Manchester City

Manchester City CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+58
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Manchester City have been living on borrowed time. 78 points from 67.67 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+16.2 CLS impact). 10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

78
Points
Expected: 67.67
76
Goals Scored
xG: 69.32
33
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.9
10.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Tottenham · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Tottenham

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Manchester City generated 1.55 xG, comfortably more than the 1.11 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Manchester City. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'B. Johnson scores for Tottenham (assist: Richarlison)
45'J. Palhinha scores for Tottenham
1.55
xG Created
1.11
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Tottenham · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.55-1.11
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Aston Villa · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-0.81
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Newcastle · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.49-2.24

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.19-1.88
MW32 · 2026-04-19 · vs Arsenal · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected. Read match report →
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.41-1.53
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Fulham · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.37-1.42

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+16.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 9 fewer goals than the 41.9 xGA opponents generated
+10.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 69.3 xG - clinical finishing
+9.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+9.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (146 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.2
Total CLS+58

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +58, Manchester City are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches
05-24
H
Aston Villa
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
2
of 20
No change from current 2
Projected Points
80
from 78 now (+2 remaining)
Pace
1.83
expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Manchester City has scored 7 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Haaland FWD£14.764.3%2725.5+1.5Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Semenyo MID£8.146.9%1611.0+5.0Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Cherki MID£6.619.0%44.3-0.3Finishing in line with xG
Reijnders MID£5.08.9%54.1+0.9Finishing in line with xG
Foden MID£8.07.6%76.0+1.0Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).