Manchester City

Manchester City CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+28
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Manchester City have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+11.8 CLS impact). 7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

15
Points
Expected: 7.76
13
Goals Scored
xG: 4.46
5
Goals Conceded
xGA: 1.31
7.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Bournemouth · at home
2-1
Won at home against Bournemouth

One of those games where nothing went right. Manchester City created 2.25 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Bournemouth generated just 0.65 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Manchester City. They got 3. That's 0.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
26'M. Tavernier scores for Bournemouth (assist: Evanilson)
84'M. Guehi scores for Manchester City (assist: R. Cherki)
90'J. Gvardiol scores for Manchester City (assist: R. Cherki)
2.25
xG Created
0.65
Opp. xG
0.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Bournemouth · Home+0.6 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 2.3-0.7.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.25-0.65
MW2 · 2026-08-28 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+0.6 pts
Won 4-1 away. xG: 2.2-0.7.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.21-0.66
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Coventry · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected. Read match report →
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Sunderland · Home+2.0 pts
Won 5-3 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected. Read match report →
Score: 5-3 | xG: 0-0
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Manchester United · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected. Read match report →
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0-0
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Coventry · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected. Read match report →
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+11.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 9 more goals than their 4.5 xG - clinical finishing
+6.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (9 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.3
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 1.3 xGA opponents generated
-0.1
Total CLS+28

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Manchester City are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
10-11
A
Liverpool
Bet
10-17
H
Ipswich
Bet
10-24
A
Aston Villa
Bet
10-31
H
Brighton
Bet
11-07
A
Nottingham Forest
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
1
of 20
No change from current 1
Projected Points
85
from 15 now (+70 remaining)
Pace
1.55
expected pts per game · 33 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Manchester City has scored 9 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Haaland FWD£15.673.9%54.4+0.6Finishing in line with xG
Cherki MID£7.828.5%30.7+2.3Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Semenyo MID£8.414.8%20.3+1.7Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Ndiaye MID£5.86.5%00.4-0.4Finishing in line with xG
Anderson MID£6.33.9%00.1-0.1Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).