Manchester City

Manchester City CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+52
CLS Score

Manchester City have been living on borrowed time. 67 points from 58.36 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

67
Points
Expected: 58.36
65
Goals Scored
xG: 58.37
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 35.59
8.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Tottenham · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Tottenham

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Manchester City generated 1.55 xG, comfortably more than the 1.11 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Manchester City. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'B. Johnson scores for Tottenham (assist: Richarlison)
45'J. Palhinha scores for Tottenham
1.55
xG Created
1.11
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Tottenham · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.55-1.11
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Aston Villa · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-0.81
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Newcastle · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.49-2.24

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.19-1.88
MW32 · 2026-04-19 · vs Arsenal · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.41-1.53
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Fulham · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.37-1.42

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+14.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 58.4 xG - clinical finishing
+11.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+8.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 35.6 xGA opponents generated
+7.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (142 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.8
Total CLS+52

Rank Per Signal

Where Manchester City ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

10
Injury Burden
1
20
+0.8
15
Discipline
1
20
+1.7
16
Schedule Strength
1
20
+8.3
18
xPTS Gap
1
20
+14.8
18
Defensive Luck
1
20
+7.2
19
Finishing Luck
1
20
+11.4
20
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+7.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +52, Manchester City are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

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