Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+17
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Schedule Strength (+6.0 CLS impact). Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

59
Points
Expected: 56.2
68
Goals Scored
xG: 65.7
47
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.17
2.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 30 · 2026-04-18 · vs FC Augsburg · at home
1-2
Lost at home against FC Augsburg

A defeat that defied the run of play. Bayer Leverkusen created 3.8 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 1. FC Augsburg generated just 1.33 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Bayer Leverkusen. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
12'P. Schick scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: E. Tapsoba)
15'F. Rieder scores for FC Augsburg (assist: D. Giannoulis)
90'F. Rieder scores for FC Augsburg
3.8
xG Created
1.33
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-04-18 · vs FC Augsburg · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 3.8 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.8-1.33
MW22 · 2026-02-21 · vs Union Berlin · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.94-0.55
MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs FC Augsburg · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.63-1.28

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-25 · vs 1. FC Köln · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.33-3.04
MW11 · 2025-11-22 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.1-2.13
MW29 · 2026-04-11 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.63-1.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4.5
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (162 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 65.7 xG - clinical finishing
+0.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.8 fewer goals than the 46.2 xGA opponents generated
+0.7
Total CLS+17

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bayer Leverkusen are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available