Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+13
CLS Score

Bayer Leverkusen are getting roughly what they deserve. 52 points vs 50.86 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

52
Points
Expected: 50.86
60
Goals Scored
xG: 56.14
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 37.13
1.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 30 · 2026-04-18 · vs FC Augsburg · at home
1-2
Lost at home against FC Augsburg

A defeat that defied the run of play. Bayer Leverkusen created 3.8 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 1. FC Augsburg generated just 1.33 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Bayer Leverkusen. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
12'P. Schick scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: E. Tapsoba)
15'F. Rieder scores for FC Augsburg (assist: D. Giannoulis)
90'F. Rieder scores for FC Augsburg
3.8
xG Created
1.33
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-04-18 · vs FC Augsburg · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 3.8 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.8-1.33
MW22 · 2026-02-21 · vs Union Berlin · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.94-0.55
MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs FC Augsburg · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.63-1.28

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-22 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.1-2.13
MW29 · 2026-04-11 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.63-1.3
MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs FC St. Pauli · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.69-0.82

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (149 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 56.1 xG - clinical finishing
+2.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 37.1 xGA opponents generated
-2
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.7
Total CLS+13

Rank Per Signal

Where Bayer Leverkusen ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Injury Burden
1
18
-2.7
7
Defensive Luck
1
18
-2
11
xPTS Gap
1
18
+1.7
13
Finishing Luck
1
18
+2.5
13
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+2.3
18
Discipline
1
18
+3.6
18
Schedule Strength
1
18
+7.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bayer Leverkusen are right where they belong. Their CLS of +13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

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