AS Roma

AS Roma CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+28
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

AS Roma have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+14.3 CLS impact). 10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

70
Points
Expected: 60.1
57
Goals Scored
xG: 51.69
31
Goals Conceded
xGA: 38.51
9.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2025-10-18 · vs Inter · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Inter

One of those games where nothing went right. AS Roma generated 1.35 xG, comfortably more than the 0.63 their opponent managed. Inter generated just 0.63 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for AS Roma. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'A. Bonny scores for Inter (assist: N. Barella)
1.35
xG Created
0.63
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs Inter · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.35-0.63
MW3 · 2025-09-14 · vs Torino · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.14-0.65
MW22 · 2026-01-25 · vs AC Milan · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 2.7 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.72-0.45

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs Hellas Verona · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.95-1.38
MW30 · 2026-03-22 · vs Lecce · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.83-1.03
MW9 · 2025-10-29 · vs Parma · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.01-1.21

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+14.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 51.7 xG - clinical finishing
+10.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (177 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 fewer goals than the 38.5 xGA opponents generated
+6.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.2
Total CLS+28

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

AS Roma are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
05-24
A
Hellas Verona
Bet