Borussia Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-18
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach can't catch a break. 0 points when the data says they deserve closer to 3.38? 4 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-7.1 CLS impact). 3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Points
Expected: 3.38
6
Goals Scored
xG: 6.88
16
Goals Conceded
xGA: 11.69
3.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-19 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · at home
3-4
Lost at home against FSV Mainz 05

One of those games where nothing went right. Borussia Mönchengladbach created 3.24 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Borussia Mönchengladbach. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
11'F. Neuhaus scores for Borussia Mönchengladbach (assist: L. Ullrich)
18'P. Tietz scores for FSV Mainz 05 (assist: S. Becker)
45'S. Becker scores for FSV Mainz 05 (assist: A. Caci)
57'Kevin Diks scores for Borussia Mönchengladbach
59'I. Lidberg scores for Borussia Mönchengladbach (assist: L. Ullrich)
78'E. Martel scores for FSV Mainz 05 (assist: K. Sano)
89'D. da Costa scores for FSV Mainz 05
90'S. Machino scores for Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.24
xG Created
2.82
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 3.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3.24-2.82
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs SV Elversberg · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.36-2.31
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs RB Leipzig · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 1.1-4.0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.09-3.96

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs SC Freiburg · Away+-0.1 pts
Lost 0-5 away. xG: 0.2-2.6.
Score: 0-5 | xG: 0.19-2.6
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs RB Leipzig · Away+-0.3 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 1.1-4.0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.09-3.96
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs SV Elversberg · Home+-1.4 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.36-2.31

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 11.7 xGA opponents generated
-2.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 fewer goals than their 6.9 xG - wasting chances
-2.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (39 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.2
Total CLS-18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Borussia Mönchengladbach are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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