Utah Mammoth

Utah Mammoth Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-69
Luck Index Score

Utah Mammoth are the definition of "we deserved more." With 84 points from 94.8 expected, they've been robbed of 10.8 points this season. 0 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 0 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

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84
Points
Expected: 94.8
241
Goals For
Expected: 94.8
214
Goals Against
10.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 24 · 2025-11-26 · vs Montréal Canadiens · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Montréal Canadiens

One of those games where nothing went right. Utah Mammoth created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Utah Mammoth. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2025-11-26 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Montréal Canadiens. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW25 · 2025-11-28 · vs Dallas Stars · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW32 · 2025-12-10 · vs Florida Panthers · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW71 · 2026-03-22 · vs Los Angeles Kings · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Los Angeles Kings 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW63 · 2026-03-07 · vs Columbus Blue Jackets · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Columbus Blue Jackets 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4
MW53 · 2026-01-27 · vs Florida Panthers · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Florida Panthers 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
11 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-57
OT Loss Rate
6 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-8
Close Games
15-17 in one-goal games (47% win rate vs expected 50%)
-4
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total Luck Index-69

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Utah Mammoth are deeply cursed at -69. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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