Alaves

Alaves CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+14
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Alaves are getting roughly what they deserve. 11 points vs 10.25 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

11
Points
Expected: 10.25
11
Goals Scored
xG: 9.02
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.98
0.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-09-15 · vs Valencia · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Valencia

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Alaves. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
78'L. Rioja scores for Valencia (assist: J. Guerra)
1.05
xG Created
0.65
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-09-15 · vs Valencia · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.05-0.65
MW2 · 2026-08-20 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Away-1.4 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2-0.42
MW5 · 2026-09-12 · vs Racing Santander · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.98-2.01

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-08-28 · vs Villarreal · Home+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.81-1.4
MW4 · 2026-09-06 · vs Osasuna · Home+1.9 pts
Won 5-2 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 5-2 | xG: 1.2-1.64
MW7 · 2026-09-19 · vs Athletic Club · Away+0.8 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.1-1.6.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.05-1.62

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 9.0 xG - clinical finishing
+3.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 8.0 xGA opponents generated
+2.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (22 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.3
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.7
xPTS Gap
0.8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Total CLS+14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Alaves are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

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