Hellas Verona have earned 20 points from 36 Serie A matches this season. Their expected points total is 42.04. That is a gap of -22.04, which means Verona have left more than an entire half-season's worth of points on the pitch through variance alone. They are not the unluckiest team in Italian football this year (that distinction belongs to Pisa, whose Luck Index of -80 is genuinely staggering), but Verona's curse might be the most instructive. Because this is a team that is both meaningfully flawed and meaningfully punished beyond what those flaws deserve.
Nobody is talking about it.
The xPoints Chasm
Forty-two points would place Verona comfortably in the lower-middle of Serie A, roughly 14th or 15th, clear of the relegation conversation entirely. Instead, 20 points from 3 wins, 11 draws, and 22 losses has them cemented at the bottom of the table. That -22.04 xPoints delta is not a rounding error. It is the second-largest negative gap in the division. At some point, the word "unlucky" stops feeling adequate and "cursed" becomes the only honest framing.
The CURSD Luck Index has Verona at -59, second in Serie A behind only Pisa. The number captures what the raw table cannot: a team whose results have diverged from process to a degree that is statistically extreme.
The Finishing Drought
Verona have scored 24 goals from an expected goals figure of 33.52. That finishing delta of -9.52 is enormous. It means roughly one in every three expected goals has simply not gone in. Their 400 shots across 36 matches represent a decent enough volume, about 11.1 per game, but the conversion has been dismal in ways that the chance quality does not explain.
To put it plainly: Verona have created enough to score 33 or 34 goals this season. They have scored 24. Nine or ten goals have evaporated somewhere between the expected and the actual, and those missing goals translate directly into missing points.
The Defensive Bleed
Here is where honesty matters. Verona's xGA of 44.46 is not good. Conceding that volume of expected goals across 36 matches reflects genuine structural problems, a team being outshot 477 to 400, a defense that is under pressure more often than not. Their net xG of -10.94 confirms this is not a secretly elite squad.
But 44.46 expected goals against became 58 actual goals against. That defensive variance of +13.54 means Verona have conceded nearly 14 more goals than the quality of chances they allowed would suggest. Opponents have been clinical against them in ways that go well beyond what the underlying chances warranted. Being outperformed on both sides of the ball simultaneously, by this margin, is rare.
What the Curse Is and Is Not
Verona are not a good team suffering an injustice. A net xG of -10.94 is the profile of a side that belongs in the bottom third. Their schedule strength of 1.22, moderately above average, has not helped. But their discipline has been reasonable (84 yellows, 4 reds, nothing egregious), and their injury burden of 65 is nearly half the league average of 120. This is not a squad ravaged by absences.
The curse is specific. It lives in the -9.52 finishing delta and the +13.54 defensive overperformance by opponents. Verona created like a 33-goal team and defended like a 44-goal-against team. Both of those profiles describe a struggling side. Neither describes a side with 20 points.
What Regression Would Actually Buy Them
With two matches remaining, regression is mostly academic now. Even if Verona's underlying process held and luck normalized over those final fixtures, they might claw back 3 or 4 additional points. That would not change their fate.
The more useful lens is retrospective. A team performing to its expected numbers, roughly 42 points over a full season, survives relegation with room to spare. That version of Verona probably finishes 14th. Instead, they are staring at the drop with 20 points and a season defined by the largest gap between what should have happened and what did.
Some curses are loud. This one just quietly ate a team alive.