AS Roma

AS Roma Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+15
Luck Index Score

AS Roma are getting roughly what they deserve. 54 points vs 47.55 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

54
Points
Expected: 47.55
42
Goals Scored
xG: 40.91
28
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.51
6.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 22 · 2026-01-25 · vs AC Milan · at home
1-1
Drew at home against AC Milan

A draw that felt like a loss. AS Roma created 2.72 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. AC Milan created almost nothing - just 0.45 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for AS Roma. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'A. Bonny scores for Inter (assist: N. Barella)
2.72
xG Created
0.45
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs Inter · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.35-0.63
MW3 · 2025-09-14 · vs Torino · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.14-0.65
MW22 · 2026-01-25 · vs AC Milan · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 2.7 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.72-0.45

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs Hellas Verona · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.95-1.38
MW30 · 2026-03-22 · vs Lecce · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.83-1.03
MW9 · 2025-10-29 · vs Parma · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.01-1.21

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+11.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (153 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-10.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 34.5 xGA opponents generated
+6.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 40.9 xG - clinical finishing
+4.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.5
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.5
Total Luck Index+15

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Lazio
Lazio
11W-11D-9L
+2Neutral
#9 in league
Napoli
Napoli
20W-5D-6L
+33Lucky
#2 in league
AC Milan
AC Milan
18W-9D-4L
+35Lucky
#3 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

AS Roma are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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