Colorado Avalanche

Colorado Avalanche CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

-18
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Avalanche can't catch a break. 121 points vs 127.2 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-32.0 CLS impact). 6 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

121
Points
Expected: 127.2
302
Goals For
203
Goals Against
6.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 63 · 2026-03-10 · vs Oilers · at home
4-3
Lost at home against Oilers

Lost 3-4 against Edmonton Oilers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm63 · 2026-03-10 · vs Oilers · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Edmonton Oilers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm74 · 2026-04-01 · vs Canucks · Home-0.9 pts
Lost to Vancouver Canucks 6-8.
Score: 6-8
Gm9 · 2025-10-25 · vs Bruins · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Boston Bruins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm61 · 2026-03-06 · vs Stars · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Dallas Stars 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm37 · 2025-12-27 · vs Golden Knights · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Vegas Golden Knights 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm16 · 2025-11-09 · vs Canucks · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Vancouver Canucks 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-32
OT Loss Rate
11 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+15
Injury Burden
High injury burden (1 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+6.3
Shootout Record
4-6 in shootouts (net -2)
-5.2
Close Games
14-15 in one-goal games (48% win rate vs expected 50%)
-2.1
Total CLS-18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Avalanche are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available