Wolves

Wolves CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-53
CLS Score

Wolves: 17 points from 32 expected, a gap of 15.2. Finishing has cost them: 5 fewer goals than their 29.2 xG should produce. Defensively, 8 more goals conceded than the 52.7 xGA opponents generated. 22 losses, 8 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

17
Points
Expected: 32.19
24
Goals Scored
xG: 29.17
61
Goals Conceded
xGA: 52.74
15.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Leeds · at home
1-3
Lost at home against Leeds

A defeat that defied the run of play. Wolves generated 1.78 xG, comfortably more than the 0.48 their opponent managed. Leeds created almost nothing - just 0.48 xG - but scored 3 goals. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Wolves. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
8'L. Krejci scores for Wolves (assist: F. Lopez)
31'D. Calvert-Lewin scores for Leeds
39'A. Stach scores for Leeds
45'N. Okafor scores for Leeds (assist: A. Stach)
1.78
xG Created
0.48
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Leeds · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.78-0.48
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Burnley · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.28-1.43
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Crystal Palace · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.79-1.27

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-03-03 · vs Liverpool · Home+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.44-1.83
MW29 · 2026-02-27 · vs Aston Villa · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.92-1.06
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away+0.8 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.4-2.5.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.42-2.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
15 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-24.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 more goals than the 52.7 xGA opponents generated
-10.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-10.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 29.2 xG - wasting chances
-7.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (119 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.8
Total CLS-53

Rank Per Signal

Where Wolves ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
xPTS Gap
1
20
-24.4
1
Defensive Luck
1
20
-10.9
1
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-10.1
3
Discipline
1
20
-2.9
4
Finishing Luck
1
20
-7.1
10
Schedule Strength
1
20
-1.8
14
Injury Burden
1
20
+4.2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: improving|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Wolves are deeply cursed at -53. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch. That eases the path to correction.

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