Villarreal

Villarreal CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+30
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Villarreal have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+19.1 CLS impact). 12 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

69
Points
Expected: 57.29
67
Goals Scored
xG: 55.75
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.19
11.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Atletico Madrid · away
0-2
Lost away against Atletico Madrid

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Villarreal. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'P. Barrios scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: J. Alvarez)
52'N. Gonzalez scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: M. Llorente)
1.03
xG Created
1.01
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.03-1.01
MW30 · 2026-04-06 · vs Girona · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.55-0.48
MW36 · 2026-05-13 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 0.83-0.87

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-04-26 · vs Celta Vigo · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.72-2.08
MW7 · 2025-09-27 · vs Athletic Club · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.22-1.44
MW31 · 2026-04-12 · vs Athletic Club · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.29-1.2

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
12 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+19.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 11 more goals than their 55.8 xG - clinical finishing
+18
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-12.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+10.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (182 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.8
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 45.2 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-0.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS+30

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Villarreal are riding their luck at +30. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
05-24
H
Atletico Madrid
Bet