Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-5
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 8.92 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 8.92
10
Goals Scored
xG: 9.9
5
Goals Conceded
xGA: 3.74
1.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-29 · vs SV Elversberg · away
2-3
Lost away against SV Elversberg

One of those games where nothing went right. Bayer Leverkusen generated 1.88 xG, comfortably more than the 1.27 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Bayer Leverkusen. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
8'L. Petkov scores for SV Elversberg (assist: F. Onyeka)
9'C. Campbell scores for SV Elversberg
46'D. Mokwa Ntusu scores for SV Elversberg (assist: L. Petkov)
77'P. Schick scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: I. Maza)
90'C. Kofane scores for Bayer Leverkusen
1.88
xG Created
1.27
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs SV Elversberg · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.88-1.27
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs FC Augsburg · Away-1.3 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.64-1.11
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Union Berlin · Home+0.3 pts
Won 4-0 home. xG: 3.1-0.4. Read match report →
Score: 4-0 | xG: 3.11-0.39

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-20 · vs RB Leipzig · Home+0.8 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 2.3-1.0.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.27-0.97
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Union Berlin · Home+0.3 pts
Won 4-0 home. xG: 3.1-0.4. Read match report →
Score: 4-0 | xG: 3.11-0.39
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs FC Augsburg · Away+-1.3 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.64-1.11

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.8
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 9.9 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-0.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (24 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 3.7 xGA opponents generated
-0.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.1
Total CLS-5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bayer Leverkusen are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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