1. FC Köln

1. FC Köln CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-30
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

1. FC Köln can't catch a break. 32 points when the data says they deserve closer to 43.83? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-16.6 CLS impact). 12 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

32
Points
Expected: 43.83
49
Goals Scored
xG: 52.01
63
Goals Conceded
xGA: 55.48
11.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-25 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Bayer Leverkusen

A defeat that defied the run of play. 1. FC Köln created 3.04 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Bayer Leverkusen generated just 1.33 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for 1. FC Köln. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
43'P. Schick scores for Bayer Leverkusen
52'P. Schick scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: N. Tella)
77'L. Waldschmidt scores for 1. FC Köln (assist: S. El Mala)
3.04
xG Created
1.33
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-25 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.04-1.33
MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs FC St. Pauli · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.91-0.14
MW33 · 2026-05-10 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.17-1.36

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2025-10-03 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.94-1.12
MW1 · 2025-08-24 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.36-1.52
MW20 · 2026-01-30 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Home+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.26-1.15

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
12 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-16.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 more goals than the 55.5 xGA opponents generated
-6.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 52.0 xG - wasting chances
-5.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3
Total CLS-30

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -30, 1. FC Köln are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 12 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available