50% eFG (-6.3 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 119-121 | eFG%: 50-51.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm68 · 2026-03-15 · vs Timberwolves · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Minnesota Timberwolves 116-103 despite being outshot 49% to 56% eFG. Minnesota Timberwolves were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-103 | eFG%: 49-56.5
Gm40 · 2026-01-12 · vs Heat · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 124-112 despite being outshot 56% to 64% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 124-112 | eFG%: 55.9-64
Gm63 · 2026-03-04 · vs Bulls · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Chicago Bulls 116-108. Shot 48% eFG vs their 53%.
Score: 116-108 | eFG%: 48.5-52.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Game Record
100% win rate in 6 close games (+3.7 avg margin)
+19.7
Pythagorean Delta
6 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+16.8
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 74.0% FT vs league average — 78 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+10
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 238 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (49.1% vs league)
+8.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (4 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+6
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 29 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.9% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-5.1
Off 2P Luck
Made 91 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (57.2% vs league)
+4.2
Off 3P Luck
Made 16 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.5% vs league)
+2.1
Total CLS+62

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +62, Thunder are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available