AS Roma travelled to San Siro on Matchweek 31 and delivered one of the most statistically generous defensive performances Serie A has seen this season. A 5-2 defeat sounds like a team that got overrun. The xG tells a very different story.
Inter's expected goals for the match: 1.51. Their actual goals: five. That is a finishing surplus of 3.49 goals, the kind of number that makes data analysts quietly close their laptops.
A Masterclass in Defensive Generosity
Roma did not collapse under sustained pressure. They collapsed under the precise absence of it. Inter managed 17 shots, nine on target, which is respectable but hardly siege-level. Roma themselves had nine shots of their own and even found the net twice, slightly overperforming their 0.96 xG.
But this was never about what Roma did with the ball. It was about what happened every time Inter looked vaguely threatening. Nine shots on target producing five goals is a 55.6% conversion rate. For context, anything above 35% over a full match is considered exceptional. Inter did not need to create quality. Roma supplied it for them.
The combined xG for the match was 2.47. Seven goals were scored.
That is not a football match. That is a rounding error with consequences.
The Numbers, in Case You Were Hoping They'd Help
The total xG divergence sits at 4.53 goals between what the data expected and what actually happened. Roma contributed to this generously on both ends, conceding 3.49 more than they should have while their own finishing provided a modest 1.04 bonus that nobody will remember.
Inter, to their credit, did not ask questions. They simply accepted every gift Roma's backline offered, collected their three points, and moved on. Zero yellow cards. Clinical efficiency built on absolutely nothing resembling clinical chance creation.
Looking Ahead
Roma's underlying numbers remain stubbornly close to average. Their results do not. The gap between the two is where CURSD lives, and Roma keep paying rent on time.