Villarreal

Villarreal CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+31
CLS Score

Villarreal have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

61
Points
Expected: 48.69
56
Goals Scored
xG: 47.36
36
Goals Conceded
xGA: 37.45
12.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Atletico Madrid · away
0-2
Lost away against Atletico Madrid

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Villarreal. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'P. Barrios scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: J. Alvarez)
52'N. Gonzalez scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: M. Llorente)
1.03
xG Created
1.01
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.03-1.01
MW30 · 2026-04-06 · vs Girona · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.55-0.48
MW19 · 2026-01-17 · vs Real Betis · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.99-1.22

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-09-27 · vs Athletic Club · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.22-1.44
MW31 · 2026-04-12 · vs Athletic Club · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.29-1.2
MW17 · 2026-01-03 · vs Elche · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.52-1.31

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
12 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+20.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 9 more goals than their 47.4 xG - clinical finishing
+14.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+10.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (180 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 37.5 xGA opponents generated
+1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.3
Total CLS+31

Rank Per Signal

Where Villarreal ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Injury Burden
1
20
-9.4
4
Schedule Strength
1
20
-6
10
Defensive Luck
1
20
+1
10
Discipline
1
20
-0.3
19
xPTS Gap
1
20
+20.8
19
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+10.5
20
Finishing Luck
1
20
+14.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Villarreal are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 15th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

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