Hellas Verona have generated enough expected goals, prevented enough expected goals against, and created enough expected points to be sitting on 40.64 points from 35 Serie A matches. They have 20. The gap between what the underlying numbers say Verona should be and what the table says they are is 20.64 points, one of the most painful xPoints deltas in European football this season.
That is not a rounding error. That is an entire tier of the table evaporating into thin air.
The xPoints Chasm
Let's be precise about what 40.64 expected points would mean. It would place Verona comfortably in the lower-middle of Serie A, roughly level with sides fighting for anonymity rather than survival. It would not make them good. It would make them mediocre, and mediocre would be a staggering upgrade from 20th place with 20 points. The -20.64 xPoints delta ranks them second in CURSD's Serie A cursed rankings, behind only Pisa's nightmarish -82 Luck Index. Verona's Luck Index sits at -56, a number that reflects a season where almost every coin flip has landed the wrong way.
Eleven draws tell part of that story. Verona have drawn nearly a third of their matches, and in expected terms, several of those should have been wins. Likewise, the cluster of narrow defeats hides performances that, on the balance of chances created and conceded, deserved more.
The Finishing Problem
Verona have scored 24 goals from 32.55 xG. That finishing delta of -8.55 is enormous over 35 matches. To put it plainly, they have left roughly one goal every four games on the pitch, converting quality chances into missed opportunities at a rate that borders on the clinical definition of a slump.
They are not being starved of opportunity. Their 389 shots are lower than the 466 they have conceded, but they are generating looks of reasonable quality, as the 32.55 xG confirms. The ball is reaching the right areas. It is simply not reaching the net. Whether that is finishing quality, confidence erosion, or some combination of both, the output has been devastating.
Defense: Cursed, Not Leaky
The xGA number is where Verona's curse sharpens. Their expected goals against stands at 43.56. They have conceded 57. That is a defensive overperformance gap of 13.44 goals in the wrong direction, meaning Verona's defense has been punished for an extra goal roughly every 2.6 matches beyond what the quality of chances they conceded would suggest.
Some of that is goalkeeping. Some is set-piece misfortune. Some is the compounding psychological weight of a season where nothing sticks. But the structural point remains: Verona are not conceding because they are tactically naïve. Their xGA of 43.56 from 466 shots against suggests a defense that bends. The 57 goals conceded suggest a defense that also gets unlucky.
What the Curse Is and Isn't
Honesty matters here. Verona's net xG is -11.01. They are being outshot. Their schedule strength of 1.23 means they have faced a slightly above-average run of opponents. This is not a secretly good team being robbed by the football gods. This is a limited team being made to look significantly worse than it is.
Their injury burden of 53 is less than half the league average of 120, which removes one of the most common explanations for underperformance. Verona have been largely healthy. Their 83 yellow cards and 4 reds suggest a side that fouls to survive, but not excessively. The discipline has not been the issue. The margins have.
What Regression Would Actually Buy Them
With three matches remaining, full regression to expected performance is not coming. But the data offers a grim consolation. If Verona had converted at league-average finishing rates and conceded closer to their xGA across the full season, they would likely sit somewhere between 37 and 42 points. That range is the difference between a relegation battle and quiet survival.
They did not get quiet survival. They got 20 points, 24 goals, and a season where the numbers kept whispering one thing while the scoreboard screamed another. Pisa may own the top spot in Serie A's cursed rankings, but Verona's case might be the more instructive one, a team bad enough to struggle and unlucky enough to drown.