Alaves

Alaves CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-26
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Alaves can't catch a break. 43 points when the data says they deserve closer to 49.91? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (+12.2 CLS impact). Low injury burden (85 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

43
Points
Expected: 49.91
43
Goals Scored
xG: 44.93
54
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.53
6.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-08 · vs Girona · away
0-1
Lost away against Girona

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Alaves generated 1.84 xG, comfortably more than the 0.85 their opponent managed. Girona generated just 0.85 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Alaves. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
16'V. Tsygankov scores for Girona (assist: B. Gil)
1.84
xG Created
0.85
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-08 · vs Girona · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.84-0.85
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.95-0.48
MW32 · 2026-04-21 · vs Real Madrid · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.76-1.62

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Athletic Club · Away+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.09-1.08
MW21 · 2026-01-25 · vs Real Betis · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.27-1.38
MW36 · 2026-05-13 · vs Barcelona · Home+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.66-0.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (85 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+12.2
xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-11.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 46.5 xGA opponents generated
-9.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-9.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 44.9 xG - wasting chances
-2.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.8
Total CLS-26

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -26, Alaves are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
05-23
H
Rayo Vallecano
Bet