Blog/⚽ Premier League

Nottingham Forest Win It, but the Data Disagrees

Manchester City created 1.8 xG but lost 3-1. The xG gap of 0.7 tells a different story.

Nottingham ForestxG 1.10 β†’ 3 goals
Manchester CityxG 1.78 β†’ 1 goal
0.78 xG left on the table
CURSD Verdict
Manchester City
-54
Cursed πŸ’€
Nottingham Forest
+54
Blessed 🎰
November 7, 2026

CURSD Match Report: Manchester City πŸ’€ Cursed (-54) | Nottingham Forest 🎰 Blessed (+54)

Nottingham Forest created 1.10 xG. Manchester City created 1.78 xG. The scoreboard read 3-1. The data says Manchester City deserved more from this match.

The Data

StatNottingham ForestManchester City
xG1.101.78
Goals31
Shots (on target)11 (5)12 (4)
Shots inside box710
Possession22%78%
Corners37
GK saves22
Fouls137
Cards (Y/R)4/00/0

Key Events

6' Goal - Jair Cunha (Nottingham Forest)

18' Goal - Liam Delap (assist: Xaver Schlager) (Nottingham Forest)

52' Goal - Rayan Cherki (Manchester City)

73' Goal - Liam Delap (assist: Morgan Gibbs-White) (Nottingham Forest)

Verdict

- Nottingham Forest created 1.10 xG, scored 3 - Manchester City created 1.78 xG, scored 1

CURSD Match Score: Manchester City -54 (Cursed) | Nottingham Forest +54 (Blessed)

The xG share gap between process and outcome defines this match's luck signature. Manchester City were robbed by the data's standards.

Match Stats

Nottingham ForestManchester City
3Goals1
1.1xG1.8
11Shots12
22%Possession78%
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Common Questions

Nottingham Forest Win It, but the Data Disagrees?

Manchester City created 1.8 xG but lost 3-1. The xG gap of 0.7 tells a different story.

Which team is the most cursed in Premier League?

Manchester City currently has the lowest CURSD Luck Score in Premier League: Manchester City created 1.8 xG but lost 3-1. The xG gap of 0.7 tells a different story.

Which team is the most blessed in Premier League?

Nottingham Forest currently has the highest CURSD Luck Score in Premier League.

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