Colorado Avalanche

Colorado Avalanche CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · View NHL standings →

-23
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Avalanche can't catch a break. 121 points vs 127.2 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-42.8 CLS impact). 6 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

121
Points
Expected: 127.2
302
Goals For
203
Goals Against
6.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

✦ Luckiest Matches

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-42.8
OT Loss Rate
11 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+20.1
Shootout Record
4-6 in shootouts (net -2)
-7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+6.7
Close Games
Not enough one-goal games to measure
0
Total CLS-23

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|81 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -23, Avalanche are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 25th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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