Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+3
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Thunder are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 0 wins vs 0.7 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Wins
Expected: 0.7
110
Points For
116
Points Against
0.7
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 43 · 2026-01-18 · vs Heat · away
122-120
Lost away against Heat

Lost 120-122 to Miami Heat despite winning the efficiency battle 63% to 46% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

63%
Team eFG%
45.9%
Opp. eFG%
-1.0
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm43 · 2026-01-18 · vs Heat · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 120-122 to Miami Heat despite winning the efficiency battle 63% to 46% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 120-122 | eFG%: 63-45.9
Gm47 · 2026-01-26 · vs Raptors · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 101-103 to Toronto Raptors shooting just 51% eFG (-4.9 below season avg), including 11/43 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 101-103 | eFG%: 51.3-50
Gm9 · 2025-11-06 · vs Trail Blazers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 119-121 to Portland Trail Blazers shooting just 50% eFG (-6.3 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 119-121 | eFG%: 50-51.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm68 · 2026-03-15 · vs Timberwolves · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Minnesota Timberwolves 116-103 despite being outshot 49% to 56% eFG. Minnesota Timberwolves were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-103 | eFG%: 49-56.5
Gm40 · 2026-01-12 · vs Heat · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 124-112 despite being outshot 56% to 64% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 124-112 | eFG%: 55.9-64
Gm63 · 2026-03-04 · vs Bulls · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Chicago Bulls 116-108. Shot 48% eFG vs their 53%.
Score: 116-108 | eFG%: 48.5-52.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-2.1
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 74.0% FT vs league average — 78 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+1.9
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 238 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (49.1% vs league)
+1.6
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+1.4
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 29 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.9% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-1
Off 2P Luck
Made 91 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (57.2% vs league)
+0.8
Off 3P Luck
Made 16 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.5% vs league)
+0.4
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS+3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Thunder are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available