Villarreal

Villarreal CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-15
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Villarreal are getting roughly what they deserve. 8 points vs 12.63 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-9.0 CLS impact). 5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

8
Points
Expected: 12.63
13
Goals Scored
xG: 16.3
12
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.85
4.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-08-28 · vs Alaves · away
0-1
Lost away against Alaves

One of those games where nothing went right. Villarreal generated 1.4 xG, comfortably more than the 0.81 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Villarreal. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
31'L. Boye scores for Alaves (assist: A. Perez)
1.4
xG Created
0.81
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-08-28 · vs Alaves · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.4-0.81
MW2 · 2026-08-23 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-1.6 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 3.6 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.6-0.78
MW4 · 2026-09-05 · vs Deportivo La Coruna · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.14-0.79

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-16 · vs Racing Santander · Away+0.4 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 0.7-1.9.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 0.67-1.87
MW6 · 2026-09-17 · vs Malaga · Away+0.3 pts
Won 3-1 away. xG: 3.3-0.6.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 3.33-0.63
MW7 · 2026-09-20 · vs Levante · Home+0.3 pts
Won 3-1 home. xG: 4.3-0.5.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 4.27-0.45

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 16.3 xG - wasting chances
-6.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (8 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 8.8 xGA opponents generated
-3.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.4
Total CLS-15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Villarreal are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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