Colorado Avalanche Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-29

Luck Index Score

Colorado Avalanche can't catch a break. 108 points when they deserve 114.2? That's 6.2 points stolen by the football gods. 25 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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108

Points

Expected: 114.2

283

Goals For

Expected: 114.2

193

Goals Against

6.2

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 63 · 2026-03-10 · vs Edmonton Oilers · at home

3-4

Lost at home against Edmonton Oilers

One of those games where nothing went right. Colorado Avalanche created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Colorado Avalanche. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW63 · 2026-03-10 · vs Edmonton Oilers · Home-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Edmonton Oilers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW74 · 2026-04-01 · vs Vancouver Canucks · Home-0.9 pts

Lost to Vancouver Canucks 6-8.

Score: 6-8 | xG: 6-8

MW9 · 2025-10-25 · vs Boston Bruins · Away-0.8 pts

Lost 2-3 against Boston Bruins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW61 · 2026-03-06 · vs Dallas Stars · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Dallas Stars 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

MW37 · 2025-12-27 · vs Vegas Golden Knights · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Vegas Golden Knights 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 6-5 | xG: 6-5

MW16 · 2025-11-09 · vs Vancouver Canucks · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Vancouver Canucks 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

6 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

-32

OT Loss Rate

10 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points

+13

Shootout Record

3-6 in shootouts (net -3)

-9

Close Games

13-13 in one-goal games (50% win rate vs expected 50%)

Total Luck Index-28

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -29, Colorado Avalanche are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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