AS Roma

AS Roma CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+9
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

AS Roma are getting roughly what they deserve. 13 points vs 10.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

13
Points
Expected: 10.7
14
Goals Scored
xG: 12.82
3
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.57
2.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Inter · at home
2-2
Drew at home against Inter

One of those games where nothing went right. AS Roma generated 1.66 xG, comfortably more than the 2.86 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 0.8 points for AS Roma. They got 1. That's 0.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'Manu Koné scores for AS Roma (assist: Nahuel Molina)
37'Manu Koné scores for AS Roma (assist: Gianluca Mancini)
46'Lautaro Martínez scores for Inter (assist: Marcus Thuram)
79'Lautaro Martínez scores for Inter
1.66
xG Created
2.86
Opp. xG
0.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Inter · Home+0.2 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.7-2.9.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.66-2.86
MW1 · 2026-08-24 · vs Fiorentina · Home+0.3 pts
Won 4-0 home. xG: 3.1-0.3.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 3.07-0.35
MW2 · 2026-08-31 · vs Lecce · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-0 away. xG: 3.3-0.8.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 3.27-0.8

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-14 · vs Torino · Away+1.0 pts
Won 2-0 away. xG: 1.9-0.9.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.85-0.86
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Atalanta · Home+0.4 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 3.0-0.7.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.97-0.7
MW2 · 2026-08-31 · vs Lecce · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-0 away. xG: 3.3-0.8.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 3.27-0.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 12.8 xG - clinical finishing
+3.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.2
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (13 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 5.6 xGA opponents generated
+1.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Total CLS+9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

AS Roma are right where they belong. Their CLS of +9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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