Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+15
Luck Index Score

Bayer Leverkusen are getting roughly what they deserve. 49 points vs 47.61 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

49
Points
Expected: 47.61
58
Goals Scored
xG: 51.71
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.5
1.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2025-08-23 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · at home
1-2
Lost at home against 1899 Hoffenheim

One of those games where nothing went right. 1899 Hoffenheim created almost nothing - just 0.45 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Bayer Leverkusen. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
28'R. Khedira scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Kemlein)
0.71
xG Created
0.45
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-21 · vs Union Berlin · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.94-0.55
MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs FC Augsburg · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.63-1.28
MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.71-0.45

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-22 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.1-2.13
MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs FC St. Pauli · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.69-0.82
MW19 · 2026-01-31 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.15-1.1

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+8
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 51.7 xG - clinical finishing
+5.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (144 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 34.5 xGA opponents generated
-2.5
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.4
Total Luck Index+15

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Bayern München
Bayern München
23W-4D-1L
+62Blessed
#1 in league
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
19W-7D-2L
+45Blessed
#2 in league
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach
7W-9D-12L
-13Neutral
#13 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bayer Leverkusen are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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