Borussia Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-6
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach are getting roughly what they deserve. 38 points vs 40.85 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

38
Points
Expected: 40.85
42
Goals Scored
xG: 42.9
53
Goals Conceded
xGA: 52.68
2.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-30 · vs VfB Stuttgart · away
0-1
Lost away against VfB Stuttgart

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Borussia Mönchengladbach generated 1.82 xG, comfortably more than the 0.84 their opponent managed. VfB Stuttgart generated just 0.84 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Borussia Mönchengladbach. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
79'C. Andres scores for VfB Stuttgart (assist: J. Leweling)
1.82
xG Created
0.84
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-30 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.82-0.84
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home-1.1 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.17-1.56
MW22 · 2026-02-14 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.19-1.64

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW34 · 2026-05-16 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Home+1.9 pts
Won 4-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 1.2-1.62
MW26 · 2026-03-13 · vs FC St. Pauli · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.64-0.51
MW10 · 2025-11-08 · vs 1. FC Köln · Home+1.2 pts
Won 3-1 home from 3.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.98-2.22

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 fewer goals than their 42.9 xG - wasting chances
-3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 52.7 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+1.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (158 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.1
Total CLS-6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Borussia Mönchengladbach are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available