Wolves Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-55

Luck Index Score

Wolves are the definition of "we deserved more." With 17 points from 31.54 expected, they've been robbed of 14.54 points this season. 8 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 4 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

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Points

Expected: 31.54

Goals Scored

xG: 28.04

Goals Conceded

xGA: 47.61

14.5

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Leeds · at home

1-3

Lost at home against Leeds

A defeat that defied the run of play. Wolves generated 1.78 xG, comfortably more than the 0.48 their opponent managed. Leeds created almost nothing - just 0.48 xG - but scored 3 goals. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Wolves. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

8'L. Krejci scores for Wolves (assist: F. Lopez)

31'D. Calvert-Lewin scores for Leeds

39'A. Stach scores for Leeds

45'N. Okafor scores for Leeds (assist: A. Stach)

1.78

xG Created

0.48

Opp. xG

-2.3

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Leeds · Home-2.3 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.78-0.48

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Burnley · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 2-3 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.28-1.43

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Crystal Palace · Home-1.7 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.79-1.27

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-03-03 · vs Liverpool · Home+2.5 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.44-1.83

MW29 · 2026-02-27 · vs Aston Villa · Home+1.8 pts

Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.92-1.06

MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away+0.8 pts

Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.4-2.5.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.42-2.55

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

15 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-27

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-10

Defensive Luck

Conceded 6 more goals than the 47.6 xGA opponents generated

-9

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 28.0 xG - wasting chances

-6

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (107 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-5

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-3

Total Luck Index-55

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Improve

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Wolves are deeply cursed at -55. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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