October 20, 2026
Regression Watch: Ligue 1's Luck Ledger Is Wildly Unbalanced
Le Havre sit 6.24 xPoints below their actual total, the widest gap in France's top flight.
October 17, 2026
Le Havre Are Ligue 1's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A 5.51-point gap between expected and actual results tells a story Le Havre's finishing refuses to.
October 7, 2026
Card Shark: Ranking Ligue 1 Teams by Discipline Luck
Lens lead the league in yellow and red cards through seven matchdays. Troyes and Lorient are getting away clean.
September 22, 2026
Ligue 1 Regression Watch: Monaco's 6.72-Point Mirage and the Lens Correction Brewing Underneath
The expected-points model sees a very different table than the one Ligue 1 is actually showing.
September 12, 2026
Auxerre Are Ligue 1's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Confirm What the Table Already Screams.
Zero points from 2.27 expected: Auxerre's early-season misfortune is real, but it's not the whole story.
May 2, 2026
Metz Are Ligue 1's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A 12.92-point gap between expected and actual results makes Metz the league's premier hard-luck story.
April 16, 2026
Metz Are Ligue 1's Unluckiest Team. The Numbers Aren't Even Close.
A -11.88 xPoints delta makes Metz the most cursed side in France by a wide margin.
April 15, 2026
The Hidden Curse of Ligue 1: Nice's Season of Compound Misery
Nice are not secretly elite. But the data says they should not be this deep in trouble.