Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas Golden Knights CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-31
CLS Score

Vegas Golden Knights can't catch a break. 95 points vs 97.7 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

95
Points
Expected: 97.7
265
Goals For
250
Goals Against
2.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 34 · 2025-12-21 · vs Edmonton Oilers · away
3-4
Lost away against Edmonton Oilers

Lost 3-4 against Edmonton Oilers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW34 · 2025-12-21 · vs Edmonton Oilers · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Edmonton Oilers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW39 · 2026-01-02 · vs St. Louis Blues · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against St. Louis Blues. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW49 · 2026-01-22 · vs Boston Bruins · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Boston Bruins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW62 · 2026-03-04 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Detroit Red Wings 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW46 · 2026-01-15 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Toronto Maple Leafs 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5
MW41 · 2026-01-06 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Shootout Record
1-8 in shootouts (net -7)
-18.8
Close Games
16-27 in one-goal games (37% win rate vs expected 50%)
-16.2
Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-13.7
OT Loss Rate
17 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+13.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (226 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+4.1
Total CLS-31

Rank Per Signal

Where Vegas Golden Knights ranks among NHL teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Shootout Record
1
32
-18.8
3
Close Games
1
32
-16.2
8
Pythagorean Delta
1
32
-13.7
25
Injury Burden
1
32
+4.1
30
OT Loss Rate
1
32
+13.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: improving

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -31, Vegas Golden Knights are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available