1. FC Köln

1. FC Köln CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-14
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

1. FC Köln are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 5.63 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 5.63
6
Goals Scored
xG: 7.87
9
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.92
1.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Hamburger SV · away
1-2
Lost away against Hamburger SV

One of those games where nothing went right. 1. FC Köln generated 1.41 xG, comfortably more than the 1.45 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for 1. FC Köln. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
44'N. Capaldo scores for Hamburger SV (assist: A. Gronbaek)
49'Y. Poulsen scores for Hamburger SV (assist: A. Gronbaek)
90'R. Ache scores for 1. FC Köln (assist: E. Skhiri)
1.41
xG Created
1.45
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Hamburger SV · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.41-1.45
MW2 · 2026-09-04 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 2.9 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 2.86-3.47
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Werder Bremen · Home-0.7 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.6-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.65-1.12

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.95-1.88
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+-0.7 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.6-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.65-1.12
MW2 · 2026-09-04 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away+-1.1 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 2.9 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 2.86-3.47

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 7.9 xG - wasting chances
-4
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (17 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 7.9 xGA opponents generated
-0.4
Total CLS-14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

1. FC Köln are right where they belong. Their CLS of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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