Villarreal

Villarreal Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+35
Luck Index Score

Villarreal have been living on borrowed time. 58 points from 45.92 expected? They're 12.08 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

58
Points
Expected: 45.92
54
Goals Scored
xG: 45.52
34
Goals Conceded
xGA: 35.77
12.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-02-14 · vs Getafe · away
1-2
Lost away against Getafe

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.7 points for Villarreal. They got 0. That's 0.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'P. Barrios scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: J. Alvarez)
52'N. Gonzalez scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: M. Llorente)
0.6
xG Created
1.48
Opp. xG
-0.7
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.03-1.01
MW19 · 2026-01-17 · vs Real Betis · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.99-1.22
MW16 · 2025-12-21 · vs Barcelona · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 0-2 home. xG: 1.7-2.7.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.66-2.72

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-09-27 · vs Athletic Club · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.22-1.44
MW17 · 2026-01-03 · vs Elche · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.52-1.31
MW22 · 2026-02-09 · vs Espanyol · Home+1.4 pts
Won 4-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 0.76-0.43

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
12 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+24
Finishing Luck
Scored 8 more goals than their 45.5 xG - clinical finishing
+17
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+12
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-10
Injury Burden
High injury burden (164 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 35.8 xGA opponents generated
+2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total Luck Index+36

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Valencia
Valencia
9W-8D-12L
-41Cursed
#13 in league
Real Betis
Real Betis
11W-11D-7L
-1Neutral
#5 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: improving|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Villarreal are riding their luck at +35. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches
04-06
A
Girona
Bet
04-12
A
Athletic Club
Bet
04-22
A
Oviedo
Bet
04-25
H
Celta Vigo
Bet
05-03
H
Levante
Bet
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