Blog/⚽ Premier League

Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Unlucky? CURSD Match Report

CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Unlucky (-19) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+19). xG: 1.18-0.36.

4 - 1
xG: 1.2 - 0.4
Nottingham ForestxG 1.18 β†’ 4 goals
BurnleyxG 0.36 β†’ 1 goal
CURSD Verdict
Burnley
-19
Unlucky πŸ˜”
Nottingham Forest
+19
Lucky 😏
April 19, 2026

CURSD Match Report: Burnley πŸ˜” Unlucky (-19) | Nottingham Forest 😏 Lucky (+19)

Nottingham Forest created 1.18 xG. Burnley created 0.36 xG. The scoreboard read 4-1. The data says Burnley deserved more from this match.

The Data

StatNottingham ForestBurnley
xG1.180.36
Goals41
Shots (on target)10 (4)4 (3)
Shots inside box83
Possession51%49%
Corners44
GK saves21
Fouls812
Cards (Y/R)0/02/0

Key Events

45' Goal - Z. Flemming (assist: Q. Hartman) (Burnley)

62' Goal - M. Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest)

69' Goal - M. Gibbs-White (assist: O. Hutchinson) (Nottingham Forest)

77' Goal - M. Gibbs-White (assist: R. Yates) (Nottingham Forest)

90' Goal - Igor Jesus (assist: N. Dominguez) (Nottingham Forest)

Verdict

- Nottingham Forest created 1.18 xG, scored 4 - Burnley created 0.36 xG, scored 1

CURSD Match Score: Burnley -19 (Unlucky) | Nottingham Forest +19 (Lucky)

The xG share gap between process and outcome defines this match's luck signature. Burnley deserved a better outcome.

Match Stats

Nottingham ForestBurnley
4Goals1
1.2xG0.4
10Shots4
51%Possession49%
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